Schizo Delight: Atlético Madrid-Barcelona Preview

Jekyll, meet Hyde; Hyde, this is Jekyll.

How do you preview a game between two sides that both alternate between flip and flop? Barcelona, of course, have an other-worldly record at home (unbeaten, with a goal difference of 50 to 4) and have pretty much embodied the word mediocre on the road (more draws than wins; just a plus-five goal differential; the last three games on the road in Spain have brought two draws and a loss). They’ve whupped up on European heavyweights like Bayer Leverkusen and Milan away, but chomped on the ashes of defeat at Osasuna and Getafe.

But if Barcelona seems like a study in paradox, check out Atlético Madrid on the far side of the jump.

Inconsistency, thy name is Atlético.  For years they’ve marshaled superhuman efforts (particularly against Barcelona in the Vicente Calderon) and coupled them with evenings spent lying belly up (especially against Real Madrid), sitting just quietly under a cork tree and smelling the flowers.  The monster named Atlético has beaten Barcelona three times in the past four years, including an amazing 4-3 fightback win three years ago; the flower-smelling Atlético has not won over the EE since the autumn of1999 – a pathetic run of 23 straight games.  Lots of flowers to smell in Madrid, apparently.

Atlético ready themselves for Real Madrid

This season the Atlético schizophrenia has abided by the calendar.  They stunk up most of the autumn of 2011, and then hired their former player Diego Simeone as 2012 began.

Guardiola & Simeone, back in the day (FCB Archive)

Immediately Simeone’s team began climbing back up the table, so they are now just a single point from a Champions’ League place.  This week they dismissed Lazio in the Europa League handily, with a 4-1 aggregate.  Since Simeone arrived, in fact, they haven’t lost in seven league matches, and have only only conceded a single goal in those seven games.  This does not resemble the Atlético of yore: recent Atlético-Barca dogfights have averaged five goals a game since Pep arrived in Barcelona.  What does resemble Atlético is the presence of a couple of blazing strikers — Radamel Falcao, the wonderboy from Porto, and Adrian Lopez.

So it’s an open and shut case.  The 2012 Atlético Jekyll beats the road-ridden Barcelona Hyde.  Looks like an easy one to predict, son.

But I’m here to tell you that Barca is going to win, and not for simply contrarian reasons.  Barca has been troubled all year by a plague of injuries and by the draining ravages of schedule.  But this week it’s Atlético who have to face those problems.  Their midfield creator Diego tore a muscle (sound familiar, Barca fans?) in Sunday’s draw against Sporting Gijon; defender Antonio Lopez and midfielder Arda Turan are also injured.  And Atlético had to play a Thursday night Europa League game just three days before they will take on Barca.  Admittedly, Adrian played only an hour, and Falcao a half-hour, but I still maintain that the team will be tired by the second half.

Meanwhile, Barcelona rested for an entire week.  When Barca has time to prepare for a game, physically and mentally, they are an entirely different team.  All but one of Barcelona’s Liga losses and draws have come after a midweek game, the single exception being a draw in the second game of the year (and even that one was less than five days after the first).  When they have time to rest and focus, Barca produces performances like… the past couple of Champions’ League finals, where they are the best team in the world.

And there’s one more reason for confidence.  Barca’s on a small roll, having outclassed Bayer Leverkusen and Valencia.  Which means, of course, that we’ve had sightings of the Caped Crusader.

Who was that Masked Boy?

Don’t tell me; you guessed.

Leo Messi has splashed out five goals in two games, spraying diamonds around the green green grass.  When Leo plays especially well, you can throw out all the other analysis, especially mine.  So what I’m saying is that the Caped Crusader will strike again; all our yesterdays at the Vicente Calderon may have lighted fools the way to dusty death, but those tales of sound and fury will signify nothing, this time.  Ya hoid it here first: another hat trick for Leo is coming, with most of the damage in the second half.

When he's happy, we're happy

Now for a short lineup discussion – keep it short because Pep never listens to me anyway.  (How do you turn up the volume here?)

Xavi has had a nice long rest, and will be back.  Both Alves and Mascherano had to sit against Valencia, so I’d expect them back against Atlético.  The curly Captain’s played an incredible amount lately; the club website tells us that he’s started 8 games in a row, and 16 of the last 18 matches.  (In fact, he hasn’t started this many games in a row since the start of the 2008-09 season.)  Time for him to sit, I think, though he’s playing great.  I guess the question mark is Fabregas, who seemed to have a little falling-out with Guardiola last game; I’ll guess he doesn’t play.

So here’s my best guess: Valdes; Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Abidal; Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta; Pedro (though I’d wish for Tello), Messi, and Alexis.   With Tello, Thiago, and Keita coming on for the last 20-30 minutes.

Last word belongs to Don Andres: “We just have to carry on enjoying Messi…”

Yes.  We’ll just have to do that.

Some Related Barcelona Posts:

• La Liga Preview: FC Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
• FC Barcelona 5 – 0 Atletico Madrid: The Hum of a Well Oiled Machine
• Copa del Rey Preview: Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona, Or, Echoes Of Another Clásico
• La Liga Preview and Player Match-Up: Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona, Or, Just Another Clásico
• A Match Made in a Monastery: Villareal-Barcelona Preview

Category: Barcelona, La Liga, Lineups, Messi, Preview, Team News