El Clásico: Saturday 4pm, GolTV

It’s upon us once again. El Clásico. A match that stirs our deepest emotions, both the good and the bad. The silliness which has taken over my recent posts is now over because we must enter into this match in deadly earnest. There is much to discuss, so off to the races we go.

Leading up to this game a lot of people have been suggesting that Real Madrid is not the force they once were, that this is going to be a pantsing for the merengues. Yes, Madrid has a host of injuries, but that doesn’t mean they’re suddenly a bunch of talentless hacks. Here is the list of missing players for Madrid:

Injuries: Van Nistelrooy, Diarra, De la Red, Heinze, Sneijder, Miguel Torres, Pepe
Suspended: Robben, Marcelo

Feel free to whine about that all you want, Madridistas, but here’s the probable starting lineup you’ll have: Casillas, Salgado, Metzelder, Cannavaro, Sergio Ramos, Van der Vaart, Gago, Guti, Drenthe, Raul, Higuain. You can’t tell me that that is a poor starting lineup. Well, you can, but if you do you’re not thinking clearly. I do not like Madrid, but I certainly respect their players and I know that there is gobs of talent in that lineup mentioned above. Even if there are one or two different changes made by Juande Ramos, they’ll come out looking basically like that.

The issue might be in the number and quality of subs available to Madrid. As the game wears on, Barcelona will only be made stronger by the potential insertion of players like Bojan and Busquets, rather than weakened by putting on an inexperienced Alberto Bueno (as good as he may be and the merengue faithful over at the Madrid Offside seem to be convinced he’s the second coming of, well, Raul). Not that that’s an excuse because it just proves your cantera is weak, but we’ll probably hear something of the sort if Barça comes out on top.

No matter how I slice and dice the opposing team, though, I always come back to the gaping hole that is Robben’s absence. He’s been their best player this year — at least he has been in the few games of theirs I’ve seen — and the general dismay coming from Marca and Corey (sorry to put you guys in the same sentence) because of his absence suggests that he’s a big deal. If he was the reason for their success in the Champions League against Zenit, then he’ll be sorely missed and his red card against Sevilla will be remembered by a lot of people for a long time.

Marcelo’s absence merely reduces their effectiveness going forward, but with Messi on the wing, it may not be the worst thing in the world that Marcelo is out. I realize that Juande Ramos put Marcelo in the midfield during the Zenit match, but he won’t have that option (or luxury, depending on how you look at it) this time around, so it’s Metzelder from the start and Salgado on the left. Salgado may be decent enough, but he’s over the hill and if he does start on the left against Messi, it will be a long night for him. Both he (Salgado) and Gago are going to have to play out of this world to stop Messi from bearing down on goal every few minutes. And that still might not help because that would free Xavi in the middle. Guti too will have to be able to feed the front trio (or duo, depending on how they’re aligned) with absurd precision in order to get them chances. But then there’s the small matter of one Yaya Toure being in the middle. Guti vs Yaya should be a tremendous battle, like Xavi vs Gago or Messi vs everyone else.

Can Sergio Ramos play on the left? I don’t know, but if he’s on the right, I think that’s the only matchup advantage Madrid has. Henry can’t beat him for pace, so we’ll have opportunities only if whoever is backing up Henry makes proper overlapping runs or can squeeze into the middle, finding gaps left unfilled by Canna and Gago. Henry needs to have a good game, but a good game would be providing smooth passes to other attackers, not grabbing a couple of goals (though that would be splendid). Another question mark for the Madrid defense will be whether or not Sergio Ramos is allowed to make runs forward, thus leaving Henry open on the wing to take on Cannavaro, a matchup I’m much, much more confident about, especially with Eto’o and Messi making runs into the box at the same time.

Well, there, I’ve covered their team. Basically, same as always: come out to play and kiss the game goodbye. Park the bus and you’ll never have a chance to win, but you might just come out with a point. If you’re lucky. What I mean is:

Typically, form and table position doesn’t matter at all when it comes to el Clásico, but it’s probably a bit silly to not put the match into its proper context. I haven’t had a chance to research whether or not relative table position has historical statistical leanings (like whether or not the higher ranked team typically gets a better result) or not, but it’s probable that such an analysis would suggest that Barcelona have the advantage both as the home team and as the higher ranked team. I don’t know if this is true, but that’s my hypothesis. [And then I discover this, from the Barça official site: "Barça and Real Madrid have met 78 times in the league at Camp Nou and the hosts have won 44 of those games while 16 have ended in draws and 18 have been away wins." Doesn't answer the question, but it helps give some perspective.]

Here are the current stats for both teams:
Barcelona: 1st, 11W-2D-1L, 35pts, 44GF 9GA
Real Madrid: 5th, 8W-2D-4L, 26pts, 33GF 24GA

Here are the Home vs Away stats:
Barcelona (home): 1st, 5W-2D-0L, 17pts (2.43 points per home game), 26GF 5GA
Real Madrid (away): 6th, 3W-1D-3L, 10pts (1.43 points per away game), 9GF 9GA

Barcelona has obviously been the better team throughout the year, averaging a ridiculous 3.71 goals per home game and allowing only 0.71. Real Madrid have average 1.29 goals away while allowing exactly the same (which suggests they average a draw, which, in a sense, they do even though they’ve got only 1 away draw). Barça averages a thumping win. Racing Santander (1-1) and Getafe (1-1) are the two draws, but there are several things that differentiate this match from those two. First, we have more team cohesion as Pep’s system has taken hold. Second, we’ve got Messi back healthy. I do think this changes quite a bit, especially if he’s going to come out fired up since he had such a trash game against Valencia. Time to show the world that you’re still the man, Leo the Lionhearted Messiah.

Now for the good guys, our heroes, the greatest team on earth (I categorically deny any allegations that I am biased!):

The big news coming out of the Camp Nou is that Iniesta is back to full training. Our own little SPF45 is back from his injury, but probably not ready for a starting place. We need to win this game more than we need to win any other game this year, so starting a player who, while obviously our first choice when healthy, has missed several weeks in a row is not the best move. Put in Gudjohnsen and replace him with Iniesta with 30 minutes remaining. (Iniesta has been out since November 4, by the way)

I know it’s hard to believe that I’m arguing for a fully-fit Iniesta to be sat behind Eidur Gudjohnsen, a man whose head I flatly called for in the previous edition of el clásico, but it’s not about skill or even team cohesion; it’s about match fitness, which is a step above anyone who is just returning from a month off 2 days prior to the most important game of the year.

Anyway, lineups, but without the benefit of a squad list. We don’t need one, though, because everyone is good to go except Gabi Milito. Just pick our best squad and that’s who will be there.

Last year’s starting lineup: Valdés, Zambrotta, Puyol, Márquez, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Bojan, Henry

The players in bold are the ones who will start this year, for sure, and then there’s Guddy in italics because there’s the possibility that Kieta, Hleb, Busquets, and Iniesta could step into that spot. I’m positive this is going to be the other 10 in the lineup:

Valdés, Alves, Márquez, Puyol, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o

Christ, that lineup just sounds like an ass kicking. But let’s put it head-to-head against what we’ll most likely see from Madrid:

Valdés, Alves, Márquez, Puyol, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Gudjohnsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o
Higuain, Raul, Drenthe, Guti, Gago, Van der Vaart, Sergio Ramos, Cannavaro, Metzelder, Salgado, Casillas

I put Madrid in “reverse” order to emphasize the matchups. Whether or not Valdés and Casillas are equal doesn’t matter at all. Valdés isn’t going one-on-one against Casillas, he’s trying to best Madrid’s forwards. The same goes for Casillas: he faces Eto’o and company head on. That means what Marca has done — compare all the players head-to-head — is between vaguely pedantic and as useful as Q-tip in a zombie movie. Abidal gets a minus because he is “Uno de los pocos habituales en el once azulgrana que está por debajo de las expectativas” (because he is “one of the few regular starters that performs below expectation”)…way to not watch a single match of ours this season, Marca. “Ineffective in attack and also hasn’t defended well.” Good points, for sure. Morons. (In their defense, they do bash Gago, though I disagree with their assessment of him as well)

On the field, our weakest point is, perhaps, Drenthe’s section, where he’ll have to be covered by Márquez, who will have the double responsibility of covering Raul and Higuain as they cross in the middle. It’s a tough role to have to play, though Alves will often be back on defense in his Little Engine That Could (Kick Your Ass) mode — that’s his new nickname unless there are objections: Little Engine. Now I know that Drenthe is probably their offensive weakpoint, but he’s still got the skills and putting him in the box with minimal coverage will lead to goals.

As I said, Yaya vs Guti should be the matchup to watch (Gago vs Xavi a close second) because if Yaya cuts off Guti, there is no one really to distribute the ball effectively. I am not convinced that VdV is capable of shouldering the load (though if he is, then putting Keita in would be the way to go because Guddy is not as capable defensively).

What ultimately matters is this: Barcelona vs Real Madrid. In the Camp Nou. Morbo. Saturday afternoon, 4pm Eastern Standard Time, on GolTV. Check out where you can watch it here, at the Where To Watch page. Note that I haven’t included Chicago on the list, but there’s Ginger’s Ale House, The Globe, and like one other that keeps being mentioned. I swear I’ll add them soon.

Please post feeds for those who do not have GolTV or access to a bar with it.

Now, for what you’ve all been waiting for. Official Prediction: 3-1, Barça. Goals by our three forwards, Messi, Eto’o, Henry. Hot damn, son, it’s going to be fun. I won’t be at Nevada Smiths this week because I’ve got other plans. Rock on, kids, and may you have a blast enjoying el clásico, be it your first or your 50th.

Visca el Barça!

Tot el camp
es un clam
som la gent Blau Grana
Tan se val d’on venim
Si del sud o del nord
ara estem d’acord
estem d’acord
una bandera ens agermana.
Blau Grana al vent
un crit valent
tenim un nom
el sap tothom

Barça!, Barça!, Baaaarça!!!!

Category: Barcelona, La Liga, Lineups, Preview

Tags: Andres Iniesta, Barcelona, El Clasico, Eric Abidal, La Liga, Lineups, Lionel Messi, Preview

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