Atlético de Madrid - Barcelona; Saturday 2pmEST

By: Isaiah | February 29th, 2008

It’s back to La Liga now, with the Copa semis taking a break for a couple of weeks. It’s another trip to the Calderon to face Atletico Madrid, a team sitting in 4th place, 13 points back of Barcelona and 15 points back of big brother Real Madrid, who will be playing Recreativo at the exact same time. GolTV has, thankfully, decided to confuse absolutely everything and just go ahead and show both games at the same time. I’m not sure how that’s going to work, to be honest, but it’ll be annoying, I can tell you that much.

The squad list has been published and it’s a doozy: Valdés, Pinto, Puyol, Thuram, Milito, Zambrotta, Abidal, Sylvinho, Edmilson, Deco, Gudjohnsen, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Henry, Ronaldinho, Eto’o, Giovani.

Note the absence of Yaya Toure, God of the Defensive Midfield as well as Marquez’s absence. That opens the door to several variations on the theme of “Goddammit, I want Toure back.” Regardless of how Rijkaard plays it, Toure will be missed by this fan. Even if the score is 0-6, which, of course could never ever happen, I’ll be lamenting his absence. I don’t know if Rijkaard will opt for starting the mighty mites (Deco, Iniesta, Xavi), but based on current form it seems the more prudent move; however, Rijkaard could opt for Edmilson, Iniesta, and Deco/Xavi depending on what he believes to be the best approach in a vital away match. Does Frankie Boy want to be defensive and let his forward-thinking midfielders do the work or does he want to push push push like most cules want him to do?

The two most likely variations, from what I can tell, are this:

1. Valdes, Zambrotta, Puyol, Milito, Abidal, Xavi, Iniesta, Deco, Ronaldinho, Eto’o, Messi
2. Valdes, Zambrotta, Puyol, Milito, Abidal, Edmilson, Deco, Iniesta, Ronaldinho, Eto’o, Messi

I could be wrong about Eto’o starting, but seeing as he’s had a couple of pretty great games in a row, works better with Messi and Ronaldinho, he’ll probably be in the starting lineup rather than Henry. The only reason that Eto’o would be on the bench is because Rijkaard believes the Champions League match is more important than the league match and he needs to rest Eto’o for that. As almost any conceivable scoreline will go in favor of FCB rather than Celtic, Henry should be saved for that match, rather than the far more important league away match that we’ve got on our hands here.

I am not, by any means, an Henry denier. He’s good. He’s very good. He’s probably some sort of upper-echelon great, but he’s not, I repeat, not better than our Samu. Perhaps over his career he has done more (ask Arsenal fans), but at Barcelona, very few have done more. Comparing goal averages is one way to do that (Samu wins hands down, both lifetime and especially this year); injuries have been Eto’o’s downfall of late, but if he can stay healthy, he’s on pace to achieve absurd numbers. Obviously he will not continue to contribute 1 goal per appearance (I imagine something like 1.2 goals per 90 minutes because he’s made a substitute appearance), but even when you factor in his other appearances (Champions League and Copa del Rey), Samu has 9 goals in 12 appearances (0.75 goals per game). Henry, on the other hand, has fewer league goals in over twice the number of appearances (19 appearances, 7 goals; an average of 0.37 goals per game). He has a very respectable 13 goals in 28 appearances overall, including 3 goals in 5 Champions League games, but that is an overall average of 0.46 goals per game. (For reference, Samu’s lifetime FCB La Liga goals per game average is 0.704; Henry’s lifetime average at Arsenal was 0.685)

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Henry’s output. He’s doing very well for his first year in a new league, on a new team, and in a new culture. However, Samu is just that much better and I’d like to see him on the field. I realize that statistics can lie, especially when you don’t take them all into account (passing percentage, assists, and then the intangibles, of course), but for forwards, the most telling stat is goals. Not shots per goal or even shots on goal, but rather just goals. Pure and simple: score more and you are better. Samu has done that, so he deserves to be the starter.

Beyond that, the idea that Rijkaard will ever start Ronnie, Henry, Eto’o, and Messi together is silly. That just plain won’t happen for several reasons. The most important reason is, I think, defense. If you remove one of the midfielders, you open up a hole that no amount of backtracking by forwards can really cover, especially without Toure there to stymie any center-of-the-field counterattacks. The other reasons deal mostly with the logistics of getting a ball to 4 people who are all calling for it and all pretty much in the same part of the field. Certainly our attacks would be insanely talented, but that wouldn’t do much because an opposing defense would be even more compacted, creating fewer and fewer chances from close-range (and the “Fantastic 4″ would certainly play in close rather than shooting from range). Another factor involved in this particular game would be substitutions. With Bojan injured, there is one less striker to put out there and leaving Gio as your only attacking option on the bench is a pretty foolhardy way to start a match. It’s not that Gio is bad, but he’s just one player and you need at least two attacking options on the bench, I think. Guddie could be one of those subs, of course, but he’s been playing as a low-lying midfield playmaker recently, so I’m discounting him as a real attacking option. Better to hold both Xavi and Henry on the bench and allow Edmilson to try to do his thing before letting the offense go nutso in the second half in need-be. Xavi could start for Edmilson, though, if Rijkaard wants to be able to put out a defensive midfielder midway through the second half.

There’s this other team, though, that should be discussed: Atletico. I hear they’ll be on the field too. Here is their squad: Falcón, Antonio López, Cléber Santana, Forlán, Raúl García, Luis García, Agüero, Maxi Rodríguez, Abbiati, Zé Castro, Jurado, Reyes, Miguel de las Cuevas, Mista, Perea, Pablo, Valera, Simao, Camacho.

Aguero returns from suspension, but has a little knock and may not be able to go the full 90; I expect him to, though, because he’s a fiery little bastard and he sure loves the competition. He and Forlan should be starting up front, with Simao returning from injury behind them. along with Ignacio Camacho.

For those of you who don’t know, Camacho is a 17-year old prodigy child superwonder that Atletico has been keeping under wraps until now. He’s not only expected to debut in the league against Barcelona, but start against us. To be honest, the kid is probably amazing. But. This is not some JV game that he’s walking into. It’s not Levante; it’s mother f-ing Barcelona. So, Javier Aguirre, if you’d like to start him against Xavi, Iniesta, or Deco, be my guest. I think he’ll be eaten alive, not because he doesn’t have talent, but because he’s never, not once, played at that high a level. Perhaps he’s played for Spain’s youth international teams, but not even U-21 is as good as Barcelona-Atletico. The difference in skill is insane, seeing as most of the players on the field are first team choices for their full national teams (in Barcelona’s case, only Edmilson isn’t a usual starter and if he doesn’t start, then every single FCB player will have started the previous competitive match of their national side*); welcome to the big-leagues, Camachito. Expect Deco to slice off one of his legs (and earn that all-important 10th card) sometime around the 30th minute. You know it’s going to happen even if they play nowhere near each other.

We aren’t going to beat them 3-0 like we did at the Camp Nou on October 7 (goals from Deco, Messi, and Xavi; naturally Xavi’s was in the 90th minute). Read my review of it here. It’s interesting, at least to me, to note this line of the review: “Are we the best team in Spain right now? I think so. RM might have a 2 point lead on us, but would they want to play us right now? I doubt it…for now I’m of the opinion that Barcelona is the team to beat in La Liga, even with all of our injuries.” Hell, that describes right now! No Toure and yet we’re still cock of the walk! Some quick statistical nonsense:

Atleti’s home record: 7W-2D-4L; 27GF, 18GA
Barca’s away record: 4W-6D-2L; 16GF, 11GA

Interestingly, Atleti’s 18 goals are the 4th worst in the league at home (behind Valencia’s and Levante’s 21 and Depor’s 19). That’s not something I’ve come to expect from them — last year’s game hosting us was an aberration and we all know it — and I expect them to bounce back at some point soon. They’ve lost 2 straight in the league and they were just bounced from the UEFA Cup (Valencia beat them in the Copa del Rey quarters) as well as having lost 4 of their last 6, drawing one of those others. They’ve scored in their last 4 games, even the two losses, so they’re certainly capable of scoring against us. However, Barca is tied for the best away defensive record in the league (11 allowed, tied with Real Madrid and behind only Atletico (10 allowed). So it depends what team shows up; rojiblanco fans will be hoping it’s the away defense that shows up and the home offense.

Official prediction: 1-2 Barcelona wins. The reason I say this is because we’ve been firing on all cylinders and I think Roanldinho, after making statements to the press that he should play for 90 minutes, will prove that he deserves to play all the time. Camacho will be subbed off early in the second when it’s obvious he can’t play with the big boys just yet, though he’ll show flashes of the brilliance to come. Aguero will score on a silly counter attack that Toure would have dealt with, but Edmilson will not be capable of. Messi and Eto’o will score. How’s that for definitive.

*I could be wrong about that because of Puyol, but I don’t think I am. I’m just too lazy to check. Ronaldinho too, but even so, I think he qualifies as a regular starter.