December of Truth: Sevilla – Barça, Saturday 4pmEST, GolTV

By: Isaiah | November 28th, 2008

So it’s here. December. One word, one serious f-ing month. Technically the first game of this stretch doesn’t take place during December, but whatever. Sure, there’s Christmas and New Year’s and all that crap coming up, but what could be better than Sevilla-Valencia-Real Madrid-Villarreal? That’s like 4 Christmas presents in a row.

So the first one, Sevilla, is upon us. They’re ranked 5th in the league, tied on points with 4th (Next-Up-Valencia), and have allowed the fewest number of goals so far in La Liga (8). We’re second with 9 in that category, by the way. But who, exactly is Sevilla? Because we have both Keita and Dani Alves, they are necessarily quite different than they were last year.

Twelve games into the season, they are 7W-3D-2L. Both of their losses (Malaga 0-1, @Valladolid 3-2) came consecutively a month ago on October 26 and November 2. Freddy Kanoute played in neither of those games, but is back and healthy, which means Sevilla is more dangerous than they were. He has 4 goals in 9 appearances, but he also contributes heavily in winning 50/50 balls and passing to other players.

By losing Keita and Alves, Sevilla lost only 6 out of their 75 goals scored (8%), so they aren’t being hurt by that, but Alves is credited by Soccernet with 14 assists for last year, which is a substantial loss (Keita is credited with 3). Again, Keita did a lot of little things in the midfield and Alves constantly keeps your opponents wingbacks honest. Still, Sevilla is faring fairly well without them thanks to their badass defensive stats. 8 goals allowed in 12 games? That puts them on pace to allow 26 goals (and score 57), which is phenomenal. Just as a contrast, we are on pace to allow 29 and score 118. I’m assuming that neither Sevilla nor Barcelona will reach those lofty heights (26 and 118) thanks to this game coming up. Something has to give, right?

Sevilla’s 18 goals are fairly evenly spread out across their strike force (Kanoute 4; Fabiano and Chevanton 3; Maresca, Renato, and Adriano 2; Jesus Navas and Tom de Mul 1), which suggests that they’re potent with or without particular players. I believe that Navas is missing for this game through suspension after picking up his 5th yellow card of the season against Valencia. Here’s their squad list for this game: Palop, Javi Varas, Fernando Navarro, Mosquera, Konko, Squillaci, Escudé, David Prieto, Adriano, Dragutinovic, Fazio, Duscher, Romaric, Renato, Maresca, Capel, De Mul, Kanouté, Luis Fabiano.

Note that Chevanton is missing and that I haven’t talked about Diego Capel yet. Well, now I have. Little Diego, who gave us quite a bit of trouble last year, hasn’t had the greatest year (8 appearances, 0 goals, 1 assist) and perhaps we can keep it that way. I’m assuming he won’t start.

Now to Barcelona. Our squad list is out: Valdés, Pinto, Henry, Márquez, Xavi, Piqué, Puyol, Cáceres, Sylvinho, Bojan, Eto’o, Messi, Hleb, Alves, Keita, Gudjohnsen, Touré, Busquets.

Note the return of Puyol and Yaya, the continued inclusion of Messi, and the inclusion of both our ex-Sevillistas. Dani Alves said it’s going to be great returning to the Sanchez Pizjuan and I hope that he shows up, scores a goal, and feeds in a few more. Imagine if Keita got a third goal in as many games, especially off a Keita cross. That would be cruel on Sevilla, to be honest, but I would be cheering.

Here’s the starting lineup that you know Guardiola will decide on: Valdés, Alves, Márquez, Piqué, Puyol, Touré, Xavi, Keita, Henry, Eto’o, Messi

Don’t even try to tell me that Guardiola would consider a different lineup. I’m always right with these things! (if anyone cares to count up, I’m going with 3% success rate, with a 3% margin of error) So we’re returning to the deadly lineup (minus Iniesta, which means maybe Hleb starts instead of Keita, but I don’t want that) and perhaps to our free-scoring ways, though I doubt that. Sevilla is too good to expect a 3-0 or 4-0 romp. Not going to happen. Let’s get that through our heads. Not that we’re going to be mopped — that won’t happen either — but we’re going to have 4 tough league games in a row. We need to start out with 3 points here (especially since Getafe-Real Madrid is a tricky bastard of a game for the merengues, thanks to its semi-derby status and Getafe’s self-confidence) in order to make sure we don’t have a dip in self-confidence.

We can do this, we can score. We know that. So let’s do it. Guardiola, in his press conference, asked for more attacking from his players — which might suggest Hleb instead of Keita, but I think you get more forward movement from Keita — though he’s too smart to say we’re going to win. I respect that, but I don’t necessarily believe it.

Official Prediction: 2-1, Barcelona. Goals by Eto’o and Toure. That’s right, my man in the middle grabs a goal. Woohoo! Or maybe it’ll be Keita. We’ll have to wait and see, eh?

As always, if you’re looking for a place to watch this game, please see our List of Establishments that show FC Barcelona.