Osasuna – Barça, Sunday 3pmEST, GolTV

By: Isaiah | January 10th, 2009

So, after facing a run of the toughest of the tough, it’s to the basement dwellers we go. We’ll get into the various stats of each team in a moment, naturally (I mean, this is me writing this post, after all), but there is something else I’d like to highlight.

If you read the official site, Sport, or El Mundo Deportivo (and probably some other places), you already know that the man pictured, one Xavier Hernández Creus, is about to play his 300th league game for FC Barcelona. That puts him in rare air, towards the pinnacle of a major club: only 6 others have achieved this honor in 109 years of playing. One big Congratulations to our Xavi, who has been holding down the “best midfielder in Europe whether you know it or not” tag for a couple of years now. I wonder if DVD sales of 300 will go through the roof in Catalunya and result in several hundred (perhaps 300, just for symmetry) disgruntled fans demonstrating in front of the Camp Nou. So drinks up in toast of the little maestro, please.

Now let’s go to Pamplona, to Osasuna and its Estadio Reyno de Navarra, to see what is in store for FCB. Who is Osasuna? Basically, this year, they’re the worst team in the league. They’ve earned 13 points from 17 matches, putting them in 20th place, though only by a single point. Overall they’re 2W-7D-8L (17GF, 23GA). They’re somehow neither completely horribly bad on offense or defense — they’re merely mediocre horrible at both. Only 2 teams have scored fewer goals (Recre and Espanyol – Almeria has scored the same number), but 11 teams have allowed more (including Real Madrid).

A quick statshot comparison:

Osasuna at home: 2W-4D-2L (12GF, 10GA) 1.25pts per home game
Barcelona away: 7W-0D-1L (20GF, 5GA) 2.63pts per home game.

I’m not entirely sure how one comes up with the likelihood of a particular outcome (home win, draw, or away win), but according to this site, there’s a 41% chance that Barcelona leaves with a win. That feels low, but Osasuna doesn’t get its ass handed to it at home — their only two home losses are 0-1 to Racing and 0-2 to Betis. You can’t say that Barcelona isn’t in for a tough time up north, just ask Getafe, who lost 5-2 in the last game there, but looking at the stats, how can you not see Osasuna getting blanked?

Yet, naturally, Osasuna goes in with massive confidence. Or at least you imagine that they have confidence, if they’re uttering things like “”It is an important match, first against last, but we will not make it easy and Barcelona will not take a point from Pamplona,” which Javad Nekounam said recently. Okay, Mr. Nekounam, whatever you say. I respect you as 1) a professional soccer player and 2) the leading goalscorer on your team. However, I must point out these small facts: you have scored 4 goals this season (accounting for almost one quarter of your teams total goals, and you started every game so far). Again, I’m not sure about the math, but I can pretty much assure you that your chances of holding Barcelona scoreless are virtually nil and your chances of scoring are very few — only 1 team has held Barcelona scoreless this year and that was 16 games ago and the team averages 3 goals per game; Barcelona also allows only 0.65 goals per game. Both are league-best stats, of course.

Comparing the percentage of points each has actually earned (Barcelona has earned 44 of 51 possible points, or 86.3%, while Osasuna has earned 13pts, or 25.5%) suggests Barcelona are going dominate the proceedings, but, again, the at-home stats for Osasuna don’t lie. Not only that, but Osasuna are on a “hot” streak, having beaten Getafe 5-2 at home and then gone to Sevilla and drawn 1-1. Their goal against Sevilla came in the final minute and was scored by the ageless Walter Pandiani. The problem there is is that if you’re going to rely on Walter Pandiani and Javad Nekounam to score all of your goals, you’re going to need stellar defense against an offense whose top 3 players have all individually scored more in the league than Osasuna’s top 2 combined. Eto’o by himself has scored 2 fewer than Osasuna as a team (15 to 17) and has scored as many goals in a single half (4) as Nekounam has scored all year.

Again, I’m not saying Osasuna shouldn’t be respect or taken seriously, but beyond their comments about beating Barcelona (and every professional player has to believe that they can win any game they play — Giants vs Pats, for instance, or Appalachian State vs Michigan, to throw in the amateurs) there are quotes of their players basically admitting to approaching the game with hatchets in hand. Nacho Monreal, Osasuna’s left back, has claimed that Messi will suffer throughout the game, that “it won’t be a pretty afternoon for him.” Nice. Now I think that Messi is going to score 14 against you, in that “You just told LeBron James there’s no way he can posterize you?” kind of way. Right.

If you’re more interested in the balanced view of things, Jose Antonio Camacho, Osasuna’s coach, has stated that FCB is the best team in the league right now (really?), but that no game is decided before it has started. Phil Simms, of course, thinks that no game is decided until all 90 minutes have been played. And he is willing to tell you that, repeatedly. That Camacho, journeyman coach, has come out and said this is not a surprise, really, but it must be remembered that he knows how to play Barcelona, having been a Madrid left back for 16 years (414 league appearances according to Wikipedia). Though never a true success — he has guided lower league teams into Primera — Camacho knows his business, as his appointment to the Spanish helm and that of Real Madrid suggest. He’ll know how to approach the game, but his team is still destined for relegation, so it’ll be hard for them to get a point against us, I would imagine.

Now, to Barcelona. The squad list has been released, which is great, because it gives me something to actually write about. This week’s version is: Valdés, Pinto, Alves, Sylvinho, Cáceres, Puyol, Piqué, Abidal, Touré, Keita, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Gudjohsen, Messi, Henry, Eto’o, Bojan.

Hleb and Marquez are the only names of true note missing, though Victor Sanchez and Pedro are out too. Hleb, as I understand it, is struggling with fitness — the official site says he’s “suffering from bruising,” whatever that means — while Marquez is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Not a problem, says I, who would like to see the following lineup:

Valdés, Alves, Piqué, Puyol, Abidal, Touré, Xavi, Iniesta, Henry, Eto’o, Messi.

I like that lineup because I think it’s the best one we have and we’re already up 3-1 in the Copa match, so we can use our best players to gain 3 more points in the league without fearing too much about getting eliminated from the Copa. Also, it allows Iniesta to slide into his more natural role of left-sided playmaker alongside his Xavitude.

While I like the concept of The Yaya, Busi, Xavi in midfield and Iniesta, Eto’o, and Messi up front, I don’t think we can deny Henry a starting spot simply because he’s been very good recently and Iniesta is still probably not at 100% match fitness. This way we can shuffle if we need to later (Bojan and Busi on, for example), without losing too much continuity in our attack.

So there you have it, folks. Official Prediction: 2-0, Barcelona. Goals by Messi and Eto’o. No way the Cameroonian lion doesn’t get one after so many weeks off the scoresheet.