Preview: Atleti – Barça, Sunday 1pmEST GolTV

By: Isaiah | February 27th, 2009

Another day, another game, it seems. My preview-producing fingers have been quite busy this season, as we go from league to cup to Champions League and back to regular domestic league with a brutal quickness that suggests, were my fingers players, that fatigue would rapidly take over. But, fortunately for all involved, my fingers are merely instruments of preview creation and don’t have to make long runs into the box to collect whipped crosses from Dani Alves.

What’s even more fortunate for you than my fingers not being in the starting lineup at the Calderon, dear cule, is that Iniesta could very possibly be back with the team. He has begun training with the squad again and even though I don’t expect him to take part, he might be able to sub on. We’ll find out when the squad list is released tomorrow, but he was seen training with the full squad this morning, so hopefully he’ll be available. Of course, if it means he’s not 100% healthy, then he should sit out.

Gabi Milito is also back and 100% fit, apparently. So that’s rocknroll or at least some form of jazz. I don’t think we’ll see him start against Atleti, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him subbed on at some point late in the 2nd in order to get him some match time and, perhaps, prepare him for a start against Mallorca in the Copa. Regardless, he’s back and we have another CB to swap in and out, which can’t be a bad thing.

But on to Atleti, our opponents this week.

24 games in, 14 to go. 72 possible points gone, 42 to go. Atleti sit in 7th place, 3 points below Malaga and Valencia, who are battling it out for UEFA and CL spots. Atleti is also tied with Depor in terms of points. They, Atleti, have 36 points (50% of those possible) out of their first 24 games with an overall record of 10W-6D-8L (48GF, 35GA). That’s 1.50pts per game, with 2.00GF and 1.46GA over average. They’ve scored the 3rd most number of overall goals in the league (behind only Barça and RM) but have allowed the 9th most (35, tied with Valencia and Malaga, oddly enough). Perhaps an interesting anecdote is that had Atleti drawn 0-0 with Barça in the Camp Nou, they would have the 3rd best defensive record in the league behind only Barça and Racing. But, alas, they were spanked.

However, let’s compare home and away stats.
PPG = pts per game; GFpG = GF per game; GApG = GA per game

Atleti home: 6W-1D-4L (25GF, 11GA); 1.75PPG, 2.27GFpG, 1.00GApG
Barça away: 9W-2D-1L (27GF, 10GA); 2.55PPG, 2.45GFpG, 0.91GApG

Statistically, Atleti is one of the better home teams, with only 3 teams having scored more goals and only 2 teams having allowed fewer. It’s just that in both cases, Barça is one of those teams. However, you can never underestimate them simply because of statistics. They’re going to looking to get back on their feet in La Liga, having won just once in their last 8 — at Recre Huelva 0-3 in the first match under Abel Resino. Speaking of which, their current league record under Resino is 1-1-1. 4 points from 3 matches isn’t going to make the rojiblanco faithful.

According to wikipedia, that intrepid source of factual journalism, Resino loves to play his back line very high, to pressure the other team’s midfield. And gain an attacking advantage. That, to me, sounds like suicide against a quick and agile front line being provided for by one Xavi Hernandez Creus. I hear that guy can pass. And I hear that Barcelona has some quick forwards. However, it does suggest that Atleti might be particularly well-suited to maintaining the high pressure that is necessary to get Barcelona of kilter. Certainly Atleti has the talent, but they’ve been beaten by Barcelona 3 times already this year (once in the league, twice in the Copa) and I find it somewhat hard to imagine that they are in better shape than we are, having also played a tough CL game on Tuesday.

One reason that Resino might be having trouble getting things clicking at the Calderon (where, to be fair, he’s only had one game, a 1-1 draw against Getafe) is that he’s apparently warring with Kun Aguero, who doesn’t like something or other and Resino resents something else or something other or blah blah. Yeah, tabloids and their whole OMG we’re going to print nonsense thing, once again. But if there really is something going on in the locker room between Resino, Aguero, and other players, it could tear that side apart and make them function like a group starving wolverines around a carcass. Even though that analogy made no sense whatsoever, I’m leaving it there because it created one hell of a mental image for me. If the wheels come off their bus, I’d be quite happy for it to be against us so that we trot out 3-0 winners or something to that effect. I doubt it will happen, but the perennial choke-fest that is Atleti might as well come through for us now, eh?

As for Barcelona’s lineup against what will probably be a 4-5-1, I think there are a couple of things we can do to mix it up: Valdes, Alves, Puyol, Pique, Caceres, Yaya, Xavi, Hleb, Henry, Eto’o, Messi. That may not look like mixing it up, but I’m saying put Hleb in the Iniesta spot, and let him at least retain possession in a way that Keita was not capable of during the Lyon game. We’ll probably see Guddy in there instead of Hleb, and I can’t really blame Guardiola for that since I’ve called for Hleb’s head many a time, but I think we put Alex out there with a short leash and see what he can do for us. If Iniesta is healthy enough to play 90 minutes, I say we keep him on the bench until about the 60th, just to be safe, and then let him lose in place of Henry or Hleb (whoever is doing worse — imagine which one I think that will be…if you guess right, you win a cookie*) to see if we can’t grab another goal in the final 30. If Iniesta is not quite healthy enough to play a match — and I suspect he isn’t — then we can rotate Guddy into that deep-lying faux playmaker half-striker, half DM, 1/3 winger, 1/4 mathematician role that he’s, well, not exactly perfected, but had decent moments in.

Or, if things are going badly, which they won’t, but if they don’t (and they won’t), we can always throw on Bojan for Hleb and get some pizazz going on one of the wings. Regardless, we’re going to have to fight for this one and, if the Lyon game is any indication, the team is beginning to understand then fight-from-the-first-whistle mentality needed in this stretch of the year. If you let up for one minute, you’re doomed. Doomed, I say. If things are going exceedingly well, which they will, then we can throw on Busi instead of Hleb (if Hleb is having a magnificent game, then you can take Henry and shift Hleb up, I guess, I mean maybe) to shore up the defense a little bit and shut down any counters they might be able to bring against us.

The third sub is Gabi Milito on for…someone. Pique, probably, just cause the guy needs a rest and we can’t take Puyol out. Though maybe for Caceres and Puyol can swing over to the left to ~~kill~~ defend whoever is on their right wing at the moment (Aguero?). Until then, Caceres can certainly do an effective job against Aguero and Pique and Puyol can stop Forlan from doing any damage. Boom. Game over. I’m feeling more confident now than when I started this preview. Maybe that’s what these previews are really for.

Official prediction: 3-1 Baaaarcelona. Hot damn. Goals by Messi, Eto’o, and Henry. Let’s do it!

And, as always, check out the Where to Watch page if you need to find somewhere in your locale to watch the boys in blaugrana. I personally will be in Philly for this one and will try to post my viewing location to the blog in the match comments post that I hope to be able to put up on Sunday morning. Feel free to post the squad lineups and the starting lineups here, of course.

If you can only stream the game, check out rojadirecta.com to get your viewership on.

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*not really