State of the Liga: the First “Half”

By: Isaiah | December 29th, 2008

So here we are, at the winter break, waiting breathlessly, I’m sure, for the transfer window to open (so that Barça can buy no one and Real Madrid can purchase more injured players). Might as well review the first “half” of the season. Really it’s the first 42% since it’s not until January 18 that we complete the 19th match of the season against Deportivo La Coruña.

I’m going to focus on Barcelona at first, before handling the rest of the league, because there are good pre-Christmas campaigns and there are great pre-Christmas campaigns. Marca, of all places, pointed out that Barcelona has equaled the best ever record in the league for the first 16 games, having earned 41 of 48 possible points (13W-2D-1L). Apparently this equals a Real Madrid team from 60-61 if points had been allotted in the same way (Marca goes to some great length to put the words “just like Real Madrid” into their article about 50 times). Regardless, it’s the best start in the history of our club, which is just fantastic.

Stats breakdown time:
Overrall
13W-2D-1L 41pts (48GF, 10GA)
2.56pts per game, 3GF per game, 0.63GA per game

Home
6W-2D-0L 20pts (28GF, 5GA)
2.50pts per game, 3.50GF per game, 0.63GA per game

Away
7W-0D-1L 21pts (20GF, 5GA)
2.63pts per game, 2.50GF per game, 0.63GA per game

I won’t lie and say those stats aren’t mind-bogglingly wonderful. We’re the best team in Europe, maybe even the universe, unless there some sort of soccer-playing version of the Matt Groening Harlem Globetrotters that I don’t know about.

FCB is 10 points clear of second-place Sevilla, 11 points clear of Atletico Madrid and Valencia, and 12 points clear of Real Madrid and Villarreal, who round out the teams in the European spots. Here are the top 7, in fun Excel table form.

I’ve included Depor because they are only 2 points back of a UEFA spot (Valladolid lies 4 points behind them with 23) and because I think that Depor has quietly gone about being a solid team. They started the year out with a win at home against Real Madrid (2-1) and then a tight 1-0 loss at the Madrigal.

As I write this, Liverpool is top of the EPL with 42pts in 19 games. Chelsea is second with 38pts. Liverpool earned 2.21pts per game to Chelsea’s 2.16. Inter Milan, fresh off their win over Siena, is sitting pretty at the top of Serie A with 41 points from 17 games (2.41pts per game), six points on chasers Jueventus. In Germany, Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich are tied at the top with 35pts from 17 games (2.06pts per game). In France, Lyon has a 3-point margin over second place with 38pts from 19 games (2pts per game).

Extrapolating what has happened so far in the Spanish league to 19 games played, the stats would look approximately like this (with some rounding up and some down):

Barça: 49pts
Sevilla: 37pts
Atleti and Valencia: 36pts
Real Madrid and Villarreal: 34pts
Depor: 32pts

That would put Barça first in a theoretical European-wide table (and don’t tell me that it’s all relative competition because I’m not examining that right now, merely point totals — not only that, but I’m not considering that several of the teams listed above play each other in the coming weeks or would have to play each other and thus would reduce points available). It puts the other Spanish teams roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of upper crust teams (European place teams).

After January 18, when everyone has played everyone else, we’ll know better who is the true “winter champion,” but that title, as always, means absolutely nothing without the remaining 19 games tacked on. Barça are the clear favorites to take the crown, of course, being on pace to get 97 or 98 points (97.375 to be exact — round that either way you’d like), with 114 goals scored and 24 goals allowed. Um. A +90GD? Holy. Shit. Well that’s the pace we’re on, so despite the fact that that’s not going to happen (it’s not; don’t fool yourself into thinking it will — for one there are trips to Valencia, Real Madrid, and Atletico ahead), let’s assume the top 6 are in the Europe to stay (Depor is a pretender, I think, based on their goals scored and goals allowed numbers, but they are right there, so you never know).

The middle of the pack, now, is interesting because, in a sense, it’s not the least bit interesting. It’s what it usually is by this time: teams good enough not to go down, but not good enough to make it to the European spots. Starting with Valladolid, spots 8 through 14 are probably all in that category, though Racing Santander may be pushing their luck by the end of the season. Real Betis, sitting in 13th, also may not be faring so well by the end, but I think they’ll be a bit higher up based on what I’ve seen of them.

Valladolid was on a tear before losing in a ridiculous comeback from Numancia that suggest some sort of absurd weakness on Valladolid’s part…except that Numancia are the only team to have beaten Barcelona and they did it in Los Pajaritos, which is where they did it to Valladolid. Since losing to Barcelona 6-0 at the Camp Nou, Valladolid has beaten Real Madrid (1-0), Villarreal (0-3), and Depor (3-0), moving them from a “meh” team to a “hmm” team that has finally broken into the positive goal difference bracket, in which only 7 other teams currently reside.

Málaga sits in that position of obscurity in my mind, despite having beaten Sevilla in the Sanchez Pizjuan (0-1), nearly taken Madrid in the Bernabeu (4-3), and drawn with Villarreal (2-2). In there somewhere was a rain-soaked 1-4 loss to Barça. I know I watched them and I know I remember thinking they weren’t that good at all, but then again they beat Sevilla and drew with Villarreal so they must have something going for them…I think. I need to watch them more often, apparently. Anyway, they’ll survive easily enough, if not spectacularly.

Getafe, despite losing 5-2 to last placed Osasuna (what? seriously? 5-2? To Osasuna?), are a solid side that drew with Barça (1-1), beat RM (3-1), and then drew with Villarreal (3-3; though they were up 0-3 in what quickly turned into an insane game). That, to me at least, suggests they’re going to stay up, but that loss to Osasuna (and others like them) will keep them squarely out of Europe.

While I hate to admit it, I think that I’m going to owe John a beer on our bet concerning Sporting Gijon’s status in the top flight. They’re a plucky bunch and despite having their proverbial rumps handed to them by both Barça and RM (1-6, 7-1 respectively), they tend to pick up points against mid-table and relegation zone teams — and beat Deport 0-3 and Valencia 2-3 to boot. They’re not offensively fantastic (24GF), but they do enough to make up for their “bad” defense (35GA, worst in the league). That 35GF stat includes the 13 goals put in during that bad two game stretch, of course — as it should, since no one can take a game off and expect to earn points — so 22 goals in 14 games (1.57GA per game) is very middle-of-the-pack. With the 13 goals added back in, their only competition for worst defense in the league is little Numancia, who just happened to be the only team to beat Barça and were nearly the first team to shock RM in the Bernabeu (4-3 loss). Sporting Gijon are, by the way, the only team yet to draw a match. Seven wins and nine losses, eh? You could be playoff bound in the AFC West…

Last year’s “Oh crap I just survived, but I soiled myself in the process” team, Athletic Bilbao, is currently residing all the way up in 12th, which is somewhat shocking, in a way. They’re on 19 points, thanks to a timely victory over Real Betis to earn their first 3 points away from home and are looking a lock for their 10 millionth consecutive year in the top flight. What was a dismal campaign at first has seen 10 points earned out of the last 12 possible thanks to victories over Numancia, Gijon, and Real Betis. Scrappy against Barça and RM, they definitely could give several teams a run for their money in the second half.

Real Betis and Racing Santander round out the group that I think are safe, more because of the eyebrows I’ve raised at their play during various matches than because of any statistical markers. They’re both middle of the road both offensively (21 and 18GF, respectively) and defensively (22GA each). Betis displayed pluck and some amount of skill in their game against Barça (3-2 loss at the Camp Nou), won a string of games in November to shoot clear of relegation, and then have stuttered back downwards of late, having gotten only 1 point from their last 4 matches and that one was at home against relegation Espanyol.

Racing, while tied on points with Betis, do not give me quite the confidence in their survival. They will survive, I’m sure, but I don’t see them as anything other than lower-to-mid-table team. Yes, they drew with both Sevilla and Barça to start the year (both 1-1) and weren’t blown out by either RM or Villarreal (0-2 and 2-0, respectively), but they’ve drawn 1-1 three straight matches against underwhelming competition (Athletic Bilbao, Almeria, and Málaga, only one of which has been mentioned so far). They’re my “could fall” team right now, though that’s probably cherry-picking to some degree. Anyone think they’ll go up in the table over the second half?

When we first checked in this year on the league as a whole, Betis and Gijon were anchoring the bottom of the table, so they’ve certainly come a long ways. I said Betis would survive, but that Gijon would go down. Hopefully I’m wrong on the Gijon part because I’d love to see them stay up for at least another year. [And by the way, look at Barcelona's stats from that previous league review: 6 games in and 7 goals allowed. Now, 10 games later, just 10 goals allowed. 3 goals in 10 games? Holy mackerel.]

The bottom now has a totally different look to it and one that is, to me, quite surprising. Numancia is probably safe only because everyone below them is even worse, but they won’t get points from Barça in the Camp Nou, so they’ll have to hold their own at home some more (where they’re 4-2-2). If they get 36pts (they have 17 through 16 games, so 34 would be through 32 games and then 2 more for the final 4 games) they’ll be safe, I’m sure, though Zaragoza went down last year with 42 (10 wins and still out — yowch!).

I’ll take a moment here to delve into some statistics that might or might not be useful. Last year, 1053 points of a possible 1140 were earned (meaning there were 87 draws, which results in a net loss of 87 points because each team earns 1 point, or a total of 2 points is awarded evenly to both teams). To put it a different way, 92.37% of all available points were earned in 2007/08. This year so far, 444 points have been earned, or 92.5% of all available points (480 — 160 games have been played). Of those 480 points, the top 6 have earned 40.2% (193pts) of all the possible points, compared to last year’s 36.6% (417 out of 1140). That suggests, to me, that in order to survive, one will have to earn slightly fewer points than in the 07/08 season because the bottom 14 teams are earning, in total, fewer points.

The bottom 3 have earned just 8% of the points this year, while last year they earned a collective 8.5%. Take into consideration that Murcia and Levante were holding down the fort on the bottom by a wide margin (12 points in the end) and you have the signs that someone, somewhere, with an above average point total will descend: Zaragoza was that unlucky devil. Yes, Osasuna has earned only 12 points out of their possible 48, but that’s 25% of their total possible compared to Levante’s dreadful 22.8%. As long as Levante can keep from losing points to the relegation zone teams, they should be fine, even if they don’t dramatically improve their performances against higher table teams. [Just for full disclosure, Osasuna is currently on pace to earn 28.5 points -- that half a point could break either way -- so they're going to either be Levante pt. 2 or they're going to step up and finally do something with their season, even if they ultimately go down in a blaze of mediocrity]

I know I skipped Almeria last time, but I’m here to discuss them this time. Negredo is still scoring goals (8 in 15 matches), but it’s not really doing his squad any good since no one else seems to be doing diddly doo doo (he’s scored exactly half of their 16 total goals). They haven’t allowed that many goals (24), especially if their 5-0 thrubbing by Barça is taken out of the picture, they just can’t seem to score. They drew with RM, and lost by 1 to both Sevilla (0-1) and Villarreal (2-1). But they’re the second victim of Osasuna, having succumbed to the same crazy “sure, feel free to score” malady that Getafe did later. 3-1, Osasuna? You are going down. That’s my final word on them.

The pretty island paradise of Mallorca — or so say all those ads all over Spain — apparently also has a soccer team. I just don’t know what’s become of it. Once the land of Samuel Eto’o, then that of Dani Guiza, RCD Mallorca finds itself in a bit of a pickle. The team blows — 1 point above relegation with the 3rd worst GD in the league at -12 — and they have yet to play the three big boys (Barça, RM, and Villarreal), who they will play in quick succession to start 2009 and end their first half of the season. Despite earning a point against Sevilla, they’re not going to earn any against those three, meaning they’ll be in the relegation zone by the end of January. And I kind of think that’s where they’ll stay, but Almeria is going to beat them to the bottom in the end. They’ll probably survive, but if it comes down to the last 3 weeks for them, they’re done, even if they host 2 of the final 3 (Barça, @RM, Villarreal).

Then there’s the real relegation zone and the real relegation zone surprise, at least for me. Espanyol sits tied with Recreativo Huelva for 18th/19th place with 13 points. Only GD (-11 as opposed to Recre’s league-worst -15) keeps them one place away from safety. Espanyol in the relegation zone? Seriously? I mean, it kind of makes me happy in some sort of twisted ass sadistic way, but it’s still surprising. Perhaps we should have seen it coming, but it still feels just like the Valencia tankjob from last year, but with fewer talented players. Whatever the reasons — horrible offense (14GF) and anemic defense (25GA); they’re actually worse than Osasuna in both categories — they are in the relegation zone. I don’t see it continuing, based simply on the fact that they’ve got more talent than the other 4 teams around them combined (or so my Barcelona-centric mind says). They’ll figure it out for a few weeks and drag themselves to safety, if not by a comfortable margin — sort of like in 05/06, I guess.

Recre is, of course, floundering. They’re the oldest club in Spain, they’ve spent the last 2 years in the top flight (this is their third), and they finally seem to be sinking back into the mediocrity from whence they came. What I mean is, we’re talking about Espanyol without the talent to haul themselves back up. They have the fewest goals scored (11) and are tied third worst in goals allowed (26) in the whole league, which doesn’t bode well for the coming 22 games. They can end this half on a good note by beating Numanica, Racing, and Gijon, which could change my projection, but I think I’m going to bet on them going down.

And finally there was Osasuna. Despite only 2 wins in 16 matches (with 6 draws), they managed to stick around with everyone else, never losing touch. They’re only down 1 point to both Recre and Espanyol, but they do have Sevilla, Barça, and RM coming up before the halfway point. That’s no easy schedule and we’ll have a better idea of how bad they are come the middle of January. I don’t see them staying up, really, but what if that 5-2 win over Getafe was some sort of turnaround signal? After a 1-0 loss at Recre? Nah. They’re going down.

Official Winter Predictions:
League Champ: Barça
2, 3, 4: Villarreal, Real Madrid, Sevilla
5, 6: Valencia, Atleti
18, 19, 20: Almeria, Recre, Osasuna