Preview: Barça – Espanyol; Saturday 2pmEST GolTV

By: Isaiah | February 20th, 2009

The fourth — and last — Barcelona derby of the season is upon us. Espanyol make the arduous trek across town to the Camp Nou to face off against Messi and his friends in a battle of first against worst. Barcelona are, of course, 10 points up in the league with 60 points while Espanyol are in 20th with 18 points. When the teams first met, at Montjuic, the teams both had 7 points. Since then, however, it’s been two very divergent routes. Check out the official site’s discussion of it.

That’s not to say that this won’t be a tough game because, frankly, it will be. Espanyol always show up for matches against us and we tend to play down to them a bit. Hopefully tomorrow is different (I’ll give you the real reason to think so in a bit — it’s not the outrageous statistical differences). For now, though, it’s a battle of the minds between Guardiola and Pochettino, the two coaches. Poche is the youngest coach in the league at 36, Guardiola the third-youngest at 38. Whereas Pep had the luxury of taking control of a high-performance sports car that just needed a bit of engine work, Poche has taken over a side that was drifting towards the bottom — perhaps free-falling that way would be a better description — and hasn’t been able to muster much of a turnaround. They’ve drawn a couple of times, but have failed to win under Poche.

The stats (ppg: points per game; gpg: goals per game; gapg: goals allowed per game)
Barça overall: 19W-3D-1L (70GF, 18GA), 2.61ppg, 3.04gpg, 0.78gapg
Espanyol overall: 3W-9D-11L (20GF, 37GA), 0.78ppg, 0.87gpg, 1.61gapg

Barça home: 10W-2D-0L (43GF, 8GA), 2.67ppg, 3.58gpg, 0.67gapg
Espanyol away: 1W-5D-6L (8GA, 21GF), 0.67ppg, 0.67gpg, 1.75gapg

Eto’o has scored 3 more goals than Espanyol as a team, just to put their goalscoring capabilities into perspective. In fact, Eto’o has scored more than Recre and Espanyol and the same number of goals as Mallorca and Osasuna. Wow.

Espanyol’s squad list is as follows: Kameni, Cristian, Javi Ruiz, David García, Lacruz, S. Sánchez, Beranger, Nico Pareja, Torrejón, Jarque, Román, De la Peña, Ángel, Moisés, Callejón, Luis García, Nené, Coro, Tamudo, Iván Alonso, and Juanjo.

Raul Tamudo, Sergio Sanchez, and Luis Garcia are all tied with 3 goals apiece to lead Espanyol and all 3 are available for the match. Jarque has 11 yellow cards to his name, so expect him to pick up at least one more this time around as well. Sorta like last time, when you knew it was coming. One thing, though, is that if Mando over at the Espanyol Offside is right, the players are the ones screwing themselves by subtle mutiny in the locker room. Interesting, if only because I hope that it means they play badly against us.

14 matches since their last win and 11 away matches since their last away win; not good stats for them. They’re coming off an 0-2 loss to Sevilla and before that, three consecutive 1-1 draws, and before that, losses and draws all the way back to their 1-0 defeat of Osasuna on November 2. Statistically speaking, when you are terrible and you go up against the best offense and defense in the league, well, to put it scientifically, you’re screwed.

Guardiola has already stated that he’s taking this match very seriously and that he expects to start Messi for it. And that, presumably, signals that this is going to be a long couple of weeks for our regular starters, especially with Iniesta out injured for another week and a half. How do we approach a game against the least prolific offense in La Liga? I suggest by playing hard, high pressure and keeping them off the ball with a machine called The Yaya. Put him in the middle and watch him destroy. He hasn’t played much of late, so let’s see what he can do after a week’s rest and what I hope was several deer carcasses tossed into whatever cage they have built that he allows them to hold him in. For the good of the scared children, of course. Also, after a week of rest, do you think that Dani Alves will be able to break the sound barrier on a run? I’m going with yes.

I would like to see the following lineup: Valdes, Alves, Puyol, Pique, Abidal, The Yaya, Xavi, Keita, Henry, Eto’o, Messi. I know that this lineup is a bit stronger than some would like, especially with Lyon on Tuesday, but I think that we can expect 60 minutes of out most of these players and 90 out of players like Keita. I would like to see Bojan out there fairly early, especially if we’re winning, but starting him is probably not a good idea because of how physical the game is going to be. He would just get bumped off the ball, shoved, tripped, and otherwise abused, all of which would get him frustrated. But if he comes off the bench, the defenders will have been worn down by the triple threat of our attack.

Were Iniesta available, by the way, I would advocate him starting and Henry replacing him in the 60th or 65th, but instead, we’re left with subbing on Bojan for the left, Hleb for the right, and Busi in the middle for Xavi. That is, in effect, going to a 4-4-2, with Eto’o and Bojan up front — at least in my mind it is because Hleb steps back on the right and plays more defensively/distributively, while The Yaya and Busi clean up the middle and Keita runs around the left like a crazy man. That does reduce our width on the left, but it also gives us a much great vertical threat, shuts down their engine room, and gives Hleb a chance to show that he can, actually, distribute the ball.

If we shut them down in the middle, it takes away a lot of their counterattacking, which is what could kill us, but with Puyol in the middle to marshal the forces, we’ll have a very solid 3 wide back line with Alves charging up and down to make wild challenges at the last moment, if necessary. The defensive line also allows us to push Puyol, if he’s 100% healthy, through 2 games with solid defenders at his side. Pique tomorrow and Marquez against Lyon. Then we shift gears for Atleti and put in Caceres and Pique or Marquez and Caceres.

I realize that sacrificing Messi after the 60th minute in favor of Hleb could destroy our attack and so I’d like to say that Messi stays on until we are up by 2 goals. That’s all there is to that, despite the fatigue and injury potential involved. We need to win this game, not because dropping points to Madrid would be so horrible, but because it’s against Espanyol and despite the fact that Guardiola claims he wants them to stay up, I do not. I want them to have the prettiest new stadium in the Segunda. Sorry, it’s just that way. Ask any perico what he or she would give to see Barça descend and I’m sure you’d get a list of everything they own and a lot of things they don’t (such as my right leg). So the dislike, I’m sure, is mutual.

Another point is the “Why no Pedro?” question. I can’t really answer that except to shrug and say “In Pep We Trust,” but it is conspicuous that he hasn’t played very much this year. In his one start (the 1-1 draw with Racing) he got a 6 from Kevin. Dude has played a part in 3 games, which I’m not sure is particularly fair given how hard he works in the games and given that he scored a few times in preseason. If the argument is that Hleb needs to be incorporated into the squad more so that he can prove himself, then the same argument must be made for Pedro. Even if he is friends with strange people. Perhaps in the Mallorca match?

But here’s what you have all been waiting for, the official prediction: 5-2. Yup, that’s right. A manita from our boys. Why so confident, you ask? Well, on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I had a dream in which the final score was 5-2. All this from the dream: Alves scores from a free kick, Puyol scores twice and wins a penalty that is converted, and I guess someone else scored the 5th. But 5-2. You heard it here first.

And, as always, the ever-growing Where to Watch page will direct you to the nearest bar showing your beloved cules in action. Enjoy the ones already listed or suggest your own.