Barca v Atletico Madrid, 3 p.m. CT, GolTV, a.k.a. “More than Messi v Aguero”

By: Kevin | October 3rd, 2008

Update with squad list (below)

Hmmmm, is what Pep Guardiola seems to be saying here. And it’s about his squad for the Atletico Match. He won’t be announcing the squad until after Saturday morning practice on match day. This is very unusual, but indicates a number of things, thinkest I.

He ain’t happy with the lack of clean sheets: In thinking back over the season, every goal scored on us has been kind of funky, and preventable. There were a couple that came from fine play by the other side. But most were Keystone Kops kind of stuff. He’s trying to suss out the best back line to prevent that.

The lads are tired: Two very intense matches in a row, both pulled out at the death means that he is probably looking at a squad that is physically and emotionally tired. They probably had a light practice today. He also said in the press conference that after the way the lads have played, that they deserve a full stadium today. And he’s right. But a full, screaming stadium also buttresses a tired side.

He’s wondering about matches to come: As we all know, Guardiola has had a heavy rotation this season. With internationals coming up next week, then a run against bottom-half opponents, winning the Atletico match is critical, but it’s also critical not to slip up against sides that we are supposed to beat. Folks who play in this match will almost certainly get a rest for the next Liga match.

He’s a good coach: Wanting to wait to watch practice to see who has what is not a bad thing. It also keeps Atletico on the back foot, as they won’t really know who to prepare for.

Here’s the just-released squad list: Valdes, Pinto, Jorquera (”Jordan”), Alves, Marquez, Pique, Puyol, Caceres, Abidal, Sylvinho, Xavi, Yaya, Busquets, Keita, Iniesta, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o, Krkic, Pedro

So everybody who is healthy is included. Practice Saturday must have been very good.

Recent form has been very good for both sides. ATM is 4-2 of its last six, with losses to Sevilla and Valladolid. We are 5-1 of our last six, with a lone draw at the beginning to Racing Santander.

This season has been different for ATM, in that they like the lion’s share of possession, same as we do. It gives them the chance to set up their formidable offensive weapons, such as Kun Aguero and Sinama-Pongolle, the kind of striker who gives our back line fits. Also expect stress from Luis Garcia and Maxi. Gregory Coupet is also an excellent keeper, who will keep out some shots that lesser keepers might allow. (Damn you, Domenech, for not playing him in the Cup final.)

Aguero is the big threat, without question. He’s almost as unplayable when he’s on form as Messi is. Someone big and fast needs to be in the house to counter that threat, so look for Abidal to be in the side. I think that Caceres will also make the back line, along with the stabilizing influence of Puyol.

My predicted starting XI: Valdes, Abidal, Caceres, Puyol, Alves, Yaya, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Iniesta, Eto’o.

Subs will depend on how the match is going, but look for the likes of Henry, Messi and/or Krkic.

Valdes and Abidal are the easiest predictions. Caceres is fresher than Pique, who needs a break. Puyol is in for stability’s sake, in the center, so he stays put. Alves is another easy one. He has to play his way out of the recent funk he’s had, and work on free kicks in the match. He’s coming closer and closer. He also won’t be coming up as much because of ATM’s counterattacking fluency.

In midfield, Yaya is daisy-fresh, having had a number of matches off. He played a lot against Shakhtar, but he’s ready. Busquets is exactly the kind of fluent, ball-controlling midfielder we need against a side that likes possession. After Aguero runs into Yaya’s sternum a couple of times, he’ll become a wing attacker, where Abidal and Alves had better be ready.

On the front line, Xavi (I like to think of him as an attacker the way he’s been playing of late) is a no-brainer. The way that he plays, he’s almost fatigue-proof. He showed some signs against Shakhtar, but shook them off. Eto’o gets the nod because he’s younger and fitter than Henry. Pedro and Iniesta will provide the necessary width from the left and the right. Why not start Messi? I’m not putting any faith in that “120 minutes per week” stuff as a factor. I think that all week long, it’s been “Messi v Kun,” “Kun v Messi.” Imagine what not seeing Messi will do to a team all keyed to show the world that they’re better than we are, and that Aguero is better than Messi. Can you say mental letdown? Bet you Eto’o or Krkic can.

But as we all know, trying to guess what Pep Guardiola will do is like herding psychic cats. We might see Gudjohnsen in midfield, we might see Messi start, to try for an early goal. But I still, when his minutes begin to climb, like seeing Messi as the super sub. He comes in when the other side is tired, and less willing to chase his scuttling ass around the pitch. He outran everybody on the Shakhtar side at one point or another the other night. That doesn’t happen at the beginning of the match.

What I do know is this: If we win this match, we get the tough-but-beatable Bilbao, then an easy Champions League runout against Basel, then Almeria, Basel, Valladolid and Recre. But it’s another intense period against land-mine kinds of Liga sides. A good rotation and player freshness will be paramount. Getting Hleb back will help a great deal, since it will allow rest for Xavi and Iniesta.

And that’s pretty much what I sort of semi, quasi know.

[Where to Watch. Isaiah will be at Phoenix Landing in Cambridge's Central Square area, rocking the usual jeans, red Jayhawks hat, glasses, and last year's home jersey (no number on the back)]