Preview: Barça – Depor, Saturday 2pmEST, GolTV

By: Isaiah | January 16th, 2009

I had a dream last night that Kevin had, without previously telling me he was doing so, written this preview. I don’t know what that says about my mental character, but I remember there was a picture of Iniesta at the beginning of the post (hence the one here, sans the armband). The picture represents all that is right about Iniesta. He is our SPF45, our little engine that could. He’s not pretty — in fact he’s pretty much an ugly duckling that turned out to just be an ugly duck rather than a swan — but he’s brilliant, effective, and deserving of our praise. He’s celebrating his goal against Mallorca in the picture, by the way, which is what makes this picture so great.

We’re in the middle of a long run of games with this game against Deportivo La Coruña being sandwiched between Copa legs against Atleti and Espanyol. No doubt many cule eyes are set on the derbi catalan that we get to witness an extra two times this year, but I’d like to think that the league is still of the utmost importance. This match signals the exact middle of the season and we can’t start congratulating ourselves just yet, despite the general meltdown of most of the top teams and Real Madrid’s current status as the laughing stock of the footballing world. Teams tend to operate somewhat independently of their club’s status (remember when we had a huge crisis and were in second in the league for most of the year? Right, if that’s a crisis, then the perpetual meltdown that is the daily life of a Levante supporter should bring tears to our eyes) — especially when the newspapers begin to scream about terrible seasons only 5 or 6 games in.

We’re on a blistering tear in the league, but Depor is no slouch of a team and it will take a full commitment to beat them. Depor sits in 7th place in the league, 17 points back of FCB, but tied with both Villarreal and Atleti. Overall, they are 9W-3D-6L (23GF, 22GA; 1.67pts per game), which is a perfectly reasonable result, but 6 of their 9 wins came at home — and they’re away for this one. Their 3 away wins were at Betis, Almeria, and Getafe (none of which, incidentally, Barcelona has visited as of yet) — their away record is 3W-2D-4L (9GF, 13GA; 1.22pts per away game).

Over their last 8 league games Depor is 5W-0D-3L, with two of those losses coming away to Valladolid (3-0) and Atleti (4-1) and one coming at home against Sevilla (1-3). In between Sevilla and their previous league game (a 1-2 win at Getafe), they lost twice to Sevilla in the Copa del Rey and are now out of that competition for obvious reasons. No doubt they’re looking to get back to their winning ways, but the Camp Nou seems a tough place to choose to do so.

In his generally excellent Big Weekend Preview, Arthur Antunes Coimbra of 101GreatGoals.com is right to highlight Barça’s right side and Depor’s left side as the true battles of this match, but I do think that he goes the route of overrating Andres Guardado like everyone else. Yes, on the Mexican national team, Guardado has scored several nasty goals, but he was playing at Atlas while I lived in Mexico and I was always underwhelmed by him. Perhaps I will be proven wrong tomorrow about his skills and capabilities, but let’s be serious: Guardado vs Alves is not a true contest. I don’t know much about Luis Felipe, but I’ll go ahead and put my money on Messi to show him a thing or two along the touchline and the box. I’m not saying they’re not good players, I’m just saying that Guardado is overrated by many who haven’t watched him for several years — and by some who have, actually.

Oddly, I’ve always been a fan of Guardado’s teammate and fellow Mexican, Omar Bravo. He was, for a couple of years, probably the least respected striker in Mexico, despite his decent scoring record and obvious skills. Now, I’m pretty sure that at 28 Bravo has topped out while Guardado, at 23, hasn’t peaked as a player — or at least I hope not for his sake. Still, I’m strangely always rooting for Omar Bravo to prove everyone wrong and against Guardado, probably to prove myself right. Feel free to note that Bravo has scored just once in the league and once in the Copa for Depor this year. Moot point anyway, since Bravo is suspended for the game.

Their top goal scorer is Ángel Lafita, a midfielder who has put in 5 in 16 appearances. Now, mind you, I don’t know anything about Lafita, but there shouldn’t be any doubt that he’s a danger man, especially if their strikers (Bodipo, Riki, Cristian) have combined for 4 goals, 3 of those by Bodipo. Add in Mista and you have another goal from the forwards, but that’s still fewer than either Eto’o or Messi have scored individually and only one more than Thierry Henry has scored individually — if you combine the scoring records of Lafita, Bodipo, Riki, Cristian, and Mista. What’s interesting is that Depor’s defenders get in on the action now and then, especially the aforementioned Luis Felipe, who has netted twice so far this season.

I’d like to point out now that Cristian is an FCB product, having been at Barça B for a few years, so no doubt he’ll be entering with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove. He’s 25 and apparently he made one appearance for the FCB 1st team, in a Copa del Rey match against Zamora back in early 2006 (this is info from Wikipedia, so it’s not clear which of the two legs, the 1-3 victory or the 6-0 victory for Barça gave Cristian his debut).

Now, to the things you’ve all been patiently waiting for:

Barça Barça Barça. Is that what you wanted? Are you happy now? Oh, you wanted analysis of Barça Barça Barça? Hmm. I guess I can oblige that crazy notion. But just this once, mind you. The thing is, no matter how many times I end up writing out squad lists and lineups and no matter how many times Kevin does his review thing, other Liga teams don’t seem to be paying any attention. First it was Atleti still listing Zambrotta as a member of our squad, now it’s Depor writing Terry Henry in an official club announcement. And they list their vice-captain as John Charles Valeron, right? (Juan Carlos Valeron, by the way)

Anyway, I suspect that Terry will be starting this weekend, since he didn’t feature in the win against Ateti. Do you think he and Pique get into fashion discussions now and then? And does Pique look down on Henry for the latter’s chic sophistication while Messi wonders, while listening in, what functional utility either of their belts have since they’re worn outside the belt loops? Does Henry push Pique to wear designer trucker hats, but Pique shoots him down, saying they’re not ironic enough? Or can they not hear each other over the Incubus Guardiola has playing on the team bus?

All this is just a way of me saying I don’t have a squad list to muddle my way through. All we know is that Depro’s coach has said they’re going to lose and Guardiola has called Lotina a wily cat. Rock on, random mind games that aren’t really mind games.

Let’s compare home and away records for the two teams
Depor Away: 3W-2D-4L (9GF, 13GA)
Barça home: 7W-2D-0L (31GF, 6GA)

I’m not sure how to statistically whittle it down to the most likely outcome, but it seems fairly obvious that a team that scores the horizontal mirror image of the other team’s goals allowed (13 – 31) while allowing only the vertical mirror image of the other team’s goals scored (9 – 6) must be the favorite, right? That’s some fancypants analysis, if I’ve ever seen any. But seriously, 31 goals scored and only 6 allowed is not something to mess around with, especially if you’re having a hard time scoring goals away from home (1 per game vs a defense that allows 0.67; an offense that scores 3.44 against a defense that allows 1.44). Let them score their paltry 8/10ths of a goal and we’ll take our 2.44 goals and the 3 points that come with them.

Even before I get into the squad stuff, here’s my official prediction: 3-1. We’re going to toast them and they’ll get a late consolation goal through Riki. Or someone else. Our three goals will be Messi, Eto’o, and Xavi all getting together and flattening the defense. Henry should have a decent enough game too. Because all 4 of them are going to start.

My pre-squad-release lineup: Valdes, Alves, Marquez, Puyol, Abidal, Toure, Xavi, Iniesta, Henry, Eto’o, Messi. I know that that lineup is very unlikely to occur simply because 1) we’re talking Guardiola here and 2) because the Espanyol matches are extraordinarily important so some players may be rested against Depor that would otherwise be playing. There are reports that Messi and Iniesta picked up some knocks against Atleti — really, Messi got hurt from that vicious Perea tackle? No way… — but that they should be fine to play against Depor. Busi and Alves both picked up muscle soreness as well and might miss, but probably won’t. My only question is what’s up with Busi’s suspension for yellow card accumulation? Was one of them rescinded or is he going to be out for this game?

Toure is going to be so pissed after watching video of Simao hitching a ride on his hip and I don’t envy Depor’s central midfielders their position as Yaya Revenge Magnets. Brutal death by firing squad might be an apt descriptor of what I expect from the Juggernaut in terms of Depor’s players, but Guardiola may see it as a good idea to rest him if Busi doesn’t have to serve a suspension. And by the way, please give Yaya a raise. I’m just sayin’, dude’s a monster.

So, basically, updates to come once the squad list is out — but look for the updates in a match comments post to go up tomorrow morning. And remember, as always, if you’re looking for a place to watch the game, check no further than this Where to Watch guide. Jason, could you send me the info about where to watch Barça in San Diego? If anyone else has contributions, let me know. I should be at Nevada Smiths tomorrow for the game, so if you’re going to be there, give a shoutout.

One last thing: Happy Birthday, Seydou Keita. Rock on, Mr. 29-years old.