Preview: Barça – Málaga, Saturday 3pmEST (GolTV)

By: Isaiah | October 31st, 2008

Welcome to the weekend, everyone. It’s Málaga for us this time around, further down the coast, well beyond rainy Benidorm.* Málaga is not a side to be discounted, having been on an upward swing for quite a while (4 league wins in a row), but, as always, there’s a lot more to them than a winning streak.

Their complete record is 4W-1D-3L (13pts, 9GF 9GA). Because they’re on a 4-game winning streak**, simple math tells us they started off the year 0W-1D-3L. It’s important to note, of course, who they lost to: @Atletico, @Almeria, Valencia; they drew 0-0 with Bilbao.

4 of their goals against were in their opening match at the Calderon; since they’ve only allowed 5. 4 of their goals for were in their second win, at Recreativo Huelva. In fact, when Málaga scores, they win. 100% of the time in our 8 game sample. In their first 4 games, they allowed 7 goals and scored 0. In their next 4 games they allowed 2 goals and scored 9. That’s some turnaround, right?

Their average goals allowed is 1.13. Compare that to Barcelona’s 0.88 if you’d like.
Their average goals scored is also 1.13. Compare that to Barcelona’s 3.

Here are the Home and Away stats for Málaga and Barça:
Málaga: 2W-1D-1L; 4GF, 4GA
Barça: 3W-0-1L; 9GF, 3GA

Málaga has 4 players tied with 2 goals (Duda, Nabil Baha, Adrián, and Eliseu) while Barcelona’s leading scorer is Samuel Eto’o with 9 — by chance the same amount as the entirety of Málaga’s squad in league play. For those of you who are interested in these sorts of things (and, surprisingly, I am not), Barcelona has an all-time record of 10W-10D-7L at Málaga’s Estadio La Rosaleda. I put no stock in all-time records, if only because players today don’t under-preform at particular places simply because their predecessors did.

Now, for more Barça-centric info:

The squad list is out, meaning we can look at it and wonder who will be on the field: Valdés, Henry, Márquez, Xavi, Piqué, Iniesta, Puyol, Cáceres, Sylvinho, Bojan, Eto’o, Messi, Hleb, Alves, Touré, Pinto, Sergio Busquets, Víctor Sánchez

Those missing: Pedro, Guddie, Milito, Abidal, Keita

One would normally assume that meant Sylvinho starts on the left, but we’re talking Pep Guardiola here, so who knows. Maybe it’ll be Bojan playing left back slash right forward! Argh! Can you tell I’m starting to get neurotic concerning the lineup predictions part of the preview? With a game against Basel on Tuesday, you’d think Guardiola would rest some of the star players yet again, but that is probably not how he’s thinking of it after the 5-0 crush we put on them before. So I’ll go ahead and say that we should be expecting the toughest lineup possible against a side going full-tilt in the league, even if it is before a CL match that can confirm our place in the second round.

The lineup, starting with the only position I’ve gotten correct every time: Valdés, Alves, Puyol, Márquez, Sylvinho, Touré, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Eto’o, Henry

There’s no reason to think I’ll get this right, of course, so here’s my Guardiola-ed lineup: Valdés. Alves, Puyol, Pique, Caceres, Touré, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Eto’o.

We’ll see which one is closer to the truth. Either way, I think we win. Why? Because we’re the better team. Málaga maybe in the UEFA Cup spot and their only losses may be against other top half of the table clubs (including the very top), but I think we’re going to add another loss there simply because of the roll we’re on. At some point our roll will end, but the boys seem focused on breaking every team they face in half over their proverbial WWE knees.

Official prediction: 3-1, goals by Eto’o, Messi, Xavi

The game will be broadcast on GolTV at 3pm Eastern Time tomorrow (Saturday). I’ll probably not be able to catch this one, but maybe I will. Here’s a list of places you can watch our beloved blaugrana: Where to Watch. Please add to this list if you can by emailing me or posting it in the comments.

I’ll be back with more on Thursday or so — sorry, but Tuesday is Election Day here and I have no time for the beautiful game when it comes down to the future of the free world. How’s that for American over-valuation of self? So, perhaps a preview on Monday, but perhaps not. If not, here it is: Barcelona beats the remaining shreds of pants off Basel, 3-0.

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*because it rains constantly in Benidorm, of course — my polling sample is gigantic.

**In the league. They just drew at home with Mallorca 1-1 in the Copa del Rey.