Barcelona - Deportivo La Coruña: Preview (Sunday, 3pm EST)

By: Isaiah | December 8th, 2007

Sometimes it seems like taking a week off from games is an eternity, especially in the middle of these seasons where the team is also playing in the Champions League, the domestic cup, and most of the squad is on their various international squads. This is one of those moments in the season that could prove extraordinarily vital to the title chase currently underway. Barcelona plays host to Galician side Deportivo La Coruña at the Camp Nou after an exciting week of nothing. But how can a week off be exciting? Lemme tell you: Samuel Eto’o and Deco are back. That’s how it can be exciting. The better news is that Deco has recovered from the flu and is set to appear for the first time since getting injured in the Villarreal game. That’s awesome stuff! Sport doesn’t think either will start, but I’m not particularly sure of that.

But let’s get into the nitty gritty right away. Here’s the squad available for the game:

Valdés, Jorquera, Zambrotta, Puyol, Milito, Thuram, Sylvinho, Abidal, Xavi, Iniesta, Deco, Márquez, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Eto’o, Ronaldinho, Bojan, Giovani.

This is the squad I expect to start:

Valdés, Zambrotta, Puyol, Milito, Abidal, Xavi, Iniesta, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Ronaldinho, Eto’o

There are several reasons I think this is best lineup to begin with. The first is that were it to pay dividends, Eto’o or Ronaldinho could be replaced by Deco while the other is replaced by Bojan. If Gudjohnsen doesn’t work out so great as a central midfielder, he can be replaced by Marquez, Deco, or Bojan. This would give Rijkaard flexibility in terms of bringing on a more attacking team were the game to be 0-0 or even 0-1 Depor, but if the game is 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Barca, Rijkaard would be able to bring on either a defensive midfielder/defender (Marquez) or a ball control wizard (Deco) to ensure that the team maintains possession and maintains the lead. Beyond that, it allows Eto’o to go all-out for 45 minutes, without worrying if he should be playing for 90. Bojan can replace him off the bench if he tires quickly. I don’t want to see Eto’o play even close to a full 90 minutes, which is why I would understand it if he didn’t get the start. That said, this is a game that is very winnable (statistical analysis below), but isn’t particularly easy in any way, so getting Eto’o off to a good start without pressuring him to score quite as much as would be the case were he to come on 0-0 with 20 minutes left or even down 0-1 with 30 or so minutes left.

Deco is not fully fit and is coming off of both an injury and an illness, so his place in the middle of the field should be occupied by Gudjohnsen. I’m not the biggest fan of Gudjohnsen, but I’m not going to deny that he will be able to fill a vital role for at 45 minutes against Depor: central attacking midfielder. I’m a big fan of the way Barca has played over the last couple of years without a defensive midfielder, so a return to that tactic is probably the best way to get through the illness-induced absence of Yaya Toure. Guddie will be able to fill in capably, if not brilliantly, against a side that the same: capable, but not brilliant. There have been rumblings in the press that Marquez and Bojan will start in place of Guddie and Eto’o, but I’m not so sure. It would be prudent to give Bojan some rest, I think, especially if his replacement is of such a high caliber.

Okay, so what of this Depor team? They’re currently 18th in the league, 2 points from 17th place Recreativo Huelva and 2 points from 19th place Real Betis. They’ve got an overall record of 3W-4D-7L, but are actually better on the road than at home, boasting a 2W-3D-2L record. That is, in case you’re counting, a better record than Barcelona’s away form (they’ve even scored more goals: 8 as opposed to 7 and allowed 8, just like Barca). But they’re going up against the best home record in the league, so I don’t expect them to fancy their chances quite as much. Still, you have to take them seriously. They’ve scored 13 goals total (14th in the league), 9 of which have been scored by 3 players: Riki, Xisco, and Guardado (3 each). So they like to attack on the left side, apparently. I’ll admit I haven’t seen Depor play much this year, but I have seen Guardado a fair bit (living in Mexico during the last World Cup will do that to you) and while I think he’s overrated in the Mexican press, he’s also a bit underrated in the Spanish press. Kid’s good. Strong left-side runs, tracks back, crosses well; he has a lot of energy, just not as much pace or skills as he’s given credit for. He’ll be a thorn in Zambrotta’s side, but I think that he’ll be handled adequately as long as Barcelona are able to maintain possession and not get caught out on counter attacks, a situation where Toure’s absence will be felt most keenly. Xavi will have to do a good job of delaying the counters so that Zambrotta doesn’t have to deal with full-fledged runs from Guardado and combinations between the forwards aren’t done at full speed. Depor has scored 8 of their 13 goals away from home, for what that’s worth.

Defensively there’s Coloccini, the ex-Argentine international, but other than that they just have capable players. They’re 12th defensively (21 goals allowed), suggesting they do exist as a backline, but aren’t up to the standards set by attacking forces like Barcelona’s. Again, though, their record away from home is 8 goals allowed, meaning 13 allowed at home. Strange to think that this could haunt Barcelona, but I don’t think it will. Despite having defeated Sevilla 0-1 at the Sanchez Pizjuan, Depor’s only two other wins came against Betis and Murcia, both in the bottom 5. In fact, Sevilla only has 1 point more than Murcia and yet resides in 12th. Against top half teams so far, they’ve lost @Espanyol 1-0, against Valencia 2-4, @Real Madrid 3-1, against Racing 0-1, drew with Mallorca 1-1, and drew @Getafe 0-0. They haven’t played Atletico Madrid or Real Zaragoza yet. They also lost to Almeria 0-3 in the Riazor on the first day of the season. Not a good way to start off your relegation battle…Keeper Dudu Aouate has made 42 saves this year, a pretty good number, meaning his defense allows shots, but he’s equal to many of them.* In comparison, Valdes has made 37 saves. That means the total number of shots on goal against Depor has been 63, while against Barcelona it’s been 48.

Barcelona, of course, are absurdly dominate at home. As I said, they have the best home record in the league, a mark set at 7-0-0 with 20 goals scored and 3 allowed. None of those 3 came together in the same game. Bilbao, Sevilla, and Zaragoza all scored 1, but never found that second. In fact, every team that has scored multiple goals in a game against Barca this year in La Liga has won (2 - Villareal and Getafe). Interesting anecdote. Anyway, there really doesn’t seem to be much to say about Barcelona’s home record other than that it is sterling. It is the best defensive record overall in the league, despite being somewhat “shoddy” away from home. 5 of the 8 goals allowed away from home were in those two losses.

So I’ll wrap this little preview up with a prediction: 2-0 Barca. Goals by Iniesta and Messi. Ronaldinho should have a good game and the re-emergence of Eto’o will give Messi some extra room on the flanks to make runs (as if he needs it). Iniesta will be able to do some cleanup whenever Dudu Aouate bobbles any of the shots coming his way.

* In comparison, Valdes has made 37 saves. That means the total number of shots on goal against Depor has been 63, while against Barcelona it’s been 48. Real Madrid, of course, have a porous defense in comparison, but a fantastic keeper. Casillas has made 55 saves, so there have been 69 shots overall on Madrid’s goal. Who would have thought that Madrid’s defense would give up more shots on goal than Depor’s while the latter is flirting with relegation while the former is 4 points clear at the top.

I should mention that, by the way: Real Madrid travel to that obnoxious little place called San Mames to play Athletic Bilbao. I expect a draw, to be honest. Bilbao will have picked up some confidence by beating Valencia at the Mestalla 0-3 last weekend and, to be honest, they’ve drawn 5 of the 7 times they’ve played at home this year. So more of the same, I think. We’ll find out this afternoon, of course, but hopefully it will allow Barcelona a chance to creep to within 2 points of the leaders before El Clasico.