Preview: Champions League semi-final, Barca v Chelsea. 1:45 p.m. CT, ESPN2

By: Kevin | April 27th, 2009

Here he is, ladies and gentlemen, the key to our Champions League hopes against Chelsea, a player whose recent run of form has reduced even Lionel Messi to open-mouthed astonishment.

Yes, it’s our very own translucent gem of a midfielder, Andres Iniesta.

Is everybody ready? I hope so, because it’s GO TIME!

There have been predictions, including all those British types who say that Chelsea is going to put it to us, that we’ve been poncing around in the Liga, and against Champions League opponents who haven’t really been our equal, such as Lyon and Bayern.

Are they right?

The obvious answer, to our worldview, is no. Hell, no, not even close.

Guardiola says “I have 100 percent faith in my squad.” Who are we to argue with that, because In Pep We Trust.

Standard line, being uttered by everyone, is that the tie will be decided at Stamford Bridge. Which is probably true. But I also know that if we play the way that we’re capable, we can decide the tie tomorrow, by putting a 3-0 or 4-0 hurting on Chelsea.

Likely? No. Because as much as Guus Hiddink (who is 1-7 against Barca lifetime) talks about playing an open game, I just don’t see it happening. He’d be crazy if he did, particularly with likely Ashley Cole replacement Bosingwa facing off against Messi. Yes, that’s Jose “Studs Up, What Hamstring Injury” Bosingwa, which should give some indication as to how serious Hiddink is about playing a straight-up match. I’ll expect Messi to be rocking the back of calf pads tomorrow.

In my worldview, there are a number of key matchups, but few as important as these:

Iniesta vs Chelsea defenders: Becasue of his roaming style, Ghostface pops up all over the pitch. His play will be crucial to us. The better he plays, the better we roll. Sevilla might have been his best match of the season, and it was a destruction. He can do the same to anyone, anywhere. Chelsea will be desperate to keep him out of the box, where his distribution to attackers has been off the charts.

Xavi vs Michael Essien: No offense to Liverpool supporters, but Xavi is no Steven Gerrard. He has better ball skills, better dribbling ability and better possession skills. If Essien tries to man-mark Xavi, I expect at least one card from him in the match. Essien is about the best box-to-box midfielder in the world right now. He marked Gerrard off the pitch. But Xavi is just a different matter because of the constant movement that is such a big part of his game.

Thierry Henry vs Branislav Ivanovic: If Chelsea can mark Henry with one man, it will make the jobs of Terry and Alex much easier in the center of the defense. If Henry has a good match, suddenly it tips the balance in favor of us, because an on-form Henry demands two men. This is in addition to the three on Messi, Essien on Xavi and two for Iniesta. And what about Eto’o?

Gerard Pique vs Didier Drogba: If Guardiola doesn’t start Pique, he’s out of his mind. I’m looking for a probable center pairing of Marquez and Pique. Guardiola, I think, knows of Puyol’s recent funk, and Chelsea don’t really have a real threat, should he decide to put Puyol at left back. Though why he would do that when we have a healthy Abidal is beyond me.

Messi is going to be good. He’s never had two bad matches in a row, and why would he start now? He’s always excelled on the big stage, and this is one of the biggest. The Yaya is rested and ready, and could provide significant help not only for Xavi, but against that Route One attack of which Chelsea is so proud.

Now, that’s all well and good, but the most critical thing in this match is not to concede. Give Chelsea an away goal or two rolling into Stamford Bridge, and it makes us have to chase the tie, which opens up our lines and puts the defenders in danger. Drogba is playing too well for us to allow that to happen.

Here’s our likely starting XI: Valdes, Alves, Marquez, Pique, Abidal (Puyol would surprise me, but not too much), The Yaya, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Henry, Eto’o. This is, right now, our strongest lineup. It’s also a lineup that has Puyol and Alves one yellow each away from missing the return leg, which is why I think we’ll see Abidal. He is never more certain than when he is at home, and Puyol will be important for that away leg, as he doesn’t rattle at key times.

This match could wind up 0-0, or 5-0, frankly. It depends on which Chelsea shows up. We have the player and ball pace to disrupt their back line. Yes, John Terry is still a top-class defender, but I’d take an on-form Messi against anyone in the world.

We can expect long shots to test Valdes, and long balls to test the resolve of the back line. Lampard and Alex are excellent free kick takers, and as with all top Premiership sides, Chelsea can be punishing on set pieces. Not giving up fouls in dangerous places will be critical, and Alves will have to rein in his tendency to give up cheap corners.

My prediction? 3-1 us. I think that Drogba is playing too well to be kept out of goal. For us, Messi, Henry and Eto’o will tally.

P.S. Another great thing about that Henry goal to make it 2-2 Valencia is that we can go all out against Chelsea, knowing that we can lose at the Bernabeu and still come out with the Liga lead, by a point. Then the Liga schedule relaxes a bit in opponent quality. Villarreal will play us tough, but we’re at home for that one. But the lads won’t get a full week’s rest until after the Copa finals.

And that’s life.

P.P.S. If anyone wants to run the LiveBlog, let me know via e-mail, kevvwill@yahoo.com.