Preview: Almería – Barça, Sunday 4pmEST, GolTV

By: Isaiah | March 13th, 2009

We’ve had our say about the CL, we’ve seen Lyon come and go, and now we’re back to La Liga, to our attempt at the domestic double (hell, we’re in the finals and we just slobberknockered our upcoming opponents, we can start to talk about that, right?). We face plucky Almería, known to most just for having Álvaro Negredo. By the way, I have never once pronounced Almería correctly, for some reason, so every time you see it written, think of it being pronounced AL-meria.

This match comes during a good run for us and we beat the socks off of this team the first time out, 5-0, but also at a tricky moment. Yes, we’ve scored 7 in the last 2 games (1 league, 1 CL) and we’re heading into a week where we only have 2 games (@Almería on Sunday then home against Málaga on Sunday March 21), but we’re going to be tired after playing Lyon on Wednesday and that could be cause for concern with a static backline. We have no one to rotate in for Márquez and Piqué save Cáceres — all of who have accents in their names, gah, hard to type — so we might be looking at a double DM kind of game (Busi and The Yaya). However, I will argue that we should continue as we were, but with Cáceres on the left wing instead of Sylvinho, whose legs must be about to fall off. Alves is as fresh as the first spring daisy, so he can play again. I will also argue against using The Yaya — what!? — and in favor of using Gudjohnsen — double what!? — while also considering keeping Iniesta on the bench — gah!

But first, ~~ALmeria~~ Almería: this is a team that arrives with a coach we’ve never been up against before in Hugo Freakin’ Sánchez. Now, I’ve never been a big fan of his, especially during his time at the head of Mexico’s national team. I never thought he was up to the job tactically and I think the same goes for Almería, despite some measure of success. They are 4W-3D-3L (17GF, 16GA), which is very, very middle-of-the-road. However, if you look at their total season stats, 8W-7D-11L (33GF, 41GA), you will note a slight increase in form. Before Hugo came around, they had earned only 16 points and they’ve already earned 15 under their new boss. Whereas they were earning 33% of the possible points before, they’re now earning 50%.

A Pythagorean win expectation calculation — remember that’s GF^2/(GF^2 + GA^2) — suggests that, with 33 goals for and 41 goals against, Almería should have earned 0.43% fewer points than they actually have (they’ve earned 39.74% of available points, which is, for the mathematically disinclined, 31 of 78). Since Hugo joined, their Pythagorean win rate should be 53.03%, when their actual rate is 50%. So they’re slightly under-performing in a sad-sack kind of way (basically they should have drawn one of the games they lost and earned 16 points, which is 53.33%).

They’re not a titanic offense, but Negredo has been pouring them in, really. He’s got 16 so far this year and 8 since Hugo took over. His total of 16 is almost half of Almería’s total (33). Of the 17 goals scored under Hugo, 8 of them have come from Negredo (2 penalties) and 6 have come from Kalu Uche. Not only is 6 goals in 10 games impressive, it’s probably important to note that Uche now has 6 goals on the season. 0 in 7 prior appearances and suddenly 6 in 10. I’m not entirely sure what it was that Hugo changed (if anything), but he’s certainly made Negredo and Uche dangerous. Perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise, what with Hugo having made Nery Castillo into a brilliant striker and having himself been Pichichi 5 times. Dude was money in front of goal when he played for both Atleti and RM, so he can probably teach a couple of players how to be better strikers.

Still, the lack of defense has to worry them. 16 goals in 10 games isn’t a great number, really. Barça have allowed only 8 more in the whole year. And 4 of those came against a supercharged Atleti, a team Almería won’t face until the last day of the season. If Barça can strangle their midfield, it will be that much easier for the defense to deal with Negredo and Uche. Basically, the idea is to do to Almería what we did to Lyon, but, I think, with a bit more conservative approach. That’s why I’m advocating the following lineup:

Valdes, Alves, Márquez, Piqué, Cáceres, Busi, Keita, Xavi, Henry, Eto’o, Messi

While that’s only 3 changes from the midweek game, I think that a slightly more defensive outlook on things, with Keita and Busi in the middle rather than The Yaya and Iniesta, would stifle their creativity. The argument could also be made that Iniesta’s presence would solidify our possession game where Keita’s would not, but I think that Iniesta deserves a rest for the first 70 minutes or so, assuming things aren’t going disastrously. I know that Xavi needs a rest even more than Iniesta, but Xavi is our midfield maestro in a way that Iniesta is not, so leave him on the field and, perhaps, if we’re up 3-0 or something ridiculous like that, we can sub him out in favor of Iniesta or Hleb. His abilities, however, are such that even in the 94th minute against whack-anything-that-moves Lyon he can still deliver a killer ball to Keita. The only things I want out of Keita is pressing defense and long-range shooting. I think Busi can control the midfield well enough while Márquez and Piqué cover the center. Alves will have to get back on defense, of course, but if he plays like he did against Lyon, we’ll be fine.*

Giving Cáceres some reps while resting Sylvinho is a solid plan as well, I think, though you could be forgiven for trying to get another game out of Old Man Time. He was decent to good against Lyon, but allowed too many runners by him, including their second goal. So give him a rest, put in the young gun who needs to get his legs under him again after that red card against Mallorca. I’d like to start Bojan as well, but for who? If we can get a lead going into the final half hour, throw him on for Henry or Messi and let him go to town on them. He was so active and nearly scored against Lyon, so I think that he can net one against Almería.

Without further ado, here’s my official prediction: 3-1, Barça. Goals by Eto’o, Messi, and Bojan (sub); their goal by Uche. Negredo gets diddly doo doo.

Where to Watch!

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*Yup, that’s me using my position as Commander in Blog to repeat my point that Alves was very good against Lyon. Very good.