Preview: Barça – Bilbao; Saturday 2pm

By: Isaiah | March 6th, 2009

You know what? Screw the Madrid derbi. I don’t care how important it is, I want to watch Barça take on Bilbao in a much more important match than whatever happens in the Burn-a-bow. GolTV, pandering to the RM faction makes me sick. Please don’t mention that the Catalan derbi was shown instead of the RM-Betis match. Cause I don’t care for your so-called “facts”. I want me some Barça. So I guess we’re all going to have to tune in to rojadirecta or some such to see the game.

Bilbao, Bilbao, oh wonderful Bilbao. You culinary delight, you beautiful city; you seem so enchanting, so different from anywhere else. No, you’re no San Sebastian (Arzak and Mugaritz alone sound good enough to win the title of Best Basque City Isaiah Has Never Been To), but you sound delightful. However, you’ve got no Sagrada Familia, no Gaudi in general, this long list of theaters, nor do you have, most importantly of all, a single Camp Nou. And that, dearest Athletic Bilbao, is where you must visit this weekend. If you were a lovable cartoon character you might be saying “ruh-roh”.

That’s not to say, however, that Barça will just waltz through this game. Not in the least. Fran Yeste and Fernando Llorente may have a thing or two to say about these sorts of things. Llorente already has 10 goals this season while Yeste has 2 (and some skilled leadership; he’s their vice-captain). They’re a tough team, for sure. Tough like Clint Eastwood in Redemption. I imagine they all have similar gruff voices, too.

Their squad: Iraizoz, Toquero, Koikili, Amorebieta, Garmendia, Llorente, Yeste, Gabilondo, Armando, Susaeta, Iraola, Orbaiz, Etxeberria, Gurpegi, Muñoz, Javi Martínez, Etxeita, Balenziaga.

They started their last league game (1-2 away loss to Sevilla) with this lineup: Armando, Amorebieta, Etxeitia, Balenziaga, Aldekoaotalora Ustaritz, Muñoz, Gurpegui, Gabilondo, Susaeta, Toquero, Ion Velez. They scored through Gabilondo. In their Copa game during the week (3-0 win at home against Sevilla), they went with: Iraizoz, Del Campo Koikili, Amorebieta, Iraola, Aitor Ocio, Toquero, López, Yeste , Orbáiz, Javi Martinez, Llorente.

I’m sure they’ll throw Llorente back into the mix, as well as anyone else (like Yeste, Amorebieta) who they consider to be their best startling 11. And yeah, I typo-ed, putting an L in “starting” — but perhaps it was a Freudian slip and I’m actually quite worried about this game. I suppose perhaps I am, but let’s go through the statistical comparisons before getting into the whole “who’s going to win and why” thing (which I usually just explain as “cause..yeah, cause I said so”).

PPG = points per game; GPG = Goals For Per Game; GAPG = Goals Against Per Game

Overall:
Barça: 1st, 60pts; 19W-3D-3L (74GF, 23GA); 2.40PPG, 2.96GPG, 0.96GAPG
Bilbao: 10th, 31; 8W-7D-10L (35GF, 39GA); 1.24PPG, 1.40GPG, 1.54GAPG

Home/Away:

Barça: 2nd, 32pts; 10W-2D-1L (44GF, 9GA); 2.46PPG, 3.38GPG, 0.69GAPG
Bilbao: 14th, 11pts; 2W-5D-5L (15GF, 22GA); 0.92PPG, 1.25GPG, 1.83GAPG

Statistically, this is pretty much a no-brainer. But it’s not down to statistics to decide the match, especially after Barça lost to the 20th placed team in the standings and before a crucial quarterfinal second-leg Champions League match. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of crushing Bilbao with our best possible lineup because we need to get back to winning ways. Not drawing ways, which we seem to be good at, but actual winning ways. You know, where we score more goals than the other team. What a concept, eh?

We’re going into this match without Alves and Caceres because of suspension (how does a red card in the Copa mean you’re suspended for a league game while you can’t serve a suspension from the league in the Copa?) and both Milito and Abidal are out through injury (apparently Milito is still not back to full fitness), so our back line is going to have to put in the work to fill all the gaps and yet also provide support for the midfield and forwards. So here’s what I suggest, now that Don Andres is back, but Alves is out: Valdes, Puyol, Marquez, Pique, Sylvinho, Busi, Xavi, Iniesta, Henry, Eto’o, Messi.

The back line is probably of the most interest to we piddling folk simply because we’re missing 2 of our starters and a Supermartín. Puyol on the right gives us a small amount of attacking capabilities (though he usually surprises me with his attacking enterprise), but we need him on defense to help out with Llorente (who is 6′5″! That is taller than The Yaya! Well…when The Yaya allows him to be taller, anyway.) and anyone else who decides to venture up the field in hopes of ~~being kicked by Rafa~~ scoring. Thus the need for Sylvinho on the left to provide forward-moving support on a consistent basis while Puyol stays home and brutally murders counterattacks like some sort of Roman gladiator. Like this, but with fewer living opponents.

I think Iniesta’s presence can help us to alleviate Alves’ lack of playing by being the link between Sylvinho and Henry that has been the bane of our left side for a while. We haven’t had anyone (Hleb, Keita? Bueller?) to fill that role since Iniesta got injured, so now’s our chance to put a hurtin’ on a team with a mediocre defensive record (14th overall; 13th away) and get a few minutes of substitution time for our starters before the Lyon game (thankfully on Wednesday). I think that we can easily pull Henry if we think that we need him for the Lyon game and shift Iniesta forward, though I think I’d rather have a fresh bottle of SPF45 than some…whatever Henry is (cologne? I don’t know). The reason is not because I think Iniesta scores more goals or even creates more goals than Henry, but because I think that midfield control is crucial against Lyon, who will be looking to whack us every time we touch the ball. So keeping Iniesta fresh is definitely more important than keeping Henry fresh. Part of that is also because Iniesta is just coming back from injury and you don’t want to push a player too much right out of the blocks. I also think that Henry is a much more intelligent player than Iniesta in the sense that Henry is always able to conserve energy for a final push if it’s necessary (and he seems to understand when that will be). Iniesta isn’t quite there in terms of understanding his own body and he runs himself into the ground every now and then like Messi does. That’s experience for you. Perhaps intelligent was the wrong word, but there it is anyway, staying where I first put it cause I hate the backspace.

Messi and Xavi are going to have to play solid games, but I don’t expect them to make the highlight reels in this game because they won’t be given all that much space thanks to Alves’ suspension. I just think that they need to play their part, which is more distributive in these moments than attacking. Even Messi is just going to have to create some space around himself and move horizontally a lot, with the occasional attack to keep the defenders on their toes. I expect any of our goals to come from their right side/our left side and then, perhaps, we’ll see Messi in his full splendor, like against Mallorca, taking on defenders in the open field, where no one can stop him without fouling.

There is a rumor going around, specifically in Sport that we may include Alberto Botía in the lineup. He’s a defender, so it makes sense to put him on the bench just in case. Just in case, you know, we’re winning 6-0 and we feel like giving a defender or two a rest. There is absolutely no other reason whatsoever on the face of the planet we could possibly need another defender available. Do not even suggest such crazy and impossible things. In fact, stop thinking about what I’m talking about — and I’m not talking about it! — and move on to other things. Puppies! Flowers! Natalie Portman! Thoughts of those should distract you from tempting fate — which I didn’t do, I might add.

Is Botía to be included at the expense of Victor Sanchez, who hasn’t played since his disastrous game as a central defender against Mallorca? I suppose so, right? I don’t know. I mean, we’re talking Guardiola here, after all. Basically, both Botía and VicSan are big risks in a game we don’t need to take risks in. Perhaps at the end, like I said, but not at the beginning, when we need to shutdown and give out a beat down. That’s the kind of game I’m looking for and I think that Bilbao will more than oblige. I expect no less than a billion yellow cards. That’s right.

We need to play with a chip on our shoulder and get back to winning. I think that we will go out and play hard and well, fast and fancy, tough and strong. Plus some other adjectives that Kevin will supply in the review. I guess that’s about all I have to say…so that just leaves

The Official Prediction: 2-1 Barça, goals by Henry and Messi. I just cannot see us drawing or losing this game. We need this game to restore some confidence and, really, just to freakin’ win. I don’t think Bilbao will ever really get out of their shell so it shouldn’t be particularly high scoring. I also haven’t gotten a scoreline right for quite a while so it’s about time my optimism pays off.

If you need somewhere to watch the game, remember, it is not on GolTV, so you’ll have to rely on the onlines. I suggest RojaDirecta. And that’s all I have to say about that.