Samuel Eto’o and the Value of Statistics

By: Isaiah | July 28th, 2008

[Updated version] The debate over Samu rages back and forth in both Barcelona and on this blog. I can’t say with any amount of certainty who is on what side in the Junta Directiva, but it seems fairly clear that there are several Samu detractors high up in the club and they are determined to get rid of the Cameroonian striker. I won’t bore you with conspiracy theories about who wants him out or why (he walked in on Laporta and Txiki slobbering over Youtube videos of Cronaldo!), but I will gladly bore you with a statistical analysis of Eto’o’s time so far in La Ciudad Condal.

Because it seems to be the major comparison being made by all of us (especially by Kevin and me in our various posts and comments), I’m going to go ahead and do a head-to-head with Samu and Thierry Henry, to see whether or not there can’t be some final resolution concerning the value of these two assets (and at this point one must consider them as assets rather than anything else since I’m attempting to look at this from a purely mathematical/statistical perspective; later I’ll bring in the human element, don’t worry).

First, Samu:

According to Soccernet, Eto’o has played in 142 games for Barcelona since joining at the beginning of the 2004/05 season. During that time he has scored 91 goals. That is, overall, a scoring rate of 0.641 goals per game.

Let’s break it down further, though, into individual competitions.

La Liga: 109 games, 77 goals (0.706 goals per game)
Champions League: 28 games, 12 goals (0.429 goals per game)
Copa del Rey: 4 games, 2 goals (0.500 goals per game)
UEFA Super Cup: 1 game, 0 goals (you can guess the goals per game rate, right?)

Now, let’s break it down by year and by compeition, to see whether or not the injuries have slowed his strike rate or not.

League:
04/05 – 37 games, 24 goals (0.649 goals per game)
05/06 – 35 games, 26 goals (0.743 goals per game)
06/07 – 19 games, 11 goals (0.579 goals per game)
07/08 – 18 games, 16 goals (0.889 goals per game)

With a slight dip in 06/07, Samu’s goal scoring rate has risen steadily, despite his injuries. It would be folly, however, to assume that he’ll score a goal per game now, especially since he hasn’t had a full season in which to either prove his extraordinary worth or make his flaws truly visible. That is, however, just the league. What of the Champions League, where he is accused of failing to find the back of the net (especially against English opposition)?

CL:
04/05 – 7 games, 4 goals (0.571 goals per game)
05/06 – 11 games, 6 goals (0.545 goals per game)
06/07 – 3 games, 1 goal (0.333 goals per game)
07/08 – 7 games, 1 goal (0.143 goals per game)

Obviously there is a marked decline in Samu’s goalscoring in European competition once he began to have injury problems. It’s hard to say whether the lack of goals is purely related to the injuries and when he made his returns to the game (usually in tough situations against much stronger competition than appears in the league, such as Liverpool in the quarters or ManU in the semis) or if it’s purely based on his inability to get the better of well-formed English defenses. My guess is that it’s a combination of the two, but I’ll explain more of that later, after the next round of stats.

It’s on to Thierry Henry, then. What has he contributed over the last several seasons? I’m going to start with the same amount of time (03/04 to 06/07) in order to avoid any of the debates about whether or not switching teams and positions could have hindered or helped Henry’s stats. Over the course of those 4 years, “TH14″ played in a total of 165 games for Arsenal, scoring 114 goals (0.691 goals per game).

Just like with Eto’o, let’s break it down competition-by-competition:

EPL: 118 games, 92 goals (0.780 goals per game)
Champions League: 36 games, 16 goals (0.444 goals per game)
FA Cup: 7 games, 4 goals (0.571 goals per game)
FA Community Shield: 3 games, 1 goal (0.333 goals per game)
Carling Cup: 1 game, 1 goal (1.00 goals per game, duh)

Now a year-by-year comparison with the league and CL:

EPL:
03/04 – 37 games, 30 goals (0.811 goals per game)
04/05 – 32 games, 25 goals (0.781 goals per game)
05/06 – 32 games, 27 goals (0.844 goals per game)
06/07 – 17 games, 10 goals (0.588 goals per game)

Obviously Henry was a major force in the EPL for several years, his powers waning a bit with his injuries during his final year there, but it’s hard to argue with the sustained 0.780+ goals per game rate, isn’t it? Only one of Samu’s years exceeded that rate (07/08 at 0.889 goals per game, which actually exceeds anything rate Henry ever scored at in the Prem) while only one of Henry’s failed to do so (06/07 at 0.588 goals per game).

CL:
03/04 – 10 games, 5 goals (0.500 goals per game)
04/05 – 8 games, 5 goals (0.625 goals per game)
05/06 – 11 games, 5 goals (0.455 goals per game)
06/07 – 7 games, 1 goal (0.143 goals per game)

There is, just like with Eto’o, a drop in performance in the CL in the last year of Henry’s time with Arsenal. It is, in fact, the exact performance rate. Let’s compare overall strike rates between Eto’o and Henry:

League: Henry holds the edge here at 0.780 compared to 0.706 (if you were to adjust Eto’o’s appearance numbers upwards to meet those of Henry — that is, 118 appearances in 4 years — you would get 118 games, 83 goals. That makes the difference 9 goals over a 4 year period when adjusted. The actual difference is 77 for Eto’o, 92 for Henry.

CL: Henry again holds an advantage in European competition, but not by any convincing margin (0.444 compared to 0.429). Again, if you adjust the number of games Eto’o appeared in from 28 to 36, you get 15 goals. That’s a difference of 1 goal between himself and Henry. The actual difference was 4 goals (12 in 28 for Eto’o compared to 16 in 36 for Henry).

In domestic tournaments (eg Copa del Rey), both tend towards a goal every two games (0.500 goals per game) and so are a virtual statistical tie. If Eto’o’s appearances are upped to meet Henry’s (that is, 11 games instead of 4) his numbers are 11 games, 5.5 goals rather than Henry’s 11 games, 6 goals. If you discount the Carling Cup — a 2-1 victory over Wigan that still resulted in Arsenal being bounced on away goals — there’s an exact statistical tie at 10 games, 5 goals each.

[Updated paragraph] Just one more bit of statistical fun: Over his whole Arsenal career, Thierry Henry appeared in 369 games, scoring 230 goals. That’s 0.623 goals per game. Eto’o’s Barcelona career has garnered him ~~the aforementioned 0.706 goals per game~~ 0.641 goals per game. The above analysis does not take into account the first few years of Henry’s Arsenal career because they do not accurately reflect the current form Henry is capable of. Eto’o is a distinct disadvantage in these stats because Henry had his 3 of his 4 best years at Arsenal precisely in the 4 years analyzed. Only the 03/04 season was better for goals per game analysis from Henry’s point-of-view (25 games, 24 games is a maddening 0.960 goals per game!).

Overall, Henry’s performances in the EPL suggest he is capable of being a better striker than Eto’o. However, Eto’o has proven his worth time and again as a striker against Spanish teams. It might be a smart play on Pep’s part to split time between his slightly ailing strikers and give Henry the bulk of the starts against English teams in the CL while smaller, slower teams will be cut to shreds by Eto’o. The fluidity of the Spanish game (and I would argue the brilliance of it) plays more into Eto’o’s hands than Henry’s, but there is true talent on both sides of this question. Thus, we must never forget that both are consummate professionals in how they approach fitness and the game itself.

Henry’s gift is his ability to integrate with the rest of the squad, while Eto’o’s mouth often gets him into trouble. If one ignores Eto’o, he becomes a fantastic striker, bent on proving you a fool for forgetting about him, but if you allow him to get under your skin, like so many defenders, he will punish your backlash severely. Henry doesn’t seem to have that personality, which is nice from a club’s perspective, but Eto’o is a crowd favorite for a reason: he has on-the-field charisma that, when properly corralled, excites the whole team. Eto’o is never afraid of playing second fiddle so long as he gets the proper credit when the ball goes into the net off his foot, but Henry may not be capable of watching Messi take the reins and drive the team upwards in both the domestic and continental competitions.

Still, I would like to see both of them stay because if, as many have said, Eto’o will bring us La Liga and Henry will bring us the CL, it’s well worth their wages and the lack of a transfer fee in the future to bring back silverware. If we want Benzema, we should get Benzema and put him through the paces, growing him into a striker that will take over for Eto’o when/if he moves on after his contract is done, but giving up Eto’o for an unproven commodity from an inferior league makes very little sense.

Giving up Henry makes even less sense so soon after spending a large chunk of cash on him and then not letting him play his preferred position. There are enough games and enough injuries to give him a solid 20-30 starts as well as keeping Eto’o happy and Bojan in a solid rotation. Were I to wager on it, I’d say Eto’o gets a grand total of 23 goals, Henry 20, and Bojan 15. With Messi, Iniesta, Keita, Toure, and Hleb all contributing (especially San Leo), that makes for a pretty serious number of goals.

Outro: Henry has another year of stats that we shouldn’t forget to include. His performances of the 06/07 season shouldn’t be used to judge his career as a whole even if Barcelona’s stats are a bit skewed by his new position and new team. Adapting to a new role in a new home is never easy, especially not with the pressure Henry has been under, but let’s consider, for a moment, the stats available from 07/08:

League: 30 games, 12 goals (0.400 goals per game)
Champions League: 10 games, 3 goals (0.300 goals per game)
Copa del Rey: 2 games, 1 goal (0.500 goals per game)

I will not attempt to put a value on Henry’s performances as a winger compared to Eto’o’s as a forward, but it is good to note that Henry has the ability to score goals both in domestic and European competition despite Rijkaard’s tendency to put him on the wing. It is precisely for this reason (his positioning) that I have not included his stats from his year at Barça in the above comparison. It would not be fair at all to Henry nor would it further validate Eto’o’s continued stay at the club to compare the two. However, it must be noted that Eto’o floundered more than Henry when he was placed on the wings, which happened several times during the season (especially in the CL). Regardless of what that tidbit means, the comparison above between two strikers is the important part that must truly be considered.