Copa Preview: Atleti – Barça, Tuesday 2pmEST, GolTV

By: Isaiah | January 5th, 2009

We’re back to the Copa del Rey with the Round of 16 (octavos de final) and that means a trip to Madrid on Three Kings Day/Epiphany (Dia de Los Reyes Magos/Epifanía) to face Atlético Madrid in the first leg. Both teams are going to have to play full on to get any sort of lead for the return leg, especially considering that Barcelona are going in a little light and Atleti are going in off a loss and looking for redemption for that 6-1 thrashing we gave them earlier in the league.

We won’t see that kind of a smackdown, I can guarantee you that, but what will we see from Los Colchoneros? I’m not sure they know who they’re preparing for, since they have Zambrotta listed as one of our defenders. I kid you not. In case you think I made that up, it was posted here, under “Rival Team”. Crazy kids with their crazy Zambrottas running all over the place.

There doesn’t seem to be an official squad list out for Atleti yet, but our fellow Offsider Al has a little something on the game that’s worth checking out. On paper their squad is pretty kickass (and they’ve apparently got no major injuries), with the likes of Agüero, Forlan, Maxi, and Simão — to name just four — capable of playing on most an team in the world.

I do expect Aguirre to get his boys fired up and probably not by cuddling them and telling them to do their best because it’s about fun, not beating your opponent senseless with a baseball bat. And I’m sure Aguirre would be willing to do that were it legal. Dude is crazy, I’m just saying. It’ll be all about revenge and whatnot, so our squad just has to go out and get the job done, which we know how to do.

Our squad list, though has a few interesting holes in it: Pinto, Jorquera, Piqué, Iniesta, Henry, Cáceres, Sylvinho, Bojan, Messi, Alves, Abidal, Keita, Touré Yaya, Busquets, Víctor Sánchez, Pedro. Because there’s no way in hell that I’m going to get a lineup guess correct, I’m going put out what I think should be the lineup. (I think Guardiola reads my previews and purposefully chooses something else — hi Pep! If you really do read this blog, in the next game please signal that you do by waving your hands around nonsensically every now and then while looking at players on the field. Okay thank you.)

So here is my lineup (which is the same one advocated by Kevin in the previous post’s comments): Pinto, Alves, Pique, Caceres, Abidal, Yaya, Busquets, Iniesta, Krkic, Messi, Henry. I like this lineup not because of its attacking firepower (and there’s quite a bit of it), but actually because of its defensive nature. Forcing Atleti wide would do us a ton of good because both Pique and Caceres have the ability to get up in the air and win balls — as do Yaya and Busquets, as well as Abidal — and keep Aguero and Forlan out of the middle where they are most dangerous.

If you remember the 4-2 beating we took last year in the Vicente Calderon, it was because they were allowed time and space in the midfield. That wasn’t pretty and I don’t want to see it again, which is why I’m advocating putting Yaya and Busi in the middle to shut them down. Pique and Caceres aren’t the best duo in the world, but they’ll certainly do so long as there’s proper support in front of them.

So with Puyol out with the flu (Get Well Soon!) and Marquez out with a “slight thigh strain” and possibly a 5th yellow, our defense is going to have to show up with some serious spinal cord and pants baggage. I’m pretty sure they’re up for the challenge, especially Superman Caceres, who will be marking Aguero a lot, I imagine.

With Hleb out with a right ankle problem suffered in the Mallorca game and with Xavi, Eto’o, and Gudjohnsen being rested for the game by Guardiola, maybe Bojan gets the start (finally) and hopefully he can cause Atleti some grief by running at them from the left side. I, like Kevin, would like to see the front three be Bojan on the left, Henry in the middle, and Messi on the right. This way, when Iniesta scoots to the left, as he is wont to do, Bojan will be able to slide into the middle, Henry a bit to the right in the box (back post), and Messi can fill the gap in the middle left by Iniesta, all while having his right flank covered by Alves (whose flank is in turn covered by Busi, while Iniesta’s back is covered by both Abidal and The Yaya). If Iniesta plays more of a “Xavi” role, that is, in the center if a bit on the right, then Bojan can slide a bit to the left, Henry can plow through the middle, and Messi can shoot in on the near post while Alves overlaps Iniesta on the right, Busi pushes up a la Guddy/Keita/Hleb, Abidal pushes a bit up, and Toure hogs the area just in front of the center circle. If he wants to, Bojan can then swing into the middle, allowing Abidal to push up a bit as Busi takes a few steps back to prevent the counter. Yay passing lanes.

It’s theoretically brilliant, of course, but it relies on lots of forward pressure on their back line and midfield (pressing, as they say), as well as timed runs and understanding between the players. Because I think that Bojan and Henry play so well together, it won’t be a problem for Henry to be thrust back into his “natural” position in the center, especially since he and Bojan can swap constantly, with Bojan even ending up on the right sometimes while Messi pushes into the center (near the top of the box or a little deeper) and Henry and Iniesta interchange on the left. Without Eto’o’s runs through the middle it may not work out that great, but without Eto’o, the Atleti defense may be willing to hold their line a bit higher, thus opening some extra through ball spaces for the players to run into after slick passes. Look for Iniesta and Messi to both make runs through the middle at times, attempting to win fouls or simply cut the ball to a stationary player (probably Henry 99% of the time) who will then one time it back into space or continue the pass with a little flick or dummy to another player (Bojan) who is cutting through from the opposite side.

One more thing: Subs. Substitutions are going to be a big factor here. I see Keita coming on for Iniesta at some point because of match fitness, thus depriving us of a true attacking/controlling midfielder, which means that either Busi or Yaya will have to step up into that role. The former is more likely the one to do it. Pedro for Bojan is also probable at some point and could even be a good move if Heny-Messi-Pedro is allowed to occur, with Messi in the middle. Remember, if Atleti are chasing the game, there is no one better in the entire world at shooting through the gaps in a very high defense and scoring that our little chiquito, Messi. So if we’re up 1-0 going into the last 10 minutes, throwing him into the middle to make those ridiculously long runs towards the keeper that seem to always end with a little chip or a sidestep and, of course, a goal. And that’ll be 2-0.

However, it probably won’t be that easy a win. I’m thinking 1-1 and then Messi Magic(TM) for that all-important second away goal that should, really, get us through to the next round. So there you have it, the official prediction: 2-1, goals by Henry and Messi. I may or may not get to watch the game — it’s at 2pm EST, meaning I’ll be at work, but they’re reshowing it at 9pm and if I’m not seeing an apartment, I’ll watch it then, meaning no surfing these here webs for me between 2 and 9pm! oh man…how will I survive?

By the way, if you want to rewatch the Mallorca game, GolTV has it on again at 9pm EST tonight.