But remember, one of Lord Pep’s maxims is that you can’t trust anyone. Perfect strangers in the shape of Russian teams can come to the Camp Nou and beat us. Last year, an ickle Segunda B team knocked Real Madrid out of the Copa del Rey, Iker Casillas notwithstanding, not to mention that it was an ickle Segunda B team that yesterday beat Real Madrid 4-0.

So, we’re taking this match seriously. And, to demonstrate our commitment to give a good show and make every team we face feel important, we’re only leaving home a few guys: Leo Messi, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Carles Puyol, Xavi Hernández, Andrés Iniesta and Gerard Piqué. I don’t know whether you’ve ever heard of any of them, but if it helps, I was told that Piqué is the guy who made a series of ads for a jeweler’s.

What do you mean we’re *not* taking this match seriously? Absences? What absences?

Yes, yes, of course it’s understandable. Messi, for a start, needs a rest after the chaos of internationals and giving his all against Rubin Kazan and Zaragoza. Ibrahimovic still has some pain in the knee that an Albanian knocked. Puyol was complaining about his ankle in the second half against Zaragoza. Piqué and Xavi have played virtually everything for both Barcelona and Spain, and need a bit of a rest. And Iniesta is picking up the pace after his injury.

What do we have instead? Well, the list of players Pep is taking reads like this: Valdés, Pinto; Benítez, Chygrynskiy, Márquez, Fontàs, Abidal, Maxwell; Touré, Jonathan dos Santos, Busquets, Gai Assulin, Keita; Pedro, Jeffren, Bojan and Jonatan Soriano. Yes, five boys from the youth team, and one of them will have to watch the match from the stands, though, since we can only enter 16 players for Copa del Rey matches.

Our main problem is the right flank. With Dani Alves experiencing a serious injury for the first time since he joined us, and Puyol having a bit of a well-deserved rest, we’ve had to reach into the spring of young players that is Barça B in search of a solution. And found that they’re also having problems covering the right flank. So we’ve dug deeper and came up with a young man called Iván Benítez (no relation to Rafa, I hope), who usually plays fullback but can adapt to fill in Dani’s big shoes. Pep’s other option, of course, is to take one of the two very talented men we have running on the opposite flank and make them change sides, but to be honest I’d rather have a young one giving his all, than Maxwell or Abidal trying to get used to the new position.

OMG! It’s Pep Guardiola. He’s talking to me. He’s touching me! He knows my name! Breathe, now, Iván, breathe...

Elsewhere, we’re flush with talent. Bojan, who was vital in getting the Copa last season, is back from injury and itching to play; Pedrito can come in anytime with his providential, oh-so-elegant goals; Jeffren got a few minutes’ play against Zaragoza in what seems a move designed to prep him for this match. Touré, Busquets and the Man of the Week, Keita, can lend some gravitas to the midfield. Rafa Marquez and Chygrynskiy can get more time on the pitch to recover their form after their respective injuries. Maxwell and Abidal both have done well and more than well playing on the left.

My predicted line-up?

————————–Pinto————————-
Benítez—Márquez—Chygrysnkiy—Maxwell
————————Touré————————–
——————Busquets—Keita———————-
—————-Jeffren—Bojan—Pedrito—————–

With Fontás to come in if Rafa or Dima get into trouble, and possibly some experimenting in the midfield, according to how willing Cultural Leonesa are to roll over and play dead (my guess? Not much). Gai Assulin or former Espanyolista Jonathan Soriano can sub in for any of the strikers.

Now, what do we know about our rivals? Preciously little, to be honest. They were delighted to be drawn against us, and promptly hiked out the price of the tickets to their seat, the Reino de León stadium, and sold them out. Their star player is Barcelona born-and-bred Jito, who is a declared fan of our local enemies, Espanyol; he’s a nice, effective striker who has scored 9 of the 9 goals the Cultural Leonesa has on their tally this season, and I bet he’d love to put one past Pinto.

I couldn’t find a bigger picture, but look at them! They’re dressed in white! Isn’t that enough for us to want to beat them?

Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa was founded in 1923, as a result of joining Gimnástica and La Victoria, two smaller teams of the city of León. In 1926, it won the fifth-tier championship, and made it into Segunda by 1927. Their biggest achievement so far has been to play a whole season (54-55) in la Liga as we know it, although they couldn’t keep up with the big boys and have dithered between the lower tiers since then.

So far, this season has been poor for them. They are sitting 17th out of the 20 teams of their group in Segunda B, with only two wins, four draws and four losses to their name; their goal average wouldn’t keep anyone awake at night. However, Josu Uribe, their manager, thinks that “victory is possible”, but also that “a draw here in León wouldn’t be a bad result”.

Pep, on the other hand, has made clear that we are taking the match seriously and that Barça “never gives away anything. Not a match, much less a competition”; he acknowledges that having a return leg makes things easier for Barcelona, but also reminds us that last season we barely got past Segunda B team Benidorm at this stage (Pep, always so optimistic!).

Me, I’m happy. Sunday’s match against Zaragoza quelled any doubts I could have harboured about the team. I’m full of confidence in the young ones, who are going to try their damnedest to impress Pep. I predict a comfortable 0-3 victory for Barça. And you?

Now to Business. It’s our first Champions League game and destiny wanted Eto’o to come back to Our Cathedral, but destiny can wait a few weeks while we visit Italy to see him there. There has been tons of hype for this game, primarily around the Eto’o vs. Ibra matchup at the front and the Guardiola vs. Mourinho matchup on the sideline. That’s all good and interesting but I don’t think that’s gonna win the game, the game will be won in midfield where Xavi and Ghostface will have to outclass Sneijder and Zanetti, and BigYa will have to outmuscle Muntari/Stankovic and Motta.

This matchup should be a great test to see how we can actually do in Europe after a strong start against less illustrious competition (no offense to Getafe and Gijon).

The good news: Ghostface should be healthy enough to start and Ibracadabra has been getting his goal on recently

The bad news: Puyol and Pique both left practice with “muscular discomfort” which now means that our only healthy CB is Chygnasty…oh wait, he can’t play in Europe…shit. And Marquez still isn’t healthy.

So the Starting XI looks like it’ll be
———————Valdes———————
Alves–Piquenbauer/ElCapitan–BigYa—MaxwellHouse
————Xavi—-Keita—-Ghostface——–
—-Messi——–Ibracadabra—–Henry——

Usually I would’ve gone with Busi2.0 in there instead of Keita, but Keita’s playing beyond expectations and he’s earned that starting spot. One of the two CBs will have to get better by game time or we might be in trouble, Abidal could cover that spot but I can’t even remember the last time he played CB for FCB. Aside from that I can’t imagine someone having an argument for a different front 5.

Hasta la Victoria! Barça!!

Have at it!

Okay. It’s time. It’s Tuesday (well not in Chicago, but in many parts of the world, including Barcelona. Speculation is rife, and Isaiah is going to get us all fired up like crazy folks with a rip-roaring preview that will make us all frothy-mouthed culeniacs.

But for now, let’s use our thinking caps and figure out formation, starting XI and tactics.

Here’s the squad list:

Valdes, Pinto, Puyol, Pique, Sylvinho, Botia, Muniesa, Caceres, The Yaya, Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Keita, Henry, Eto’o, Iniesta, Messi, Gudjohnsen, Hleb, Krkic

Tactically, the expectation is that we won’t deviate much from the traditional Barca formation. It works almost all of the time, so why mess with success, right? Right?

And hey, guess what? With me writing this mini-post, I get to be first (yay!). Here’s how I’d like to see things go:

————————————–Valdes————————————————
Puyol——————Pique——————————Caceres—————Sylvinho
————————————The Yaya——————————————-
———————-Xavi———————————–Iniesta——————–
Messi——————————–Henry————————————Krkic

(or if Guardiola insists on starting Eto’o)

Eto’o—————————–Messi————————————–Henry

Why? Because Henry is going to be injured, and he isn’t going to have his usual acceleration and burst, plus I think that seeing him at central striker will put the fear of the Blaugrana God into United. I like Krkic on the wing to start (with a quick yank for Eto’o if he gags it up), because he doesn’t disappear the way that Eto’o does and with his much better touch, he won’t lose the ball, leading to counterattacks.

And yes, I say put Caceres in the back line, mostly because The Yaya is too valuable in midfield. Sylvinho gets left back because he knows how to play the ball and stay at home, which will be all that is needed, as long as we don’t concede set pieces.

This is a fairly traditional setup except for the inclusion of Krkic. Yes, I’m aware of the potential mental complexities in telling Eto’o that he can’t start the biggest match of the year, Clasicos notwithstanding. He’s a big boy and a professional, so he should suck it up.

The option 2 front line makes Messi more difficult to defend by giving him a larger area. Eto’o is going to have to man up and kick some butt on the right wing.

Goal.com had a no-brainer “5 ways that we can win” piece. Short version:

Take advantage of Alves and Abidal’s absences by making the backs stay at home.
Messi has to tear it up, yo.
Beware of counterattacks and Thong Boy.
Finish the chances we get.
Get in that ass on the right side of their defense (hear that, Henry and Iniesta?).

Oh, yeah….and the sun rises in the east. I say attack, attack, attack, capitalizing on the freedom created by a stay-at-home back line.

And that’s what I think. What about y’all?

This one won’t take long. It was a meaningless match that was mostly played like one. Guardiola took the opportunity to rest every potential Champions League starter except for the man you see here, Samuel Eto’o.

This picture sums things up quite well for some. As we all know, Eto’o missed about 4 gilt-edged chances to knock in goals against the side that he has said he wants to retire with, Mallorca. Some suggest that those chances went begging because of his tortured soul, and a body that just couldn’t score against his beloved.

I’m calling bullshit on that one.

The starting lineup was pretty crazy: Oier, Alves, Caceres, Abidal, Sylvinho, Xavi (but the other one, Torres), Hleb, Gudjohnsen, Pedro!!!, Krkic, Eto’o.

Obviously, Guardiola wants Eto’o to go pichichi, and figured that this would be an excellent opportunity, as the match would be as wide open as day. And it was. So 10 minutes in, when Eto’o knocked in a header (a bit lucky?) off an excellent pass from Krkic, we all thought that it was off to the races, right?

Wrong. We squandered chances, missed passes, and generally played like a makeshift side of substitutes and B teamers.

Which was what we were. 2-1 isn’t a bad result against a team that was playing for real. Anyone who doubts that Mallorca would not have been in for a right smart clubbing had our real starting XI rolled out, is kidding themselves.

There were bright spots, such as the energetic, aggressive play of Krkic, who is saying every time he steps onto the pitch, “Don’t loan me or sell me. I got something fo’ yo’ ass.” He might never be a straight-up “9,” but he’s probably going to make one hell of a winger/secondary striker, and I don’t mean years from now.

Eto’o was right there time and time again, only to be let down by his touch or finishing. He even missed a penalty that could have tied the match, striking the post and saving the keeper who guessed right, but moved a bit too late.

When Mallorca started pressing, it was only a matter of time, as we didn’t really have midfield control, which makes our back line so vulnerable. The tying goal came off one hell of a free kick, after Abidal gave up a foul in a dangerous position. Not sure if Valdes or Casillas would have stopped that one. Maybe they would have set the wall differently, or shaded in that direction. But simple reality is that Oier wasn’t going to stop that one. The B Boys don’t see kicks like that one. He’s probably still wondering where the hell that one came from.

The second goal was a bit lucky, a directed strike at an angle off the back of the attacker’s head. Hell of a goal to make it 2-1. Was the marking a little funky? Sure. But if it takes a goal such as that one to beat you, hats off.

Some would even argue that justice was served, that the penalty really shouldn’t have been. I agree that the penalty shouldn’t have been, but Eto’o still should have converted it.

But that’s life for a side that is playing out the string and doesn’t really have that much to play for, except a few statistics.

Team: 4 Not surprisingly, it was a mess, with guys all over the place, passes either too hard or too soft, no support at key times and a general “Hey, who are you” kind of feel.

Guardiola: 5 Rolled the dice and came up snake eyes. Got some pitch time for people such as Sylvinho and Caceres, who might figure in the Champions League final. Nice gray suit.

Oier Olazabal: 5 He made one hell of a save, but dropped a lot of balls. A work in progress.

Alves: 7 A defensive demon today, though his offense is still suffering. Perhaps he isn’t to blame this time out, with nobody really to play with.

Caceres: 5 Some good, and some bad. He has the pace to make up for positional flaws, but he definitely has positional flaws that lead to attackers getting into places they shouldn’t be. Then he has to take a risk with a tackle or stop.

Abidal: 6 Very solid until Mallorca got serious about trying to score, then he showed why he’s a left back. Silly foul to give up that led to the tying free kick, and was scrambling about in general. He gets a look of panic in his eyes that I don’t like when he’s stressed, because it usually leads to him doing something unfortunate.

Sylvinho: 6 He was Sylvinho. Very solid and calm, smart with the ball and his positioning on the pitch. Man, I like him so much, even if he isn’t anything approaching the man he once was.

Xavi Torres: 5 Not the real Xavi. He was also a foul machine, which was to be expected, given the pace and movement differences in the top flight. But he shows much promise.

Hleb: 3 Once Isaiah and I asked, “Is Hleb still on?” Then we saw him milling about at the bottom of the telly screen. This should have been a match where he took off like a rocket. But I’m afraid he might be too damaged at this point, which bums me out. A few bright moments do not a good match make.

Gudjohnsen: 5 Good Monument today. He keeps the ball and facilitates ball control. Now, he lacks ultimate pace and doesn’t have that knack that great players have for being where the ball is but all in all, a very solid effort sullied by some “bear with the car keys” moments.

Krkic: 8 I like, I like! His passing and movement were exceptional. He was the best player for us on the pitch today. His confidence seems to be returning. He’s not as fast as he is very, very quick. He’s much better in space than in the confines of the box, as we saw today.

Pedro!!!: 6 Really nice effort, but he needs to learn to be more decisive with the ball, as he was during pre-season and during his star turn against Juventus, again during pre-season. I like his attacks, and he plays better with a better surrounding cast. Takes chances with passes, which can be good and bad.

Eto’o: 1 The goal was lucky, more a result of the pass, and after that he was just terrible at his main job, that of striker. Here’s a question: If you do 90% of a job, should you get credit for that portion? Let’s say you’re building a chair. You get the back, the seat and three of the legs right, but that fourth leg just won’t stay on. That was Eto’o. He got into the positions, made the moves, took the passes, but either stone-footed it or shot it right at the keeper. If he chips or bends a shot it’s in and done. But he doesn’t/didn’t, and that’s life.

Substitutes

Thiago (for Gudjohnsen): incomplete Welcome to the future, everyone, in which you might see Assulin passing to Thiago, as the side rushes up the pitch.

Jeffren (for Pedro): incomplete I liked seeing him, but he didn’t really have much effect.

I’m brewing up a post on player fairness regarding the matter of Eto’o, from some thoughts that have been kicking around in my head. Expect it in a day or two.

And that’s what I know.

So. Isaiah is in Chicago, probably still at roller derby, where I left him for some much-needed beauty sleep.

And then it occurred to me: If he’s in Chicago, and I’m beauty sleeping, who, oh who, would write up the match preview?

Now I have to be all ugly and stuff, because I’m staying up late to do this. I hope you’re all happy.

And this won’t be much of a preview, because (everybody, repeat after me) this match doesn’t matter. I mean it does for those stat-hungry folks, right? We’re 5 goals away from setting a Liga record for scoring ‘em. But we won’t be able to crack the astounding 100-point barrier, though for a while it looked as if we would. Ah, those pesky stumbles.

But still, this match doesn’t matter, thanks to Villarreal handing the EE their just desserts. Would we all have rather have clinched it last week, when the Camp Nou would have been lifted from its moorings by the howling? Absolutely. Everybody except the Barcelona sanitation workers were hoping for such a thing, but it wasn’t to be.

And now it is. The Double. Copa and Liga, with Champions League next up, on May 27th.

First, however, there is the matter of Mallorca. They’re 10th in the table, and we have them at their (sharp-eyed Vj) home. But they about as much to play for at this point as we do, since they’re far from the relegation zone and also far from a European spot. There’s that pride business I suppose, if that stuff matters. But does it really, to professional athletes just trying to make it to the end of the season whole and healthy?

Good question.

Here’s the squad list, with the players who I don’t think should be anywhere near the pitch in bold: Valdes, Pinto, Oier (backup keeper from B), Alves, Puyol, Pique, Caceres, Abidal, Sylvinho, Xavi, Victor Sanchez, The Yaya, Busquets, Keita, Hleb, Gudjohnsen, Pedro!!!, Krkic, Messi, Eto’o.

Which means my starting XI would be: Pinto, Alves, Caceres, Victor Sanchez, Sylvinho, Keita, Busquets, Hleb, Gudjohnsen, Pedro!!!, Krkic.

Yes, we will need to get some pitch time for the big boys, so that they aren’t all stale for the Champions League final. So run them out for about a half-hour in the next match, them wrap ‘em in cotton wool and return them all to the prayer vigil over Thierry Henry’s knee.

Oh. Did I mention that WE ARE CHAMPIONS??!!

Whew.

Just checking.

Prediction? I predict that there will be a match played, and that I hope we will win. A lot depends on how serious Mallorca is.

Okay. 2-1 good guys. Happy now?

To make yourselves even happier, gaze in wonder at the Liga trophy, which is about to return to its rightful resting place, in the bosom of the Camp Nou.

Mmmm!

So reason to get excited: 1) Numbers (is that redundant?), 2) Puyol and Iniesta, and 3) a squad list.

Oh and the game might not be televised. That’s reason number 4, I suppose. Apparently there’s a dispute between La Liga, several of La Liga’s clubs (including Valladolid), and Audiovisual Sport, a TV company. There’s almost always some dispute at the beginning of the year concerning payments to clubs for various matches being televised and the first few weeks of the league are sometimes not televised because these contracts haven’t been ironed out. It seems, however, that Spain (or at least RFEF) has trouble with these contracts, for whatever reason. I don’t profess to know the ins and outs of these contracts nor do I have a pro-American viewpoint in terms of televised sports, but there’s a fairly straightforward way to deal with these things and I do think the NFL has a fairly good handle on what’s going to earn the most money possible. It’s not that I like most of the matchups on NBC’s night game or anything, but rather that the contracts are the contracts are the contracts. You’ll never get a midseason blackout simply because CBS decided that no, it didn’t really want to pay for a particular game or whatever. It’s RFEF’s responsibility to get all the teams onto one contract (or multiple if they so desire) and that’s that. No games should be lost because if you can’t figure something out in 3 months, you’re a turdbag and you deserve to be beaten with a sponge mop (the soft end).

So yeah, I’m blaming RFEF for not structuring the league properly, even if that’s not possible within Spanish law. I don’t particularly care because I think that if we’re going to use this whole capitalism thing we should use it the right way: to broadcast Barça games. There, I said it. My politics are out. I’m not a liberal or a conservative, a capitalist or a socialist; I’m a Barcelonista.

Back to regularly scheduled programming:
There’s a squad list! A squad list!

Valdés, Pinto, Alves, Piqué, Puyol, Márquez, Martín Cáceres, Sylvinho, Xavi, Busquets, Keita, Iniesta, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Eto’o, Henry, Bojan, Pedro!

Pedro!

I play with Pedro! in FIFA 09 in my Be A Pro season that isn’t the one that I play as Messi in. I’ve made it to being noticed by the national team in only 7 games, which is sweet, but it’ll be a few more before I’m actually called up. Speaking of which, congratulations to Sergi Busquets for making his international debut against Turkey in the 2-1 come-from-behind win. Looked like a dramatic game, too bad I was working like a chump and couldn’t watch.

So, what to make of this lineup? We get Puyol and Iniesta back a couple of days before Bayern Munich hit town with a whole lot of Champions League glory on the line. The decisions, therefore, are who to rest and for how long? Those are the questions to keep in mind as we go through who Valladolid.

Real Valladolid CF, based in, you guessed it, Valladolid, which is a city near-ish Madrid in the center of the country with a population of just over 300,000. If you’re visiting this week, check out the Semana Santa goings on. They’re currently 9th in the table with 39 points, 26 of which have been earned at home. That’s exactly 2/3 for any of you math majors out there. So they’re obviously much stronger at home (8W-2D-4L, 21GF 14GA) than they are away (4W-1D-9L, 21GF, 32GA). The thing is, you’re pretty much guaranteed (by statistics) to allow a goal per game and half of the time you’re going to concede a second to the pucela. Not that that’s how it worked out when they visited the Camp Nou on November 8, when Eto’o scored a first half quadruple (double brace? hat trick and a foul?) and Barça ran out 6-0 winners. Yet, the next week when Real Madrid came knocking on the doors of their Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid were the winners, 1-0.

You can’t underestimate an opponent and expect to win, especially not a team that has also taken the scalp of Villarreal (0-3 at the Madrigal) and Sevilla (3-2 at the José Zorrilla). Yes, they’re in 9th place, yes they’re total GF is -4, but as I argued in my State of the Liga, they’re taking someone big down before the end of the year. It wasn’t Sevilla, who got a 4-1 revenge win at the Sanchez Pizjuan last weekend, so you never know with Barça, especially coming off an international break and having two automatic starters returning from injury. And we’re also missing The Yaya, who would obviously have scored a hat trick were he playing, just cause.

So who do we start against a team that has allowed only 4 more goals at home than Barça themselves have allowed? And, to be perfectly clear, Barça has allowed 14 goals away. We’re going to get scored on, that much is certain, so how do we inject some offensive verve into a team that has so many offensive stars coming back from international duty. Also Hleb is injured. Don’t know if that’s worth mentioning, but there it is.

Here’s my suggested lineup: Valdes, Alves, Marquez, Puyol, Sylvinho, Busi, Keita, Iniesta, Henry, Eto’o, Bojan.

I want to start Pedro!, I really do, but this is about winning the league, not giving Pedro! time on the field. He can get his if we’re up 3-0 or if we’re out of offensive options and we want to replace Sylvinho or Busi with a striker. My substitutions would be as follows (in a perfect world): Caceres on for Puyol after 60 or 65 minutes, Xavi/Pedro on for Iniesta/Busi after 60 or 65 minutes, and Messi on for Bojan/Henry after 65 or 70 minutes. The reason for this is to conserve all of the players involved in that rotation. If we can afford not to have Xavi on the field, so be it, but I don’t necessarily think that is the best option. I’d prefer Xavi and Messi going on and getting some feel to the Barça before the Bayern match, just to make sure they’re back in game-speed rhythm with all of their buddies.

Here are my reasons for starting everyone else: Alves is unstoppable, unflappable, and a freakin’ machine. Plus we don’t really have anyone else to play right back unless we put a just-off-injury Puyol there and that’s not a good idea cause he’ll run himself retarded and break his own legs if need be to clear a ball that is already going out. And Cruyff bless him for it. Then we’ve got Marquez and Puyol in the middle to command all there is to command. Marquez is rested after being suspended for the Honduras-Mexico game (suck it, Sven, you’re a terrible coach and that’s all there is to it) while Puyol should be able to put in just over half a game and get back into a real rhythm. Sylvinho is on the left because I prefer to rest Caceres after an Uruguay match and because he (Sylvinho) wasn’t (surprisingly) called up for the Seleção so he’s well-rested.

In the middle I prefer Busi to Keita as the holding DM/”pivote” and I prefer Keita as the roaming crazy man to Gudjohnsen. Keita, too, is coming back from internationals, but his extreme athleticism doesn’t seem to be in question by many, so let him have a go at it. You could put Guddie here, but that, to me, would be a mistake without having Xavi at his side to dictate the flow of the game. Iniesta can handle most of those duties, but he will require Keita to play slightly more defensively than he does when Xavi is on the field because Iniesta tends to push the tempo more than Xavi, both via the air and via his own dribbling skills.

In the front there’s Henry, who I’d really prefer to give a rest, but I don’t think we can afford to have both Henry and Messi out and because of the travel and altitude change, Messi needs the rest more, I would think. Henry is wily and won’t run himself into the ground, which is good and also something that probably can’t be said about Messi. Eto’o gets the start in the middle because dude is a lion and lions need to feast when the feasting is good. He’s coming back from losing with Cameroon and he’s going to be pissed about it enough that Valladolid might suggest their players call in sick. Bojan is rested and can play on the right, so give him a chance to do so, or put in Pedro!. Bojan could use more playing time, I think, and he’s a much more polished product than Pedro! is, so I think there will be more immediate team cohesion if it’s Bojan who gets the start over Pedro!. And we’ll need team cohesion to beat a solid Valladolid side.

So here is my Official Prediction: 2-1 Barça. Don’t expect fireworks, people, because we’re going to be tired and a bit out of sync. But Eto’o will grab a brace. Awesomeness.

As incredible as the first part is, the second part is even more stunning. And I have the oddest feeling that, after tomorrow’s game, Numancia will still be the only team to beat FCB once. Sorry, rojillos, but this is the end of the line for your winning streak against Barcelona.

Naturally I’m biased, since this is a Barcelona blog, after all, but just on the surface, without details, how Numancia got one game off of us is beyond me. If they somehow manage to win two games against us this year, I’ll post about how great they are, about how cool Soria, Spain is. Why am I so cocky today? Hmm…

Ooh boy, time for statistics! My favorites!

Overall:
Barça: 16W-2D-1L, 59GF 13GA; 2.63pts per game
Numancia: 6W-2D-11L 23GF 37GA; 1.05pts per game

Barça home: 8W-2D-0L, 36GF 6GA; 2.60pts per home game
Numancia away: 1W-0D-9L, 8GF 25GA; 0.30pts per away game

So, if you look at that, without any background information, without squad lists, and without very much knowledge about the game that is soccer (guilty on all but the first account, am I), you’d be hard pressed to find a reason, even if you’re a die hard perico or a madridista, to have the slightest optimism that Numancia can come away with a point. Especially if you consider that Barcelona’s A-Team (there you go, Hector, that’s all you get) was rested in midweek, for the most part. Bringing Yaya, Henry, Eto’o, and Pique all off a week’s rest can’t sound good to Numancia.

But do you despair that I don’t give you enough statistics to mull over? Have no fear, the official site is here! Yay statistics! I still say the thing about assists is stupid, though, so ignore that part.

You know what’s also really cool? Stats about Bojan Krkic. Why? Because they debunk your silly notions, that’s why. Last year Bojan was the startlet of startlets, scoring 10 goals in the league and even notching one in the Champions League, of all places. This year, his goal return is paltry. It is despicably small and he should be loaned out to learn how to score.

Last year: 47 appearances overall; 14 league starts, 17 league sub appearances; 3 Champions League starts, 6 CL sub appearances; 2 Copa starts, 5 sub appearances. Goals: 12, 10 league, 1 CL, 1 Copa.

This year: 23 appearances overall; 1 league start, 11 league sub appearances; 3 Champions league starts, 3 CL sub appearances; 5 Copa starts. Goals: 5, 0 league, 3 CL, 2 Copa.

His 07/08 goals per appearance is 0.255 and his 08/09 goals per appearance is 0.217.* I know that’s a couple of hundredths off, but, to put this in the right perspective, if he had scored 1 more goal in any of his appearances, he’d have a higher goals per appearance rate this year than last year. Yet the kid is getting stick from everywhere for not grabbing goals. Sorry, but that’s not fair. He’s started 1/14th as many games in the league and his subs into the games have generally come in the last few minutes rather than early in the second half. He’s score 3 goals in the Champions League, where he’s made – gasp – 3 starts. So lay off the kid, he’s doing well, especially for someone who gets few starts (he has played 57 minutes as a starter in the league and he averages 20minutes 5 seconds per sub appearance).

Sorry to get sidetracked like that, I meant to post that yesterday as a stand-alone, but I got sidetracked so now you can think about that while you consider potential lineups.

Here is Numancia’s squad list: Juan Pablo, Diego, Juanra, Felipe, Pavón, Sergio Ortega, Boris, Palacios, Bellvis, Juan Carlos Moreno, Nagore, Dimas, Del Pino, Quero, Barkero, Brit, Goiria, Aranda.

Naturally, Guardiola hasn’t given us his squad list, which I’m beginning to really dislike. There should be a league-wide rule about when you release squad lineups and it should be 24-48 hours before the match kicks off. That way, jerks like me can get their lineups set and not look like bigger jerks than they really are. Grr.

So no starting lineup guess form me today, just the official prediction: 3-0. Goals by Eto’o (who screams ridiculously and ends up hugging Guardiola), Messi, and Xavi. I’m going to stop betting on Hleb to score until he starts shooting. Which will be never.

And here is your list of places to watch the game: Where to Watch FC Barcelona. I should be able to update it later today with some San Diego information, so look for that if you’re in the area (thanks, Jason).

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*I know I should do this as a function of minutes played rather than appearances, but I don’t have last year’s minutes figures to work with. His current rate is a goal every 209minutes 36 seconds. That is, by my rough calculation, a better goals-per-minute average than everyone except for Henry, Messi, and Eto’o. If you can find someone who has a better one that isn’t one of those three, let me know. I’ll give you a sticker.

Injuries: Van Nistelrooy, Diarra, De la Red, Heinze, Sneijder, Miguel Torres, Pepe
Suspended: Robben, Marcelo

Feel free to whine about that all you want, Madridistas, but here’s the probable starting lineup you’ll have: Casillas, Salgado, Metzelder, Cannavaro, Sergio Ramos, Van der Vaart, Gago, Guti, Drenthe, Raul, Higuain. You can’t tell me that that is a poor starting lineup. Well, you can, but if you do you’re not thinking clearly. I do not like Madrid, but I certainly respect their players and I know that there is gobs of talent in that lineup mentioned above. Even if there are one or two different changes made by Juande Ramos, they’ll come out looking basically like that.

The issue might be in the number and quality of subs available to Madrid. As the game wears on, Barcelona will only be made stronger by the potential insertion of players like Bojan and Busquets, rather than weakened by putting on an inexperienced Alberto Bueno (as good as he may be and the merengue faithful over at the Madrid Offside seem to be convinced he’s the second coming of, well, Raul). Not that that’s an excuse because it just proves your cantera is weak, but we’ll probably hear something of the sort if Barça comes out on top.

No matter how I slice and dice the opposing team, though, I always come back to the gaping hole that is Robben’s absence. He’s been their best player this year — at least he has been in the few games of theirs I’ve seen — and the general dismay coming from Marca and Corey (sorry to put you guys in the same sentence) because of his absence suggests that he’s a big deal. If he was the reason for their success in the Champions League against Zenit, then he’ll be sorely missed and his red card against Sevilla will be remembered by a lot of people for a long time.

Marcelo’s absence merely reduces their effectiveness going forward, but with Messi on the wing, it may not be the worst thing in the world that Marcelo is out. I realize that Juande Ramos put Marcelo in the midfield during the Zenit match, but he won’t have that option (or luxury, depending on how you look at it) this time around, so it’s Metzelder from the start and Salgado on the left. Salgado may be decent enough, but he’s over the hill and if he does start on the left against Messi, it will be a long night for him. Both he (Salgado) and Gago are going to have to play out of this world to stop Messi from bearing down on goal every few minutes. And that still might not help because that would free Xavi in the middle. Guti too will have to be able to feed the front trio (or duo, depending on how they’re aligned) with absurd precision in order to get them chances. But then there’s the small matter of one Yaya Toure being in the middle. Guti vs Yaya should be a tremendous battle, like Xavi vs Gago or Messi vs everyone else.

Can Sergio Ramos play on the left? I don’t know, but if he’s on the right, I think that’s the only matchup advantage Madrid has. Henry can’t beat him for pace, so we’ll have opportunities only if whoever is backing up Henry makes proper overlapping runs or can squeeze into the middle, finding gaps left unfilled by Canna and Gago. Henry needs to have a good game, but a good game would be providing smooth passes to other attackers, not grabbing a couple of goals (though that would be splendid). Another question mark for the Madrid defense will be whether or not Sergio Ramos is allowed to make runs forward, thus leaving Henry open on the wing to take on Cannavaro, a matchup I’m much, much more confident about, especially with Eto’o and Messi making runs into the box at the same time.

Well, there, I’ve covered their team. Basically, same as always: come out to play and kiss the game goodbye. Park the bus and you’ll never have a chance to win, but you might just come out with a point. If you’re lucky. What I mean is:

Typically, form and table position doesn’t matter at all when it comes to el Clásico, but it’s probably a bit silly to not put the match into its proper context. I haven’t had a chance to research whether or not relative table position has historical statistical leanings (like whether or not the higher ranked team typically gets a better result) or not, but it’s probable that such an analysis would suggest that Barcelona have the advantage both as the home team and as the higher ranked team. I don’t know if this is true, but that’s my hypothesis. [And then I discover this, from the Barça official site: "Barça and Real Madrid have met 78 times in the league at Camp Nou and the hosts have won 44 of those games while 16 have ended in draws and 18 have been away wins." Doesn't answer the question, but it helps give some perspective.]

Here are the current stats for both teams:
Barcelona: 1st, 11W-2D-1L, 35pts, 44GF 9GA
Real Madrid: 5th, 8W-2D-4L, 26pts, 33GF 24GA

Here are the Home vs Away stats:
Barcelona (home): 1st, 5W-2D-0L, 17pts (2.43 points per home game), 26GF 5GA
Real Madrid (away): 6th, 3W-1D-3L, 10pts (1.43 points per away game), 9GF 9GA

Barcelona has obviously been the better team throughout the year, averaging a ridiculous 3.71 goals per home game and allowing only 0.71. Real Madrid have average 1.29 goals away while allowing exactly the same (which suggests they average a draw, which, in a sense, they do even though they’ve got only 1 away draw). Barça averages a thumping win. Racing Santander (1-1) and Getafe (1-1) are the two draws, but there are several things that differentiate this match from those two. First, we have more team cohesion as Pep’s system has taken hold. Second, we’ve got Messi back healthy. I do think this changes quite a bit, especially if he’s going to come out fired up since he had such a trash game against Valencia. Time to show the world that you’re still the man, Leo the Lionhearted Messiah.

Now for the good guys, our heroes, the greatest team on earth (I categorically deny any allegations that I am biased!):

The big news coming out of the Camp Nou is that Iniesta is back to full training. Our own little SPF45 is back from his injury, but probably not ready for a starting place. We need to win this game more than we need to win any other game this year, so starting a player who, while obviously our first choice when healthy, has missed several weeks in a row is not the best move. Put in Gudjohnsen and replace him with Iniesta with 30 minutes remaining. (Iniesta has been out since November 4, by the way)

I know it’s hard to believe that I’m arguing for a fully-fit Iniesta to be sat behind Eidur Gudjohnsen, a man whose head I flatly called for in the previous edition of el clásico, but it’s not about skill or even team cohesion; it’s about match fitness, which is a step above anyone who is just returning from a month off 2 days prior to the most important game of the year.

Anyway, lineups, but without the benefit of a squad list. We don’t need one, though, because everyone is good to go except Gabi Milito. Just pick our best squad and that’s who will be there.

Last year’s starting lineup: Valdés, Zambrotta, Puyol, Márquez, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Bojan, Henry

The players in bold are the ones who will start this year, for sure, and then there’s Guddy in italics because there’s the possibility that Kieta, Hleb, Busquets, and Iniesta could step into that spot. I’m positive this is going to be the other 10 in the lineup:

Valdés, Alves, Márquez, Puyol, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o

Christ, that lineup just sounds like an ass kicking. But let’s put it head-to-head against what we’ll most likely see from Madrid:

Valdés, Alves, Márquez, Puyol, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o
Higuain, Raul, Drenthe, Guti, Gago, Van der Vaart, Sergio Ramos, Cannavaro, Metzelder, Salgado, Casillas

I put Madrid in “reverse” order to emphasize the matchups. Whether or not Valdés and Casillas are equal doesn’t matter at all. Valdés isn’t going one-on-one against Casillas, he’s trying to best Madrid’s forwards. The same goes for Casillas: he faces Eto’o and company head on. That means what Marca has done — compare all the players head-to-head — is between vaguely pedantic and as useful as Q-tip in a zombie movie. Abidal gets a minus because he is “Uno de los pocos habituales en el once azulgrana que está por debajo de las expectativas” (because he is “one of the few regular starters that performs below expectation”)…way to not watch a single match of ours this season, Marca. “Ineffective in attack and also hasn’t defended well.” Good points, for sure. Morons. (In their defense, they do bash Gago, though I disagree with their assessment of him as well)

On the field, our weakest point is, perhaps, Drenthe’s section, where he’ll have to be covered by Márquez, who will have the double responsibility of covering Raul and Higuain as they cross in the middle. It’s a tough role to have to play, though Alves will often be back on defense in his Little Engine That Could (Kick Your Ass) mode — that’s his new nickname unless there are objections: Little Engine. Now I know that Drenthe is probably their offensive weakpoint, but he’s still got the skills and putting him in the box with minimal coverage will lead to goals.

As I said, Yaya vs Guti should be the matchup to watch (Gago vs Xavi a close second) because if Yaya cuts off Guti, there is no one really to distribute the ball effectively. I am not convinced that VdV is capable of shouldering the load (though if he is, then putting Keita in would be the way to go because Guddy is not as capable defensively).

What ultimately matters is this: Barcelona vs Real Madrid. In the Camp Nou. Morbo. Saturday afternoon, 4pm Eastern Standard Time, on GolTV. Check out where you can watch it here, at the Where To Watch page. Note that I haven’t included Chicago on the list, but there’s Ginger’s Ale House, The Globe, and like one other that keeps being mentioned. I swear I’ll add them soon.

Please post feeds for those who do not have GolTV or access to a bar with it.

Now, for what you’ve all been waiting for. Official Prediction: 3-1, Barça. Goals by our three forwards, Messi, Eto’o, Henry. Hot damn, son, it’s going to be fun. I won’t be at Nevada Smiths this week because I’ve got other plans. Rock on, kids, and may you have a blast enjoying el clásico, be it your first or your 50th.

Visca el Barça!

Tot el camp
es un clam
som la gent Blau Grana
Tan se val d’on venim
Si del sud o del nord
ara estem d’acord
estem d’acord
una bandera ens agermana.
Blau Grana al vent
un crit valent
tenim un nom
el sap tothom

Barça!, Barça!, Baaaarça!!!!

We beat them last time in a Messi-inspired thriller that left even Kevin grasping at imagery and metaphors, though not words in general. I was on a business trip then and damned lucky to catch the match. This time around I think I’ll be in the comfortable confines of my home with the cat wondering why I’m home so early and disturbing her usual resting place with my yells.

As I wrote in the comments of Kevin’s preview of that game,

I thought Shaktar were being extraordinarily cynical/lame/unsporting when they asked for the ball back before Messi’s first goal. If the player who was injured was injured during the play that the ball was kicked out on, how can anyone mean to kick it out for them? It was just a clearance and it’s not Barcelona’s fault that they stopped playing. Never. Stop. Playing. All teams should be sporting, but you can’t take it too far.

2-2 going into the 80th minute would have been an acceptable scoreline for me, though; Valdes made a terrific save against Ilsinho in the first half that I was positive was going into the back of the net. Nice job, Valdes! The second is not his fault whatsoever (no more than Messi’s second was Pyatov’s fault).

If this were a real match rather than a final hurrah in the group stage, I would probably think they’d be coming in with cleats up and teeth bared and that Yaya would take those cleats and teeth and place them in the nearest Shakhtar…okay that was about get too graphic for this family-oriented site, but you get the picture. That’s the thing, though: it’s not a real match because we’re assured of first place in the group no matter what happens not only in our match, but also in the Sporting CP-Basel match. No matter that Shakhtar put 5 on Basel last time around, they’re still parachuting to UEFA.

Maybe they’ll come in hard in revenge for our win in their stadium, but I don’t know what that would get them other than red cards and ire. For our part, we’ve got a squad list that consists of a lot of subs:

Jorquera, Pinto, Cáceres, Piqué, Sylvinho, Abidal, Gudjohnsen, Busquets, Keita, Hleb, Bojan, Henry, Pedro, Víctor Sánchez, Víctor Vázquez, Botía, Abraham, Xavi Torres.

So, to put it another way, we’re resting Valdes, Alves, Puyol, Marquez, Toure, Xavi (Hernandez), Eto’o, and Messi. That’s an 8-man mega unit if there ever was one. Perhaps they’re going to start forcing us to play that way (a 3-2-2) just to make things fair.

Do you know who Botía and Xavi Torres are? I don’t. Check ‘em out in training. They’re no longer wearing their Més gear, so perhaps that thing is done. I loved seeing the billboards in the background for it during the Valencia match, by the way.

If you don’t follow Barça Atlètic, feel free to check out their official page. Apparently they’re on a 7-game unbeaten streak and are 11th in their division (18 points behind leaders Villarreal B — compare that to 11th placed Malaga being 17 points behind us in the Primera). Perhaps our famous cantera is finally getting back to form in terms of on-the-field performances rather than simply supplying us, Barnum and Bailey style, with the greatest show on earth.*

Here’s my question, though: Where is Gai Assulin? Is he still too young at 17 to bring up to the first team? He played 2 weeks ago against Alzira on November 30 (though I don’t know if he played against Ontinyent on Saturday). Perhaps Guardiola, who coached him last year, doesn’t have the confidence in him that so many others do, or perhaps he doesn’t feel the need to rush the kid into the fray simply for the sake of doing so. We do have Bojan, Pedro, Henry, and Víctor Vázquez all up front, though why not rest Henry and put in Gai as a late sub? I don’t know about that, but I know I trust in Guardiola. It’s merely some food for thought.

So we’ll have a young team out there for a meaningless game. The older guys who get stuck on the field with them might not really bother to show up, but that’s bad form. The “kids” should be out to prove themselves and get some serious match time, so hopefully we’ll see some serious talent on display. Bojan specifically needs to use the last game as a springboard to propel him into the lofty heights of awesomedom where we know he can happily reside. He needs to work hard and make his chances count rather than ineffectively balloon the ball over the bar for the hundredth time.

Who will start? I don’t know. What will happen? I don’t know. So, what use am I? Well, I’m here to tell you the official predictions.

Starting lineup: Pinto, Victor Sanchez, Pique, Caceres, Abidal, Busquets, Keita, Hleb, Bojan, Pedro, Henry.

Official score prediction: 1-1. Sorry, Kevin, your 2nd time in the Camp Nou won’t be as cool.

And just in case you were wondering, yes, tis the season to get your Barack Obama caganer. What’s a caganer? Look no farther.

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*For those of you who don’t know or with short memories, our cantera has brought us: Valdes, Puyol, Pique, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Bojan, Pedro, and Busquets as well as Jorquera, Víctor Sánchez, Víctor Vázquez, Botía, Abraham, and Xavi Torres. Whether or not some of those last ones are worth mentioning is up to others who have seen them play, but they’re definitely not contributors at this point (only Víctor Sánchez has played a game for the first team this season and Jorquera is the only one with any other first team experience). We also produced Cesc Fabregas and like a billion other awesome players. I’m going to take credit for LeBron James, for one. And Wayne Gretzky. We’re so cool.