

David Silva and Andrei Arshavin: Just Another Big Question
By: Isaiah | July 30th, 2008There has been debate recently about who (if anyone) Barcelona should buy for the vacant left wing spot, a position that should only be considered vacant if one does not believe Andres Iniesta is capable of filling in for a year or more. I personally subscribe to the idea that we have a very loaded squad, but our depth is shallowest at the left wing position, meaning there is room to bring in a good name (not necessarily a big one) to fill in when Iniesta can’t step up or has another role to fill.
The names being bandied about most are Valencia’s David Silva and Zenit St. Petersburg’s Andrei Arshavin. Most readers are familiar with both, especially after this latest European Championship, which put both high on several transfer lists. However, is it possible to quantify their value in the same manner that we were able to discuss Samu and Titi? Because they’re midfielders and, indeed, are different styles of midfielders, the approach must necessarily be at least slightly different from the approach to comparing two very similar strikers.
I will first do a statistical comparison using as much information as possible, noting where the information comes from the ever-reliable Wikipedia or from the quite incomplete Soccernet stats, especially for Arshavin.
David Silva joined Valencia’s first team in 2004, but immediately went on loan to Segunda Division side SD Eibar, where, according to Wikipedia, he appeared in 35 games, scoring 5 (0.143 goals per game). After that he spent a year at Celta de Vigo, appearing in 34 games, scoring 4 goals (0.118 goals per game). After that, he became a regular starter for Valencia, appearing in 70 league games over the last 2 years, scoring 9 times (0.129 goals per game).
Silva has appeared in a total of 93 games for Valencia in all competitions, scoring a total of 14 goals (0.151 goals per game). He seems to do his best work in the Champions League, having appeared in 19 games, scoring 4 goals (0.211 goals per game).
On to Arshavin, whose stats are hard to find, so I’ll stick entirely with Wikipedia for the league stats. Since 2000, Arshavin has appeared in 217 domestic games for Zenit, scoring 47 goals (0.217 goals per game). According to his very incomplete Soccernet stats page, however, he appeared in 27 league games in 06/07 without scoring a single goal. It’s hard to believe that, but there it is.
The UEFA stats are a bit different than the league stats: 18 games, 6 goals (0.333 goals per game), meaning that overall, Arshavin has appeared in 235 games for Zenit, scoring 53 goals (0.226 goals per game). Still, his UEFA stats are much better, suggesting, like it does with Silva, that there is more quality there than is displayed in the league games.
But what of playmaking? It seems to be generally accepted that Arshavin is much more of a classic playmaker than Silva, but I don’t necessarily buy that. Assists are always hard to keep track of and no one seems to have proper stats for Arshavin’s Russian Premier League times (Soccernet claims he got not a single goal or assist in those 27 games in 06/07, but that’s just too much to believe), so it’s impossible to compare the two in that way. I would imagine that Arshavin would have more assists and goals than Silva, but he is also the finished product rather than a 22-year old up-and-comer. Silva is not at the height of his powers, that’s for sure.
It is worth noting here that Silva factored quite heavily in Spain’s championship run this summer. Kevin linked to this graphic in a comment to a previous post, but here it is again. It shows that Silva was an important distributor in the Spanish scheme, receiving the bulk of the passes from Xavi and actually factoring into more plays than any other midfielder besides Xavi. Part of that is time on the field, of course, but it’s also his level of movement through the center that gave him a lot of touches. As has been pointed out, he tends to suck into the middle rather than stay on the outside.
All that said, I was, like most others, very impressed with Arshavin during the Euros. I wonder at his ability to adapt to the Spanish style, but it seems he has the class to do so. He too plays centrally, but many readers of this blog seem to think he can stay wider ala Messi and I would tend to agree with that sentiment. However, he doesn’t have the potential that Silva has. I read him as at the height of his powers and it’s a serious risk that he’ll nose dive in form over the next few years.
Most of you know that I’m not much on splashing the cash around, but either one of these players is well worth €20million (though not more) because of the versatility they would provide to both the midfield in the act of playing and to Guardiola in the tactical sense. I would support bringing in Arshavin more than Silva because of his wider versatility (perceived or otherwise), but they are very similar to me and I would not reject a Silva signing whatsoever.
What is clear is that Barcelona’s Junta Directiva needs to get on this and sign someone before it’s too late. The team has spent a lot of money this summer, yes, but that is a sunk cost and should not preclude us from buying players we actually need. Hleb was the most unnecessary expenditure and it may be that signing that keeps us from getting Arshavin or Silva, which would be unfortunate. That is not, though, to say that Hleb is not talented nor is it to say that a backup for Messi wasn’t needed, but the gaping hole was the left side (and we all knew it before Ronnie left); failure to seal that hole would be the Junta’s major failing this year and could very well spell disaster for both the domestic and European campaigns. Not to put too much emphasis on it or anything.
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Comments
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That’s a tough one, Isaiah. I still prefer Thiago Neves over either Arshavin or Silva, because of his size and trickery. He was on the boil for a while, but now Flu is waiting until after the Olympics, when his price will either skyrocket, or stay roughly where it is, in the 18 million euro range. I think that’s why we aren’t pulling any triggers yet. I know that Neves was a top target for a time, as was Hernanes. This latter was scuttled because of Sao Paulo’s refusal to deal. We suddenly stopped hearing about Neves, which makes me think that something is still working.
Arshavin is worth not a penny more than 20 million, and is actually worth more like the 15 that we offered. But the market is crazy right now. Silva is not moving for less than 25, a price I don’t think we’re willing to pay, nor should we be. In a way, Silva, who would demand first-team duties, would be a more complex addition than Arshavin or Neves, who would both be okay with sharing time with Hleb/Iniesta.
So given my druthers, I’m taking Neves, with Arshavin a distant second, then Silva. As Isaiah pointed out, age is the other complexity. At 27, Arshavin pretty much is what he’s going to be. Silva still has some growth potential, which is why Valencia want to keep him.
Posted from
United States

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What about the celtic Winger who won the man of the match against AC Milan? Maybe he can step up his scoring after playing for barca
Posted from
United States

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I forgot to consider Thiago Neves, actually, but I have never seen him play (that I’m aware of) so I’m not sure how I can rate him effectively. I need to YouTube him and see what comes up.
His goalscoring rate for Flu is 30 in 83 league games according to Wikipedia. That’s 0.361 goals per game, which is fantastically better than either Arshavin or Silva. He’s also 23, and is 5′11. Both Silva and Arshavin are in the 5′7 – 5′8″ range.
Those are pretty good numbers and if he’s what Kevin is suggesting (that is, the real f’ing deal), then we should splash that €18million right about, um now. I’m hoping the Brazilians crash and burn in the Olympics for two reasons now: so Dunga gets the ax and now so that Neves remains cheap.
Posted from
United States

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well most people know where i stand. Arshavin should be our last signing of the summer. Silva’s pros and cons have been discussed enough, but Neves is, in my opinion, more of a risk. he’s never played at a very high level, he’s not particularly fast, good at dragging defenders, or passing; he’s more of a shooter a la Cristiano Ronaldo. in fact, that’s probably the best description of him. a low rent Cristiano Ronaldo. is that really what we’re looking for? but even all that aside, it’s not certain we’ll be able to sign him anyway.
at best, we’ll have to wait 3 weeks to a month to start bidding, and who knows A. what his price will be like, B. if he even wants to come to the club, and C. who else will be interested. and if we DON’T get him, it will be too late to sign either Arshavin or Silva, and we’ll be left with our original problem.
Posted from
United States

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hi all I am new here,thanks to BA hehe
Isaiah I concluded from ur analysis the following:
“Statistical uncertainty, specialy for Arshavine”(increase the risk)
“comparing the 2 players in europe give very close score rating”
But “one of them is on his peak(abd actually wildly driven by the dream of playing abroad) and the other still have 6 years of improvementto reach that peak”
“one of them play on the ice, the other play in spain and already proved he can link well with Xavi and iniesta”
“one of them played more as a center who go wide, and the other play wide and cut inside”
Then I was smiling expecting that no doubt u will make the obvious judgement but…again medea hype make miracles!u still pick Arshavine over Silva, opposing all what you built your analysis on…
for me I will enjoy having iniesta on the wing, Silva if we can afford, or neves as a resonable/young risk…but a player who will start playing serious football(in barca)when he is 28, just because he had couple of good desplays…
hm…i wonder y clubs all arround europe (with all the scouting&Statistical staff) are crawling for Silva, it has to be for a reason.
Arshavine stocks raised when he was considered as a cheap hunting…afterward he turned to become a pop player to amuse public.Posted from
Germany

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Isaiah, there are very complete stats for Arshavin on the Zenit web site here:
http://www.fc-zenit.ru/eng/person.phtml?id=9
I find myself in general agreement with Kxevin, though it is one of those questions where there is no right answer. Another factor in Arshavin’s favour is that he seems very, very much to want to come to the Camp Nou, which is not necessarily the case for either Silva or Thiago Neves. On the other hand, Silva’s experience with Xavi and Iniesta at the Euros should allow him to hit the ground running at full speed if he joins us.
Of the three, Neves has the highest risk/reward ratio, while Arshavin probably has the least; one knows what one is getting with the Russian, the question is how long he can maintain that form. Silva is somewhere between the other two on that particular continuum.
Posted from
Italy

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If we take the risk on Neves, I’ll trust the club, but if it comes down to Arshavin or Silva, I’d take Arshavin any day.
Posted from
Australia

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