This one is going to be a good’un, because first we have to establish parameters, and lord knows how you do that. Should they have been with the side last season, so that we have something to go on? No, because a player can improve withIN a season to become something spectacular.

And how do you really evaluate “most improved,” which is very different from “most valuable.” To me, you have to look at the effect that a player has, simply put, and the changes he has made in his game. For me, and I know that this is going to be contentious, that player is Eric “What? Red?” Abidal.

So. Why Abidal? Because last season, he went from being a player that everybody except me wanted to see on a rail out of town, to a critical part of our back line, as evinced by what happened during his 8-week injury stretch. He wasn’t quite the same when he came back, and got hosed on a couple of unfortunate red cards.

But his sideline-to-sideline range, pace, growing abilities to become part of the attack and freedom that he gives the defense, help make his case. He didn’t quite know what to do or how to do it last season, though he was very solid. Is it Guardiola? Possibly. But you could see the roaming freedom that the likes of Pique, Alves and Marquez had when Abidal was in. He also made The Yaya’s life a lot easier, and was a godsend to Iniesta for that little possession-controlling back pass, that Abidal always made himself available for.

Yes, there were lots of contenders. Pique went from a “Huh? Who? What?” member of the back line, to its best player, making critical save after critical save. Messi added passing to his bag of tricks, but let’s not kid ourselves: He was pretty spectacular already. Iniesta stepped out of the shadows, but he was always a great player. Thierry Henry was a very strong candidate, but really, all he did was become the player that he should have been from the outset of his tenure in the Blaugrana.

Iniesta was my second place, mostly because of the effect we see when he isn’t in the side. Xavi seems a little more unsettled, the midfield doesn’t flow as smoothly and the left side of the attack loses a bit of magic. You could almost declare it a draw, but we don’t do draws in these parts.

So it’s Abidal, for me. And when you all are done calling me a jackass, let’s hear your most improved players.

Ready….GO!

Next up, and the final round of the Season Recap before we start having fun with transfer rumors, will be MVP. I have a surprise for that one, as well. How ’bout that?

There’s not much you can say other than that word. It’s almost unfathomable what occurred. Nine players left and six players arrived (the 7th, Henrique, has yet to arrive, so to speak), the season began in qualifiers, found its first heart attack — an omen of things to come? — moved to defeat in Soria, and then, like some sort of an RPG of godlike beauty, raced upwards to the highest of heights and never really looked like faltering, despite the occasional blip.

Copa, Lliga, i Champions.

Those words haven’t gotten old yet and I don’t think they will. A real treble made of three real competitions that could blood, guts, and plenty of tactical acumen. FC Barcelona is the first team in Spanish history to achieve such a result, even eclipsing the Real Madrid super team of the 1950s, at least in one sense. This is a feeling you don’t often have in sports, winning the treble and doing it in absolute style, so treasure it, remember it, and play Viva La Vida over and over again, just to remind yourself.

Copa, Lliga, i Champions.

Wow.

And so, we move on to the statistics, because there’s no reason not to delay the inevitable. I’m going to discuss them and it might as well be now, rather than later. The final table looks like this:

Barça, Real Madrid, Sevilla, and Atleti all go to the Champions League; Villarreal and Valencia go to the Europa Cup/NIT; and Betis, Numancia, and Recreativo Huelva fall to La Segunda. Everyone else: midtable.

Now, for Pythagorean Expectation, which is (of course) adapted for soccer using points rather than wins:

Thanks to losing the last 3 games of the season, Barça ended up as the most underachievingest side of the year! Sporting Gijon, which didn’t go down and now I owe John a beer, was the most overachievingest, going from what should have (according to goals scored vs allowed) been the lowest earner, pointswise. But that’s not how it went down in Asturias because they don’t give a crap about your goal difference nonsense, anyway. They’re all “feel free to score like 80 goals against in a 3 game span or whatever, we’re going to avoid relegation with a second half comeback on the last day of the season. And you’re going to like it.” And what’s crazy is that I did!

Surprise of the season: besides the treble, I’d say it’s that Atleti made the Champions League. I’m not sure I’ll ever get used to that. After that, maybe that Espanyol were able to dig themselves out of that insane hole they were in back in February. They went 8-1-1 to finish the year, earning 25 points to garner a top half finish from what, really, should have been a relegation year.

Not surprise of the season: Numancia relegated, Valencia struggles when not paying their players. Seriously, if you had known that Valencia was going to go months without paying their players, would you have doubted that they wouldn’t be in the Champions League spots? And Numancia has the smallest budget since, uh, Recre Huelva.

Back to the beautiful boys in blaugrana and their brilliant statistics (if only it were babistics! The alliteration would have been bombastic!):

Goals scored:
Total: 154. Top scorer: Messi, 38
La Liga: 105. Top scorer: Eto’o, 30
Copa: 17. Top scorer: Messi, 6
Champions League: 32. Top scorer: Messi, 9
Minutes played per goal scored: Messi, 107 minutes ~37 seconds

Most appearances overall (Copa, La Liga, CL): Alves, Xavi, 52
Most minutes played overall (Copa, La Liga, CL): Alves, 4767
Most minutes played per appearance (outfield player with more than 5 appearances): Pique, 93.44

Most appearances in La Liga: Eto’o, 36
Most minutes played in La Liga (outfield): Xavi, 3106
Most minutes played per appearance in La Liga: Pique, 92.48

Most appearances in the Copa: Bojan, Busquets, Pinto, 9
Most minutes played in the Copa (outfield): Busquets, 782
Most minutes played per appearance in the Copa (outfield): Keita, 94.0000000

Most appearances in the Champions League: Pique, Xavi, Valdes, Messi, 12
Most minutes played in the Champions League (outfield): Pique 1144
Most minutes played per appearance in the Champions League (outfield): Alves, 95.70

So there you have it, the statistics from 2008/09. Who was our best player? I think that’s impossible to say because in every game there seemed to be someone else willing to step up, to become The Man for the minutes we needed them to do so. Take the second Clasico, where we were down 1-0 fairly early in the first half, even Phil Schoen saying we were down and out. And then Henry steps up. Then Puyol. Then Xavi robs Diarra and slots it to Messi. Then we let in another goal and it’s Henry again. Then Messi again. Then, of all people, El Piquenbauer, putting in the sixth, the hammer to the nail in the coffin of RM’s season, the hand that officially lifted the league trophy for us. Then there’s the Copa del Rey final, with The Yaya stepping through 4,894 defenders in order to fire in a lasercannonblast to win the Copa del Rey. Then there’s Iniesta’s Foot of God smacking the life out of Chelsea. Then there’s Eto’o cutting Vidic. There’s Messi powering the ball beyond Osasuna’s keeper. Then there’s Gudjohnsen scoring and Eto’o pushing Pep. Go back to the Gamper, to Puyol’s goal there, then Eto’o’s winner. Wherever you look: gorgeous play and with gorgeous goals.

This season will live on in superlatives uttered by Ray Hudson and in our memories as snapshots of brilliance and joy. And for that, I am grateful. To the whole team, to every member, even the ones who didn’t perform ‘well enough”. We, as fans, are indebted to them, to what they have given us, to 9 months unadulterated greatness. Statistics don’t come close to describing what was accomplished, what occurred, what every moment of every game was like. Talk of beautiful football and you now must speak of this year’s Barça.

Copa, Lliga, i Champions.

Wow.

Stats breakdown time:
Overrall
13W-2D-1L 41pts (48GF, 10GA)
2.56pts per game, 3GF per game, 0.63GA per game

Home
6W-2D-0L 20pts (28GF, 5GA)
2.50pts per game, 3.50GF per game, 0.63GA per game

Away
7W-0D-1L 21pts (20GF, 5GA)
2.63pts per game, 2.50GF per game, 0.63GA per game

I won’t lie and say those stats aren’t mind-bogglingly wonderful. We’re the best team in Europe, maybe even the universe, unless there some sort of soccer-playing version of the Matt Groening Harlem Globetrotters that I don’t know about.

FCB is 10 points clear of second-place Sevilla, 11 points clear of Atletico Madrid and Valencia, and 12 points clear of Real Madrid and Villarreal, who round out the teams in the European spots. Here are the top 7, in fun Excel table form.

I’ve included Depor because they are only 2 points back of a UEFA spot (Valladolid lies 4 points behind them with 23) and because I think that Depor has quietly gone about being a solid team. They started the year out with a win at home against Real Madrid (2-1) and then a tight 1-0 loss at the Madrigal.

As I write this, Liverpool is top of the EPL with 42pts in 19 games. Chelsea is second with 38pts. Liverpool earned 2.21pts per game to Chelsea’s 2.16. Inter Milan, fresh off their win over Siena, is sitting pretty at the top of Serie A with 41 points from 17 games (2.41pts per game), six points on chasers Jueventus. In Germany, Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich are tied at the top with 35pts from 17 games (2.06pts per game). In France, Lyon has a 3-point margin over second place with 38pts from 19 games (2pts per game).

Extrapolating what has happened so far in the Spanish league to 19 games played, the stats would look approximately like this (with some rounding up and some down):

Barça: 49pts
Sevilla: 37pts
Atleti and Valencia: 36pts
Real Madrid and Villarreal: 34pts
Depor: 32pts

That would put Barça first in a theoretical European-wide table (and don’t tell me that it’s all relative competition because I’m not examining that right now, merely point totals — not only that, but I’m not considering that several of the teams listed above play each other in the coming weeks or would have to play each other and thus would reduce points available). It puts the other Spanish teams roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of upper crust teams (European place teams).

After January 18, when everyone has played everyone else, we’ll know better who is the true “winter champion,” but that title, as always, means absolutely nothing without the remaining 19 games tacked on. Barça are the clear favorites to take the crown, of course, being on pace to get 97 or 98 points (97.375 to be exact — round that either way you’d like), with 114 goals scored and 24 goals allowed. Um. A +90GD? Holy. Shit. Well that’s the pace we’re on, so despite the fact that that’s not going to happen (it’s not; don’t fool yourself into thinking it will — for one there are trips to Valencia, Real Madrid, and Atletico ahead), let’s assume the top 6 are in the Europe to stay (Depor is a pretender, I think, based on their goals scored and goals allowed numbers, but they are right there, so you never know).

The middle of the pack, now, is interesting because, in a sense, it’s not the least bit interesting. It’s what it usually is by this time: teams good enough not to go down, but not good enough to make it to the European spots. Starting with Valladolid, spots 8 through 14 are probably all in that category, though Racing Santander may be pushing their luck by the end of the season. Real Betis, sitting in 13th, also may not be faring so well by the end, but I think they’ll be a bit higher up based on what I’ve seen of them.

Valladolid was on a tear before losing in a ridiculous comeback from Numancia that suggest some sort of absurd weakness on Valladolid’s part…except that Numancia are the only team to have beaten Barcelona and they did it in Los Pajaritos, which is where they did it to Valladolid. Since losing to Barcelona 6-0 at the Camp Nou, Valladolid has beaten Real Madrid (1-0), Villarreal (0-3), and Depor (3-0), moving them from a “meh” team to a “hmm” team that has finally broken into the positive goal difference bracket, in which only 7 other teams currently reside.

Málaga sits in that position of obscurity in my mind, despite having beaten Sevilla in the Sanchez Pizjuan (0-1), nearly taken Madrid in the Bernabeu (4-3), and drawn with Villarreal (2-2). In there somewhere was a rain-soaked 1-4 loss to Barça. I know I watched them and I know I remember thinking they weren’t that good at all, but then again they beat Sevilla and drew with Villarreal so they must have something going for them…I think. I need to watch them more often, apparently. Anyway, they’ll survive easily enough, if not spectacularly.

Getafe, despite losing 5-2 to last placed Osasuna (what? seriously? 5-2? To Osasuna?), are a solid side that drew with Barça (1-1), beat RM (3-1), and then drew with Villarreal (3-3; though they were up 0-3 in what quickly turned into an insane game). That, to me at least, suggests they’re going to stay up, but that loss to Osasuna (and others like them) will keep them squarely out of Europe.

While I hate to admit it, I think that I’m going to owe John a beer on our bet concerning Sporting Gijon’s status in the top flight. They’re a plucky bunch and despite having their proverbial rumps handed to them by both Barça and RM (1-6, 7-1 respectively), they tend to pick up points against mid-table and relegation zone teams — and beat Deport 0-3 and Valencia 2-3 to boot. They’re not offensively fantastic (24GF), but they do enough to make up for their “bad” defense (35GA, worst in the league). That 35GF stat includes the 13 goals put in during that bad two game stretch, of course — as it should, since no one can take a game off and expect to earn points — so 22 goals in 14 games (1.57GA per game) is very middle-of-the-pack. With the 13 goals added back in, their only competition for worst defense in the league is little Numancia, who just happened to be the only team to beat Barça and were nearly the first team to shock RM in the Bernabeu (4-3 loss). Sporting Gijon are, by the way, the only team yet to draw a match. Seven wins and nine losses, eh? You could be playoff bound in the AFC West…

Last year’s “Oh crap I just survived, but I soiled myself in the process” team, Athletic Bilbao, is currently residing all the way up in 12th, which is somewhat shocking, in a way. They’re on 19 points, thanks to a timely victory over Real Betis to earn their first 3 points away from home and are looking a lock for their 10 millionth consecutive year in the top flight. What was a dismal campaign at first has seen 10 points earned out of the last 12 possible thanks to victories over Numancia, Gijon, and Real Betis. Scrappy against Barça and RM, they definitely could give several teams a run for their money in the second half.

Real Betis and Racing Santander round out the group that I think are safe, more because of the eyebrows I’ve raised at their play during various matches than because of any statistical markers. They’re both middle of the road both offensively (21 and 18GF, respectively) and defensively (22GA each). Betis displayed pluck and some amount of skill in their game against Barça (3-2 loss at the Camp Nou), won a string of games in November to shoot clear of relegation, and then have stuttered back downwards of late, having gotten only 1 point from their last 4 matches and that one was at home against relegation Espanyol.

Racing, while tied on points with Betis, do not give me quite the confidence in their survival. They will survive, I’m sure, but I don’t see them as anything other than lower-to-mid-table team. Yes, they drew with both Sevilla and Barça to start the year (both 1-1) and weren’t blown out by either RM or Villarreal (0-2 and 2-0, respectively), but they’ve drawn 1-1 three straight matches against underwhelming competition (Athletic Bilbao, Almeria, and Málaga, only one of which has been mentioned so far). They’re my “could fall” team right now, though that’s probably cherry-picking to some degree. Anyone think they’ll go up in the table over the second half?

When we first checked in this year on the league as a whole, Betis and Gijon were anchoring the bottom of the table, so they’ve certainly come a long ways. I said Betis would survive, but that Gijon would go down. Hopefully I’m wrong on the Gijon part because I’d love to see them stay up for at least another year. [And by the way, look at Barcelona's stats from that previous league review: 6 games in and 7 goals allowed. Now, 10 games later, just 10 goals allowed. 3 goals in 10 games? Holy mackerel.]

The bottom now has a totally different look to it and one that is, to me, quite surprising. Numancia is probably safe only because everyone below them is even worse, but they won’t get points from Barça in the Camp Nou, so they’ll have to hold their own at home some more (where they’re 4-2-2). If they get 36pts (they have 17 through 16 games, so 34 would be through 32 games and then 2 more for the final 4 games) they’ll be safe, I’m sure, though Zaragoza went down last year with 42 (10 wins and still out — yowch!).

I’ll take a moment here to delve into some statistics that might or might not be useful. Last year, 1053 points of a possible 1140 were earned (meaning there were 87 draws, which results in a net loss of 87 points because each team earns 1 point, or a total of 2 points is awarded evenly to both teams). To put it a different way, 92.37% of all available points were earned in 2007/08. This year so far, 444 points have been earned, or 92.5% of all available points (480 — 160 games have been played). Of those 480 points, the top 6 have earned 40.2% (193pts) of all the possible points, compared to last year’s 36.6% (417 out of 1140). That suggests, to me, that in order to survive, one will have to earn slightly fewer points than in the 07/08 season because the bottom 14 teams are earning, in total, fewer points.

The bottom 3 have earned just 8% of the points this year, while last year they earned a collective 8.5%. Take into consideration that Murcia and Levante were holding down the fort on the bottom by a wide margin (12 points in the end) and you have the signs that someone, somewhere, with an above average point total will descend: Zaragoza was that unlucky devil. Yes, Osasuna has earned only 12 points out of their possible 48, but that’s 25% of their total possible compared to Levante’s dreadful 22.8%. As long as Levante can keep from losing points to the relegation zone teams, they should be fine, even if they don’t dramatically improve their performances against higher table teams. [Just for full disclosure, Osasuna is currently on pace to earn 28.5 points -- that half a point could break either way -- so they're going to either be Levante pt. 2 or they're going to step up and finally do something with their season, even if they ultimately go down in a blaze of mediocrity]

I know I skipped Almeria last time, but I’m here to discuss them this time. Negredo is still scoring goals (8 in 15 matches), but it’s not really doing his squad any good since no one else seems to be doing diddly doo doo (he’s scored exactly half of their 16 total goals). They haven’t allowed that many goals (24), especially if their 5-0 thrubbing by Barça is taken out of the picture, they just can’t seem to score. They drew with RM, and lost by 1 to both Sevilla (0-1) and Villarreal (2-1). But they’re the second victim of Osasuna, having succumbed to the same crazy “sure, feel free to score” malady that Getafe did later. 3-1, Osasuna? You are going down. That’s my final word on them.

The pretty island paradise of Mallorca — or so say all those ads all over Spain — apparently also has a soccer team. I just don’t know what’s become of it. Once the land of Samuel Eto’o, then that of Dani Guiza, RCD Mallorca finds itself in a bit of a pickle. The team blows — 1 point above relegation with the 3rd worst GD in the league at -12 — and they have yet to play the three big boys (Barça, RM, and Villarreal), who they will play in quick succession to start 2009 and end their first half of the season. Despite earning a point against Sevilla, they’re not going to earn any against those three, meaning they’ll be in the relegation zone by the end of January. And I kind of think that’s where they’ll stay, but Almeria is going to beat them to the bottom in the end. They’ll probably survive, but if it comes down to the last 3 weeks for them, they’re done, even if they host 2 of the final 3 (Barça, @RM, Villarreal).

Then there’s the real relegation zone and the real relegation zone surprise, at least for me. Espanyol sits tied with Recreativo Huelva for 18th/19th place with 13 points. Only GD (-11 as opposed to Recre’s league-worst -15) keeps them one place away from safety. Espanyol in the relegation zone? Seriously? I mean, it kind of makes me happy in some sort of twisted ass sadistic way, but it’s still surprising. Perhaps we should have seen it coming, but it still feels just like the Valencia tankjob from last year, but with fewer talented players. Whatever the reasons — horrible offense (14GF) and anemic defense (25GA); they’re actually worse than Osasuna in both categories — they are in the relegation zone. I don’t see it continuing, based simply on the fact that they’ve got more talent than the other 4 teams around them combined (or so my Barcelona-centric mind says). They’ll figure it out for a few weeks and drag themselves to safety, if not by a comfortable margin — sort of like in 05/06, I guess.

Recre is, of course, floundering. They’re the oldest club in Spain, they’ve spent the last 2 years in the top flight (this is their third), and they finally seem to be sinking back into the mediocrity from whence they came. What I mean is, we’re talking about Espanyol without the talent to haul themselves back up. They have the fewest goals scored (11) and are tied third worst in goals allowed (26) in the whole league, which doesn’t bode well for the coming 22 games. They can end this half on a good note by beating Numanica, Racing, and Gijon, which could change my projection, but I think I’m going to bet on them going down.

And finally there was Osasuna. Despite only 2 wins in 16 matches (with 6 draws), they managed to stick around with everyone else, never losing touch. They’re only down 1 point to both Recre and Espanyol, but they do have Sevilla, Barça, and RM coming up before the halfway point. That’s no easy schedule and we’ll have a better idea of how bad they are come the middle of January. I don’t see them staying up, really, but what if that 5-2 win over Getafe was some sort of turnaround signal? After a 1-0 loss at Recre? Nah. They’re going down.

Official Winter Predictions:
League Champ: Barça
2, 3, 4: Villarreal, Real Madrid, Sevilla
5, 6: Valencia, Atleti
18, 19, 20: Almeria, Recre, Osasuna

I’m easing my way back into the day-in day-out blogging grind by way of another in my fabled series, State of the League. Some of you might point out that “fabled” is perhaps a bit of an overstatement, but I’m looking at it from a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way. Cause, you know, Kevin has been really laying it on the last couple of weeks and getting all the plaudits for, um, his hard work. And that just seems monstrously unfair to me, someone who hasn’t bothered to do anything during that time.

As usual, I’m going to keep all the latest rumors out of this post. With, ahem, the exception of that last self-link. The point of these posts is to discuss the league from a perspective that might not be generally done by most posters and not concentrate too much on Barcelona’s current state of affairs. That is to say, I won’t be looking much up on Barceloogle.

So far, the league has disputed 18 of the total 114 possible points, meaning we’re 15% of the way through the league (2/19ths) and not particularly close to crowning a champion. Nor should we assume that the basement dwellers are necessarily headed down.

Let’s start with those subterranean clubs, though, where things have been going pretty much according to plan:

20. Real Betis 2pts (0W-2D-4L, 4GF 8GA, -4GD)
19. Sporting Gijon 3pts (1W-0D-5L, 8GF 20GA, -12GD)
18. Recreativo Huelva 4pts (1W-1D-4L, 2GF 10GA, -8GD)
17. Numancia 4pts (1W-1D-4L, 5GF 9GA, -4GD)
16. Osasuna 4pts (0W-4D-2L, 2GF 4GA, -2GD)

Of these teams, two (Sporting Gijon and Numancia) are new to this year’s edition of the league so it’s not particularly surprising to seem them so far down the table. The other Segunda call-up, Malaga, is in 12th with 7 points. I can’t say I saw the Real Betis tank job coming this early in the season, but their dismal performance point-wise isn’t actually all that bad statistically. Tim Stannard pointed to this in a previous column, but it bears a little bit of repetition.

Real Betis have now played 6 games (just like everyone else); their first two opponents were Recreativo Huelva and Getafe and they managed an 0-1 loss and a 0-0 draw. Then came the hellish 4 weeks that absolutely everyone must endure twice during the season: Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Villarreal. If you’re at home to one, the next week you’re away to the other and vice-versa. Betis drew with intercity rival Sevilla 0-0, lost to Barcelona 3-2 at the Camp Nou through a late Gudjohnsen goal, were barely edged out by Real Madrid on a 90th minute Ruud goal, and lost to Villarreal at El Madrigal 2-1 thanks to a come-from-behind victory. They outshot both Sevilla and Villarreal and were only one shot behind Real Madrid. This does not a disaster make, says the statistician in me. If you can compete at that level against 4 of the top 5 sides in the league (we’ll get to Valencia in a minute), I’m going to put my money on you staying up by beating the pants off several weaker sides.

Sporting Gijon’s route to survival is, well, exactly the same as Betis’, only it takes place a week earlier. Their only win (in fact, their only points) come from a win at Mallorca after having been soundly beaten 1-2 by Getafe, 4-3 by Sevilla, 1-6 by Barcelona, and 7-1 by Real Madrid. They’ll probably scrape a few points together against weaker opponents, but I still don’t seem them ever really recovering from those twin ass-kickings metted out by the big boys. That they did, in fact, compete at Sevilla is a testament to their testicular fortitude. Take out Barcelona and Madrid from their schedules and their stats are 6GF and 7GA. That’s not half bad, really. Does anyone blame them for losing at home 0-1 to Villarreal? Only those two major losses suggest deeper issues of quality and, um, depth. We’ll see starting next week when they host fellow strugglers Osasuna if their win at Mallorca was a fluke or the real deal. My guess, to be honest, is fluke — perhaps only because I’m hedging my bets, though.

If there’s a team that’s showing its true colors already, it’s probably Recreativo Huelva, a team that has played only one team in the European spots (a 1-0 loss at Almeria) yet has collected only 4 points out of a possible 18. On the surface this would seem to be better than what Gijon and Betis have done, but take a look at Recre’s opponents: @Betis, Espanyol, @Atleti, Athletic, @Almeria, Malaga. They won the game at Betis and drew against Athletic, but were summarily stomped by Atleti and Malaga 4-0. Thus they’ve shipped 11 goals while only scoring 2. Because Athletic and Betis are in the bottom quarter of the table, success against them can only be viewed through that lens, not as serious success. Based mainly on their inability to score (ranked last) rather than their poor defense (2nd to last), I predict a bottom 3 finish for them. After all, who do they have that they can rely on? One of their keepers is named Riesgo!

Those who are out of the relegation zone aren’t necessarily that much better off. Numancia sits on 4pts, just like Recre, but their overall record and who they have played is much more likely to keep them from going down than Recre’s abysmal start. Los Rojillos will long remember their opening to this campaign, a 1-0 home win against Barcelona and no doubt their goalscorer, Mario, a local boy, is free of bar tabs for at least the rest of the season. Unlike their newbie brethern from Gijon, Numancia have really showed up for the matches against the big boys. They took all 3 points off of Barcelona and managed a 4-3 loss at the Bernabeu and a 1-2 loss at home to Villarreal. This is, of course, where the question of whether or not teams wear each other out fighting against the big guns and thus leave themselves open to getting beaten by worse opponents afterwards by dint of being fatigued. Since playing Villarreal, Numancia has earned only 1 point out of a possible 9, but they have never been blown out. They play Valencia in the Mestalla next, so don’t expect them to move up in the immediate future, just in the resulting few weeks. They may yet slide down, but they have the best shot of the bottom 5 to stay up.

Then there’s the case of Osasuna. They barely survived last year’s relegation battle, ending up 17th by 1 solitary point. Having faced Villarreal to start the year, they got a solid result (1-1 at home), but still have not managed a win. They’ve got 4 points from 4 draws (Villarreal, @Mallorca, Depor, @Numancia), but have also lost twice (@Valencia and vs Racing). No one has yet to score more than 1 goal against Osasuna, who are tied with Valencia and Sevilla for the second-best defensive record in the league: 4 goals allowed). They are, however, tied with Recre for the lowest goals scored (2). That doesn’t bode well if they start leak a few goals here and there, but I have a strange feeling that they’ll put together a nice little bit of magic in front of net at some point during the season and will stay up by those frazzled hairs on their chinny-chin-chins.

There are, of course, 15 other teams to cover, but I’m going to skip upwards, to the top 5, not just to make this a shorter post, but because the middle of the pack is as muddled as always and going through each individual team statistically would be bothersome for you, the readers, as well as for me. 4 points separate the 15th placed team (Racing Santander) and the 8th ranked team (Atleti), meaning there’s very little statistical difference between them. We’ll discuss those teams as they either lunge upwards or slide downward. And I’m also skipping Almeria for the time being because, um, I like things to be symmetrical. And I don’t want to write about Almeria (as exciting as Alvaro Negredo’s output has been).

The top of the table:

5. Real Madrid 13pts (4W-1D-1L, 18GF 9GA, +9GD)
4. Barcelona 13pts (4W-1D-1L, 18GF 7GA, +11GD)
3. Sevilla 14pts (4W-2D-0L, 12GF 4GA, +8GD)
2. Villarreal 16pts (5W-1D-0L, 9GF 3GA, +6GD)
1. Valencia 16pts (5W-1D-0L, 13GF 4GA, +8GD)

If you’re going to pick the La Liga winner and runner up before the season starts, you’re most likely going to put your money on either Real Madrid or Barcelona, no matter who you actually support. The top 5 is really only interesting enough to talk about because those two teams aren’t the top 2, but instead sit at the bottom of the CL spots (for all intents and purposes, Madrid is a CL team because of how close they are to being so and because of how much time is left in the season).

But what of Schuster’s men? Real Madrid is coming off another championship and were looking like finally keeping some semblance of order in their ranks until Cronaldo didn’t make the move and Robinho jumped ship. They’re certainly not floundering, but they haven’t shown themselves to be true world beaters either, at least not in the league. They may not be as flawed as their opening-day loss to Depor suggested, but they’re not necessarily that much better than the sugestion either. Numancia scored 3 times on them in the Bernabeu. Their goals against record is fairly abysmal for a team in the top 5 (9GA, tying them for 4th worst with Numancia), but they’re dealing with a sort of hodgepodge backline and I expect their goal differential to rapidly improve over the next few weeks as people settle in a bit. And they do score boatloads of goals (tied for first with 18). They recently drew with Espanyol in the Bernabeu, which suggests continued struggles, but I don’t forsee that in their future, as players return from injury and find their forms. They have a well-balanced attack that isn’t reliant on any one player, so cutting out their scoring is never going to be easy. They’ll definitely be a CL team next year, if not the champions; a 3-peat is just so damned hard to pull off, after all.

Next, my own beloved Barcelona. I won’t dwell on them too much, since this site is dedicated to the team and has a review of every game they’ve played. Much like their rivals in the capital, the blaugrana suffered a defeat in their opening game, but followed that one up with a draw. Since then it’s been maximum points (12), with the occasional heart-stopper, just in case you weren’t paying enough attention. Though they’ve managed 18 goals in their 6 games (12 of which came in 2 games), they’ve yet to record a clean sheet; still, they’re tied (with 4 other teams) for 7th best defensive record with 7 goals allowed. They are also tied for first in goals scored (18). Of those 18 goals, 10 of them are shared by 2 players (Eto’o and Messi with 5 each). This lack of attacking versatility is not necessarily a hindrance to a championship run as long as the odd man continues to put in goals (5 other players have notched at least one goal). A definite CL finish for this team, but in today’s Liga, nothing is certain.

Then there’s the case of Sevilla. For the past few years, Sevilla has appeared to be one of the powerhouses of La Liga, at least for the first few months, if not for the entire campaign. Still, they are a force to be reckoned with when they’re on form. At home they’ve only allowed 3 goals, all 3 of which were scored by Sporting Gijon of all teams. While they haven’t faced the toughest of opponents (who has, though?), they’ve put up good numbers against most opponents. They have yet to lose, have drawn only twice (opening day @Racing and @Betis), and in their 3 wins not against Sporting Gijon have outscored opponents 7-0. Naturally it’s Freddy Kanoute who is atop their scoring chart with 3, though he is tied with the ever-resurgent Javier Chevanton (at what point does one stop being resurgent and get regarded as just plain good?). Despite their next game being against Almeria, who sit in 6th, Sevilla has a fairly easy road for the next few jornadas. November 23 starts their run when they face Valencia, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Villarreal in 4 consecutive matches. That’ll be fun. By then, though, they should be fairly well positioned to withstand any loss of points that may (and probably will) occur, though the only away game of those 4 is at the Bernabeu. Not bad. Expect to see them in Europe this year, though the CL could be so hotly contested that even a team as good as Sevilla gets the shaft and falls to the NIT UEFA Cup.*

Onward and ever upward, we next encounter Villarreal, the Yellow Submarine whose place in the hearts and minds of all underdog-lovers was so very nearly cemented forever, but was summarily blown by, of all people, Juan Roman Riquelme in the CL semis against Arsenal. Anyway, JRR is gone, and has been replaced by Marcos Senna, who, instead of missing that PK, would have kicked Jens Lehmann in half. Until they at least get close to overcoming that defeat, Villarreal seems destined to be that other team from Spain; they’re not flashy, they don’t sell players for a gazillion dollars to other teams, nor do they buy them for much. But they are solid and their current record speaks volumes to their ability to find talent where others haven’t (Santi Cazorla, Joseba Llorente). They lead the league in goals allowed (3) and have yet to allow more than one in a game (meaning they have 3 clean sheets). They’re also tied for 6th (with Almeria) in the league in goals scored (9). Their schedule for the next few weeks isn’t particularly easy (@Espanyol, Atleti, @Athletic, Almeria), but they should get maximum points from 3 of those games, keeping them at least tied for 1st going into their easiest stretch of this half of the season, before heading over to visit Sevilla. They’ll be back in the CL next year.

And then there was one: Valencia. Where did Los Che come from? They’ve always had the talent to compete, but last year they were such a disaster I thought for sure they’d be a midtable club throughout the season. Apparently I was wrong, at the very least about the beginning of the season. They started the season with a 3-0 home win and then drew away to Almeria; since, they’ve outscored their 4 opponents 8-2. They are 3rd in the league in goals scored (13) and tied for 2nd in goals allowed (4)**. Valencia beat Depor La Coruña 4-2 (granted, at the Mestalla) and plays Numancia next. In about 4 weeks we’ll be able to compare what Valencia has done to what FCB and RM have done, but for now they’re leading based on merit, rather than on anything else. Their leading scorer, David Villa, has nearly half their goals (6) and is the current Pichichi; they’ll have to diversify their scoring a bit if they want to maintain their pace, though 5 others have scored at least once, so that’s not bad (Mata has 3, everyone else has 1).

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*If you’re unfamiliar with the NIT, visit the Wikipedia page to see why I roll my eyes whenever anyone mentions it or the UEFA Cup.

**I’ll point out here (not for the first time) that Barcelona and Real Madrid are tied for first with 18 goals scored. This is actually a HUGE statistical difference, except that 6 of Barcelona’s goals and 7 of Real Madrid’s came against Sporting Gijon, a team Valencia has yet to play.

[Note: If anyone has any statistical category they'd like to help me track, I'm all for it. Currently I track win/loss/draw percentages as overall/home/away as well as using those three categories for GF/GA/GD. I'd like to be able to keep track of shots on goal, corners, fouls/cards, as well as passing percentages, but I know of no resources that provide that sort of information. If anyone knows, please send me an email at barcelona[at]theoffside[dot]com or post a comment below. I think that these State of the League posts would be much more useful if there was a much stronger statistical backbone (complete with charts, of course, which I’m going to design for the next post). Thanks, Isaiah]

Man, has this been a fun week or so. See what happens when it’s international time? Idle minds become the devil’s workshop and suddenly there are all kinds of press reports that might or might not be true. We’re going to present some of them, just because we’re all clamoring for something to do, right? Like the newsboy in this picture, your mind’s eye can have me shouting “Extree, extree, read all about it!”

–This is my favorite. Dani Alves is getting guff from the Brazilian media for having some six tubs of moisturizing cream in his luggage, while returning from international duty. It’s a safe bet that you have never before, and will never again see the term “metrosexual” used at tribalfootball.com. But there it is. Our own Mr. Alves, a.k.a. “The world’s most expensive right back” is also said to be speaking Spanish with a Portugese accent. Whatever, dude.

Now in Brazil, land of the travestis, where Ronaldo is alleged to have had a right ol’ frolic with some of the “damsels,” anybody slagging Alves for wanting to keep his skin moist is like pot to kettle. Harsh tackles call for soft hands, I say.

–Speaking of Brazil, we and the Evil Empire are making goo-goo eyes at Corinthians striker Dentinho (my all-time favorite Brazilian footy name to date) and the very familiar to all of us Hernanes, who might be back in the frame. Put that one in the “wait and see” category, as well. Dentinho is also supposed to be in luuuuv with Arsenal, by the by.

–Are more cantera lads in the offing? Buzz is that Victor Vasquez and Victor Sanchez are next in line for promotion, in light of the excellence that has come from Sergi Busquets. Recall that Vasquez was going to be promoted to permanent first team along with Pedro, but it didn’t come to pass. Given the immense number of games that could be in the offing this season, we will need talent for the early-round Copa matches, and the Champions League matches that will be meaningless once we put the boot in another side in our group. So why not?

–In the “bollocks for him” category Carlos Busquets, a.k.a. Sergi Senior, had the pustulent audacity to claim that his young’un would play for the Evil Empire, if the circumstances were right.

“He is culé through and through and since he was small it was his dream to play for Barcelona,” nattered Pere Sergi, who clearly needs to get a hobby, or something. “However, if Real Madrid were an option it would never be said that that water I will not drink.”

Quick. Call the Whipass Wagon. We have a house call to make. Does this mean “Sign my boy, and do it fast,” or is daddy just crazy, like daddies can be sometimes, when bursting with pride. Jeeez….

–Yaya is still quiet. The latest “quote” attributed to our own man-crush object is that he will know what his future is in Barcelona in a month, month and a half. Duh! The silence is still disturbing. There is an analysis over at Goal.com which, in addition to using the phrase “to beg the question” incorrectly, goes on to say (adding insult to injury) that it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for us if Yaya went to Juventus. They already have two DMs, but neither one is adequate.

Henry and Yaya have been similarly rotated, yet you don’t hear our much-maligned but still effective Frenchman saying “Jouez-moi ou commercez-moi, salope!” (Play me or trade me, ho!)

Yaya is due back from internationals, to the warm, loving arms of the Spanish press. More to come. Don’t think the Yaya Stare will get him out of this one.

–In a sad, non-Barca-related note, it looks like the U.S. is officially a soccer nation. The Houston Dynamo keeper Louis Crayton (formerly of Basel), was told by a “fan” at a Dynamo (the city’s MLS franchise) “Hey, you’re a monkey, go back to the jungle.” The Liberian keeper responded “You can’t say that to me. I’m a human being, just like you.”

The “fan” was nabbed, and has been banned from attending Dynamo games indefinitely. In a statement, the League has said:

“The league is reviewing the details of the incident. Major League Soccer and the Houston Dynamo have absolutely no tolerance for the kind of despicable and offensive language reported and will ban for life from all MLS games any person found using such language in an MLS stadium.”

In the solid Goal.com report, Rio Ferdinand is mightily vexed at the rough treatment meted out to striker Emile Heskey at the hands of Croatian fans, and England coach Fabio Capello either did or didn’t (dependent upon who you ask) say “No way! Think of the brothas,” when asked about playing an England/Spain friendly at the Bernabeu.

I can only shake my head. I know this post was supposed to stay all light and funny and stuff, but that kind of stuff just bites the big one.

And that’s what I know for now. Or I should say that’s what I know that people are “reporting.”

Let’s go ahead and start off at the top, where Barcelona currently lies. It’s not exactly a dogfight for first, but someone’s going to have to take it and currently Real Madrid are in the top spot, 9 points up on Barcelona and 10 points up on Villarreal. The fourth Champions League spot is currently held by Atlético Madrid, 5 points behind Villarreal and only 1 point ahead of Racing Santander and 3 points ahead of Sevilla. That rounds out the UEFA Cup spots, after which there is a 6 point drop to Almeria in 7th. We can really discount them from European competition, I think, as you’ll see from the calculations/random guesses below.

First, the Championship: Real Madrid is obviously in a strong position with 6 games left, but one of those is against Barcelona. If RM wins that match, the season is over; if they lose, however, the league could be blown wide open. Here is a comparison of the upcoming games (current table positions in parentheses) for the top 3:

Real Madrid: @Racing Santander(5), Athletic Bilbao(10), @Osasuna(14), Barcelona(2), @Real Zaragoza(18), Levante(20)
Barcelona: Espanyol(8), @Depor(9), Valencia(16), @Real Madrid(1), Mallorca(11), @Murcia(19)
Villarreal: Valladolid(15), @Real Betis(13), Getafe(12), @Recre Huelva(17), Espanyol(8), @Depor(9)

These are pretty comparable season-ending schedules and I think it would be a mistake to attempt to assign a particular team as having either an easier or harder schedule from here on out. Doing so would open many doors that I think need opening at this point. The games that are left are the games that are left and you have to win them in order to get the title. What Real gains in visiting Zaragoza and then hosting Levante to end the season it loses in visiting Racing this weekend; Barcelona has a pretty solid run of mid-table games and then @Murcia, so it’s all the same, really. If anything, Villarreal’s schedule is harder simply because the worst team they play is Recre, who just drew with Barcelona.*

This weekend will, I believe, define the title race as either open or over. If Barcelona can get 3 points from free-falling Espanyol and Racing can turn in a performance worthy of a 5th placed team hosting a 1st placed team, I think we’ll be at 6 points come Monday. If what Kevin says in his previous post is anywhere near true, we’ll show up like lions rather than the kittens we’ve been recently. Despite Espanyol’s recent form, they’re no rollovers in a derby — regular old league form has nothing to do with derby form, after all — so it’ll have to be guns blazing for 90 minutes to get those 3 points.

So the math up at the very top is pretty simple, really, but once you start to go down in the standings just a little bit, you find yourself in the murky world of point counting. Starting with Atletico and ending with Sevilla, we have 3 teams with everything to gain and everything to lose, which in a sense means nothing to lose. Wait, how does that work…logicmeter just blew up…

Atleti at 54 points, Racing at 53 points, Sevilla at 51, in case you lost track since the second paragraph. Or hadn’t do the math required of you in said paragraph.

Atleti: Real Betis(13), @Getafe(12), Recre Huelva(17), @Espanyol(8), Depor(9), @Valencia(16)
Racing: Real Madrid(1), @Mallorca(11), Murcia(19), Sevilla(6), @Athletic(10), Osasuna(14)
Sevilla: Almeria(7), @Murcia(19), Valladolid(15), @Racing(5), @Real Betis(13), Athletic(10)

Based on this** it would seem that Atleti would make the CL while Racing would drop to 6th. However, one must consider in the Atleti-choke factor, which is absurdly high at all times on the backstretch. But will this be the year that Atleti retain their composure and end up with a CL berth? Despite Kun Aguero’s obvious talents (and really the obvious talents of the rest of the squad), I think that the @Getafe match will be their undoing. The winner of the Sevilla@Racing goes on to play in the CL. Playing teams flirting with relegation at this time of the year is not necessarily the best for a midtable club — after all, if you are to pit Valencia needing a win to stay up against an Atleti team needing a draw or better get into the CL or merely the UEFA Cup, you know that Valencia is going to win. History and David Villa are on the side of the Orangemen. At least so says I. Because I think Sevilla is a better team than Racing, I’m going to say that Sevilla comes out on top of all this and eeks back into the CL by 1 point. That’s an official predicition. If I win, I get a free backrub from the more attractive members of our posting crew. If I’m wrong, I swear I’ll drink a beer for every point I’m wrong by. By which I’m wrong. Dammit I hate English.

I’m going to skip down to Osasuna in 14th now, just because I think all the other clubs are safe, even Real Betis, who have a pretty hardass schedule to close things out.*** So I guess I just skipped down to them, didn’t I? Whatever.

The bottom of the barrel looks like this:

14. Osasuna 40pts
15. Valladolid 39pts
16. Valencia 39pts
17. Recre Huelva 37pts
18. Real Zaragoza 34pts
19. Murcia 29pts
20. Levante 22pts

So Levante is out barring an absolutely stunning miracle in which they go 6-0-0 over the last month and half, garnering all 18 possible points, and shooting to 40pts; not only that, though, Murcia, Zaragoza, and Huelva all fail to get more than 2 points in that same time period. And the Levante ship is righted! So…Levante is out.

I’m also going to say that Murcia is gone because they’ll get close to holding up their end of the bargain in the Levante Miracle Scenario (LMS). They’ll lose at home to Mallora and Sevilla, then go on the road to lose to Racing Santander, eek out a draw or maybe even a win while hosting Athletic and then the same in visiting Osasuna, but as their finale, they’re going down against Barcelona (who will win the title!). So much for the LMS…

That leaves but one relegation spot open. Some of Los Che must be getting a bit frantic right now, considering their current league form (though right now they’re probably freaking a bit more about the Copa del Rey final tomorrow). Perhaps they have reason to worry, with this ahead of them:

@Athletic(10), Osasuna(14), @Barcelona(2), Real Zaragoza(18), @Levante(20), Atleti(4)

However, I think history is on their side and they’ll get out of it. It doesn’t hurt at all that they’re going to play Levante (3 free points since it’s away from home) and I do think that this Copa game will go in their favor (again not at home), meaning they’ll be able to get some momentum heading back into the league. It’s do or die for them, but for real (rather than for fake?), so I think they’ll respond and win a couple of games here. They’ll probably lose at Camp Nou, but they’ll at least take valuable points from Athletic and Osasuna. Perhaps that’s just me looking at some of their lineup (Silva, Villa, Jaoquin, Vicente, Morientes, Banega) and being unable to come up with reasons why they’re in 16th.

My pick to go down along with Murcia and Levante is…oh man, I just put myself on the spot. I don’t know! It’s so tough. I’m debating between Valladolid and Recre Huelva, but…but…but they play each other on the last day of the season! Oh man, what drama! I do think that those are the weakest of the teams not currently in the relegation zone and are actually weaker, in my opinion, than stuttering Zaragoza. Obviously this isn’t the time of the year to have engine trouble, but with Zaragoza hosting Huelva this Saturday, we should see some serious fireworks and a Zaragoza win, vaulting them even with Huelva on points. Then they’ll collect a few points from their remaining opponents and will stay up by a point or two. Phew if you’re a Zaragoza fan and Dog Spammit if you’re Huelva fan.

Off to the pichichi now:

1. Luis Fabiano (Sevilla) 23goals
2. Dani Guiza (Mallorca) 18goals
3. Raul (Real Madrid) 16goals.

And so it’ll be Luis Fabiano, methinks. Guess who is tied for 5th, though? That’s right, Samuuu with 14 in 14 games. How about that for stats? Of course, Luis Fabiano has made 25 appearances, so he’s right on track with that…And by the way, Guiza hasn’t scored a single one of his goals from the spot, which is rather impressive. Of course, neither has Eto’o and Fabiano has only scored 2 from there, but whatever, it’s still impressive.

The Zamora trophy:

1. Casillas (Real Madrid): 0.94goals/game (30goals/32games)
2. Valdes (Barcelona): 0.97g/g (31g/32g)
3. Ricardo (Osasuna): 1.03g/g (32g/31g)

Until the Recre match, Valdes was on top and hopefully we’ll get that back soon. This makes me think about doing another statistical analysis of the defense…If we’re so glaringly bad, why is our keeper in the thick of things for the Zamora trophy? Is he that good or is the defense better than we all seem to think?

And you know I’ll be reporting on the Segunda the next time we have a break like this. Oh yes you do. Don’t lie to me. I know you know it.

By the way, if you’re wondering what happened to Almeria in all this (since I said I’d get to them), I discounted them because of how well Sevilla will do to end the season, starting off with a victory over Almeria and dooming them to 7th or worse. So there, I covered that, finally.

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*For you stats nerds, the average Real Madrid opponent remaining (including Barcelona) is ranked 11.5th in the table; the average Barcelona opponent remaining (including Real Madrid) is 10.67th in the table; and the average Villarreal opponent remaining is ranked 12.33th. So, statistically, Barcelona has the toughest schedule, but the schedules are so comparable that it’s hardly worth the time I just took to figure out those averages.

**Cause I’m a glutton for punishment, the average rank opponents remaining for the teams:
Atleti: 12.5
Racing: 10.17
Sevilla: 11.5

So Racing has the hardest schedule and Atleti the easiest. I’ll leave you to do that math to see who has the middle one. Any guesses?

***@Atleti(4), Villarreal(3), @Almeria(7), Valladoli(15), Sevilla(6), @Getafe(12)